01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sporting Gijón or draw (X2)69%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Segunda División21°1,8 mm9 km/h
Läs på svenska
CádizBalanced & physicalvs
Sporting GijónPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Sporting Gijón (41%)
Cádiz vs Sporting Gijón · Segunda División
1 · Cádiz 29%X 30%41% Sporting Gijón · 2
29%
30%
41%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Cádiz – Sporting Gijón
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Cádiz's reliance on a balanced and physical game plan will be put to the test against Sporting Gijón's possession-based approach. With the visitors currently holding a more robust position in the league standings, it's no surprise that the model slightly favors them with a 41% probability of taking the win. The hosts, on the other hand, have a 29% chance of victory, and the draw is sitting at 30%.
The numbers paint a picture of a match likely to be low on fireworks. Expected goals are tight, with Cádiz at 1.04 and Sporting Gijón at 1.20, indicating a match that may hinge on small moments. The over-under for 2.5 goals is at 39%, further suggesting a subdued scoring affair. Most likely outcomes hover around the low-scoring 1-1 (14%) and 0-1 (12%) scorelines, with a 0-0 result also in the mix at 11%.
While the head-to-head record since 2023 shows an even split with two wins each in four matches, this sample is too small to outweigh the more comprehensive seasonal form and statistical expectations. Sporting Gijón’s slight edges in points collected and a more efficient defense, conceding only 0.93 expected goals against per match compared to Cádiz's 1.1, suggest they have the tools to control the game.
The most intriguing value may be found with Sporting Gijón to win at odds of 2.70 with Bet365. Given the visitors' form, defensive robustness, and possession advantage, this represents a potential edge. Overall, expect a tight encounter with the visitors likely to eke out a narrow victory. The model leans towards a scoreline of 1-1, with defenses taking center stage under the lights.
CádizForm DLLLD
League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #21xP/match #16Points #20
Key players
- Javi CastroCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
- Juan Díaz PeregrinaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Damián Rodríguez SousaCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Sporting GijónForm WLLWL
League ranking xG #22xGA #4xT #17xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Guille RosasRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
- Alexandre Corredera AlardiCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
- Pablo VazquezCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Cádiz – Sporting Gijón
Predicted score matrix
Sporting Gijón →
Cádiz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.0%
0–112.3%
0–27.6%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–010.7%
1–113.7%
1–27.9%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–05.8%
2–16.9%
2–24.1%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.0%
3–12.4%
3–21.4%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.1-011%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,04–1,20
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
–
Over 2,539%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sporting Gijón or draw (X2)69%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score24%
- Aimar Duñabeitia Madariaga to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCádiz 2Draw 0Sporting Gijón 2
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cádiz
Sporting Gijón
Cádiz (7–10)
Sporting Gijón (5–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cádiz
Sporting Gijón
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cádiz
Sporting Gijón
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cádiz | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| xG per match | 1 | 0.87 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.93 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Cádiz | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| xTA per match | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 395 | 364 |
| Passes against per match | 353 | 341 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.7 | 22.5 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Cádiz | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Other | Cádiz | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz) | Ruben Yanez (Sporting Gijón) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 16 |
| Save % | 76% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Celta Fortuna – Real Sociedad B10 October 2026
- Eldense – Córdoba10 October 2026
- Ceuta – Sabadell10 October 2026
- FC Andorra – Castellon11 October 2026
- Mallorca – Las Palmas11 October 2026
- Real Oviedo – Eibar11 October 2026
- Real Valladolid – Albacete11 October 2026
- Almería – Leganés11 October 2026
- CD Tenerife – Girona11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cádiz vs Sporting Gijón according to our model?
The model gives Sporting Gijón a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cádiz 29%, draw 30%, Sporting Gijón 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.