CD Tenerife vs Girona Prediction: Away win 40% (11 Oct 2026)

Segunda División11 October 20269°13,4 mm6 km/h

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CD TenerifePossession control

GironaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Girona (40%)

1 · CD Tenerife 28%X 32%40% Girona · 2

28%

32%

40%

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Analysis: CD Tenerife – Girona

Sofia Andersson · 3 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: A tightly balanced fixture between CD Tenerife and Girona is on the cards, with both teams displaying a penchant for possession control. The model slightly favors the visitors, reflecting a calculated inclination towards Girona with a 40% chance of victory compared to Tenerife's 28%. Yet, the most probable scoreline, 1-1, sits at 14%, hinting at a draw being a plausible outcome. With both teams eager to assert dominance in possession, expect a midfield battle where scoring opportunities may be scarce.

Tenerife’s defensive solidity shines through their numbers: an xGA of 0.97 per match suggests they are adept at suppressing chances. Girona, despite a slight edge in points, has a leaky defense with an xGA of 1.6, which could be Tenerife's window to pounce. However, Tenerife's attack, with an xG of just 0.88 per match, lacks the bite to consistently capitalize on defensive frailties, which makes a low-scoring encounter likely.

The clash of styles, both leaning heavily on maintaining control, might lead to a game of few chances, aligning with the 40% probability for over 2.5 goals. Girona’s slightly superior xG of 1.3 per match indicates they might edge the offensive exchanges, but Tenerife’s defensive posture could stifle their efforts. The conditions suggest a tactical stalemate, with any breakthrough likely being hard-won.

For punters eyeing value, Unibet offers Girona to win at 2.60. This is where the model sees an edge, aligning with Girona's higher win probability and scoring potential. Concluding on a sharp note, while a draw seems feasible, the numbers point to Girona having just enough to eke out a narrow 0-1 victory.

CD Tenerife

Form LDWLD

League ranking xG #21xGA #6xT #22xP/match #4Points #9

Key players

Enric GallegoFxG 0.59 · xT 0.01
Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.03
José León BernalCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

Girona

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #22xT #5xP/match #15Points #5

Key players

Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Alejandro FrancesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
Holmes Júnior Zamorano MuñozCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: CD Tenerife – Girona

Predicted score matrix

Girona →

CD Tenerife →

0–010.6%

0–111.9%

0–27.4%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.6%

1–113.6%

1–28.0%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–05.9%

2–17.1%

2–24.3%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.1%

3–12.6%

3–21.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-011%
4.0-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,08–1,20

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

–

Over 2,540%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Girona or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Girona or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Yáser Esnéider Asprilla Martínez to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Enrique Gallego Puigsech to score21%
Juan Jose Sanchez Romero to be booked25%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CD Tenerife

Girona

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

CD Tenerife (8–9)

Girona (14–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Girona

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Girona

The teams in numbers

Performance	CD Tenerife	Girona
Points	11	13
xPoints	10.7	8.9
xG per match	0.88	1.3
xGA per match	0.97	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.43

Playing style	CD Tenerife	Girona
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.45
xT per match	0.53	0.99
xTA per match	0.84	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	29	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	7	11
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.74
Passes per match	298	389
Passes against per match	461	389
Switches of play per match	26	27.4
Long balls per match	35	36

Set pieces	CD Tenerife	Girona
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	3.5	3.8
Corners against per match	3.4	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.4

Other	CD Tenerife	Girona
Throw-in control	0.66	0.74

The goalkeepers	Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)
Saves	10	29
Save %	53%	81%
xG prevented	24%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

CD Tenerife

Fixtures, form & tips

Girona

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CD Tenerife vs Girona according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Tenerife 28%, draw 32%, Girona 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.