Burgos vs Granada Prediction: Home win 46% (11 Oct 2026)

Segunda División11 October 202612°16 km/h

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BurgosPossession control

GranadaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Burgos (46%)

1 · Burgos 46%X 29%25% Granada · 2

46%

29%

25%

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Analysis: Burgos – Granada

Oscar Nilsson · 3 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Burgos have had the upper hand in their head-to-head clashes with Granada since 2023, winning once and drawing three times out of four encounters. However, with such a small sample size, this streak carries less weight than the teams' current form and metrics. The hosts are on a roll with three consecutive victories, while Granada's recent form hasn’t been as convincing, evidenced by their lower points tally of eight compared to Burgos's fourteen.

The model gives Burgos a clear edge with a 46% chance of victory, contrasting sharply with Granada's 25%. The underlying numbers back this up: while both sides employ possession-based styles, Burgos have been more effective. Despite Granada's slightly higher xG per match of 1.3 compared to Burgos's 1.1, it's the hosts who have the marginally better xGA and points accrued, suggesting a more balanced overall performance.

The expected goals forecast leans towards Burgos. They are projected to score 1.47 goals against Granada's 1.03, with scorelines like 1-1 and 1-0 being the most probable outcomes. This aligns with the over/under market showing a 54% lean towards under 2.5 goals. With both teams sharing similar styles and the possibility of a tight, controlled game, a low-scoring affair seems plausible.

For bettors looking for an edge, Burgos appear the more attractive side to back given their superior current form and favorable model probabilities. The numbers suggest a 1-0 victory for the hosts, cementing their winning streak and capitalizing on Granada's inconsistencies.

Burgos

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #9xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Sergio GonzalezCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
David GonzalezRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
Álex Forés MendozaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06

Granada

Form WLDLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #4xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Manu LamaCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.34
Benedikt Steffen GimberCBxG 0.27 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Burgos – Granada

Predicted score matrix

Granada →

Burgos →

0–08.5%

0–18.1%

0–24.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.6%

1–112.8%

1–26.4%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.8%

2–19.1%

2–24.7%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.3%

3–14.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,47–1,03

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

–

Over 2,546%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Burgos to win46%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Burgos to win46%
Under 2.5 goals54%
David González Ballesteros to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
David González Ballesteros to score30%
Manuel Lama Maroto to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Burgos 1Draw 3Granada 0

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

Burgos CF come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burgos

Granada

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burgos (11–7)

Granada (10–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burgos

Granada

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burgos

Granada

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burgos	Granada
Points	14	8
xPoints	10.2	9.5
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.33

Playing style	Burgos	Granada
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.4	0.55
xT per match	0.94	0.99
xTA per match	0.94	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	22	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	13	8
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.67
Passes per match	350	324
Passes against per match	361	304
Switches of play per match	23.9	33.5
Long balls per match	35	44

Set pieces	Burgos	Granada
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	3.5	5.5
Corners against per match	6.5	3.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.65

Other	Burgos	Granada
Throw-in control	0.67	0.66

The goalkeepers	Ander Cantero (Burgos)	Raul Lizoain (Granada)
Saves	23	27
Save %	77%	71%
xG prevented	55%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Burgos

Fixtures, form & tips

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burgos vs Granada according to our model?

The model gives Burgos a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burgos 46%, draw 29%, Granada 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.