Eldense vs Córdoba Prediction: Home win 40% (10 Oct 2026)

Segunda División10 October 202619°11 km/h

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EldensePossession control

CórdobaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Eldense (40%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.50 (+10 %)

1 · Eldense 40%X 31%29% Córdoba · 2

40%

31%

29%

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Analysis: Eldense – Córdoba

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

A 40% win probability for Eldense sets the stage for this Segunda División clash, hinting at a slight edge for the home side. Both teams favor possession control, yet the model leans towards Eldense, who have shown a marginally better point accumulation and superior xPoints tally. However, the goal-scoring potential sits nearly even, with Eldense's expected goals slightly outstripping Córdoba's at 1.52 to 1.12.

The most likely scoreline projections—1-1 and 1-0—underline a tight contest, where defenses could play a crucial role. Notably, the small head-to-head sample of just two matches, where Eldense have yet to secure a victory, holds lesser weight than the present form and expected goals metrics. Despite Córdoba's stronger xG per match at 1.5, Eldense's defensive resilience with a lower xGA per match of 1.2 suggests they might edge out the visitors.

With the over 2.5 goals probability at an almost even split of 49% and a slightly higher chance of both teams scoring at 53%, this matchup leans towards a low-scoring affair. The smart play may rest with disciplined betting on a 1-0 Eldense victory, as the model's lean toward Eldense aligns with its slightly higher win probability.

Eldense

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #7xP/match #18Points #15

Key players

Justin SmithCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Carlos GuiraoCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.19

Córdoba

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #16xT #2xP/match #10Points #19

Key players

Isma RuizCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.33
Ruben AlvesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Eldense – Córdoba

Predicted score matrix

Córdoba →

Eldense →

0–07.4%

0–17.6%

0–24.5%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.4%

1–112.5%

1–26.8%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.2%

2–19.2%

2–25.2%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.2%

3–14.7%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,52–1,12

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

–

Over 2,549%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eldense or draw (1X)72%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eldense or draw (1X)72%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Guillermo Macho Muñoz to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Guillermo Macho Muñoz to score19%
Justin Smith to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eldense	X	2 · Córdoba
Betsafe	2.40	EV+ 7% 3.40	2.62
LeoVegas	2.38	EV+ 10% 3.50	2.60
Nordicbet	2.40	EV+ 7% 3.40	2.62

Odds updated 3 Oct, 19:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Eldense 0Draw 1Córdoba 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eldense

Córdoba

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eldense (8–10)

Córdoba (10–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eldense

Córdoba

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eldense

Córdoba

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eldense	Córdoba
Points	8	6
xPoints	9.7	9.5
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.26

Playing style	Eldense	Córdoba
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.58	0.62
xT per match	0.97	1.2
xTA per match	0.83	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	24	28
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.64
Passes per match	362	333
Passes against per match	375	241
Switches of play per match	29.6	29.4
Long balls per match	35	35

Set pieces	Eldense	Córdoba
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	6.4	4.8
Corners against per match	4.3	2.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.44

Other	Eldense	Córdoba
Throw-in control	0.62	0.76

The goalkeepers	Ramón Vila Rovira (Eldense)	Guilherme Fernandes (Córdoba)
Saves	28	13
Save %	74%	59%
xG prevented	48%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eldense

Fixtures, form & tips

Córdoba

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eldense vs Córdoba according to our model?

The model gives Eldense a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eldense 40%, draw 31%, Córdoba 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.