IMT vs Red Star Belgrade: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League12 September 202619°14 km/h

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IMTPossession & high press

Red Star BelgradePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Red Star Belgrade (60%)

1 · IMT 17%X 23%60% Red Star Belgrade · 2

17%

23%

60%

Analysis: IMT – Red Star Belgrade

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Red Star Belgrade's unbeaten streak of seven league matches sets the stage for this clash against IMT, who have yet to earn a point in four head-to-head meetings since 2023. The stark contrast in the expected goals (xG) figures highlights Red Star's attacking prowess, with 2.7 xG per match dwarfing IMT's 1.4. This offensive firepower positions the visitors as clear favorites, bolstered by a solid defense allowing just 0.63 expected goals against (xGA) per match.

Both teams deploy a high-pressing, possession-oriented style, which could lead to a congested midfield battle but may also create spaces behind the defensive lines. The model leans towards Red Star, giving them a 60% chance of victory. Meanwhile, the most probable scorelines suggest a close affair, with 1-1 and 1-2 both at 10% or higher. Yet, the visitors' superior xG figures indicate they should be able to carve out more significant opportunities.

IMT, despite their high press, struggle to convert possession into tangible results against top-tier opposition. Their xPoints of 11.6 compared to Red Star's 15.1 further emphasize this gap. While the hosts might disrupt Red Star's rhythm at times, their historical inability to secure a result against these opponents, albeit in a small sample size, is telling.

With an over 2.5 goals probability at 57% and both teams to score at 56%, the model suggests a relatively open match. Yet, Red Star's defensive record hints they might keep IMT at bay. A 1-2 victory for the visitors seems the most fitting outcome.

For bettors, the model's 60% probability for a Red Star Belgrade win suggests a meaningful edge over a break-even implied probability, making them the favored side to back in this market.

IMT

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #8xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Charly Soualio KeitaFxG 0.49 · xT 0.05
Tadija CojicFxG 0.28 · xT 0.11
Vasilije NovičićCMxG 0.24 · xT 0.07

Red Star Belgrade

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Aleksandar KataiFxG 0.80 · xT 0.18
Mirko IvanićLWxG 0.61 · xT 0.32
Nayair TiknizyanLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.33

Match prediction: IMT – Red Star Belgrade

Predicted score matrix

Red Star Belgrade →

IMT →

0–05.5%

0–19.6%

0–29.4%

0–36.0%

0–4+4.4%

1–05.2%

1–110.7%

1–29.9%

1–36.3%

1–4+4.6%

2–02.9%

2–15.5%

2–25.2%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.4%

3–01.0%

3–11.9%

3–21.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-110%
4.0-29%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,05–1,90

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Star Belgrade to win60%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Red Star Belgrade to win60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mohamed Abu Fani to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mohamed Abu Fani to score31%
Wendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

IMT 0Draw 0Red Star Belgrade 4

Goals: 3–15 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Red Star Belgrade are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IMT

Red Star Belgrade

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IMT (10–4)

Red Star Belgrade (18–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IMT

Red Star Belgrade

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IMT

Red Star Belgrade

The teams in numbers

Performance	IMT	Red Star Belgrade
Points	13	19
xPoints	11.6	15.1
xG per match	1.4	2.7
xGA per match	0.84	0.63
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.08

Playing style	IMT	Red Star Belgrade
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.34
Field tilt	0.57	0.75
xT per match	1	2.1
xTA per match	0.64	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	30	24
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	20
Entries into the box against	9	8
Pass completion %	0.72	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.78
Passes per match	307	495
Passes against per match	262	266
Switches of play per match	16.8	46.9
Long balls per match	29	50

Set pieces	IMT	Red Star Belgrade
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	5.4	4.9
Corners against per match	3.4	2.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.68
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.67

Other	IMT	Red Star Belgrade
Throw-in control	0.72	0.89

The goalkeepers	Ognjen Čančarević (IMT)	Matheus Lima Magalhães (Red Star Belgrade)
Saves	14	19
Save %	78%	91%
xG prevented	53%	66%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

IMT

Fixtures, form & tips

Red Star Belgrade

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IMT vs Red Star Belgrade according to our model?

The model gives Red Star Belgrade a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IMT 17%, draw 23%, Red Star Belgrade 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.