01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Radnik Surdulica to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serbian Super League19°0,1 mm13 km/h
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ZemunLow block & directvs
Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Radnik Surdulica (49%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.13 (+13 %)
Zemun – Radnik Surdulica · Serbian Super League
1 · Zemun 29%X 22%49% Radnik Surdulica · 2
29%
22%
49%
Analysis: Zemun – Radnik Surdulica
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Seven consecutive losses for Zemun set the stage for their clash against Radnik Surdulica, a team clearly in a better groove with 12 points thus far. The hosts’ repeated defeats underscore a deeper issue, reflected in their defensive lapses. Their xGA of 2.4 per match signals a vulnerability that a possession-based Surdulica, pressing high, is well-equipped to exploit.
Zemun’s direct style hasn't paid dividends, managing only 0.65 xG per match. In contrast, the visitors have been more productive, averaging 1.1 xG per match. This attacking edge, combined with Zemun’s porous defense, tilts the scales towards Surdulica. Despite the model's modest 49% win probability for the visitors, their tactical approach and recent form suggest they could get the job done.
While the model shows a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals, the real play is to back Surdulica. With odds at 2.10 on Bet365 for an away win, there’s value here worth considering. Most likely, this matchup leans towards a 1-2 victory for the visitors, aligning with both the expected goals and current form. This choice might not dazzle, but much like a well-placed defensive block, it could be just what pays the bills.
ZemunForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #11xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Nemanja BelakovićLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.21
- Novak PetrusićFxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Radnik SurdulicaForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #10xP/match #9Points #5
Key players
- Miloš PopovićFxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
- Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.62 · xT 0.03
- Aleksandar PejovićCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.35
Match prediction: Zemun – Radnik Surdulica
Predicted score matrix
Radnik Surdulica →
Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–110.1%
0–28.8%
0–35.0%
0–4+3.1%
1
1–06.4%
1–111.7%
1–29.7%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.4%
2
2–03.7%
2–16.3%
2–25.3%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.3%
3–21.9%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,10–1,69
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.75
Over 2,553%
@2.13EV+8%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Radnik Surdulica to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Martin Novaković to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Martin Novaković to score17%
- Ognjen Ilic to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.553% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
- Over 2.553% probability@2.05Bet365EV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.531% probability@3.50Bet365EV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Zemun | X | 2 · Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | EV+ 3% 2.10 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.07 |
| Pinnacle | 3.27 | 3.07 | EV+ 5% 2.15 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:03
Statistics
Key facts
- FK Zemun have lost 7 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Zemun
Radnik Surdulica
Zemun (3–16)
Radnik Surdulica (9–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Zemun
Radnik Surdulica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Zemun
Radnik Surdulica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Zemun | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 12 |
| xPoints | 5.3 | 11.1 |
| xG per match | 0.65 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Zemun | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 230 | 262 |
| Passes against per match | 459 | 352 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.1 | 14.9 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Zemun | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Other | Zemun | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Mladen Živković (Zemun) | Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 45 | 26 |
| Save % | 74% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 63% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica according to our model?
The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zemun 29%, draw 22%, Radnik Surdulica 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.