01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Castellon to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Segunda División15°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
FC AndorraPossession & high pressvs
CastellonPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Castellon (50%)
FC Andorra vs Castellon · Segunda División
1 · FC Andorra 25%X 25%50% Castellon · 2
25%
25%
50%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: FC Andorra – Castellon
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Castellon arrives in Andorra with a formidable advantage: five consecutive victories, casting a long shadow over the hosts' prospects. While FC Andorra's high press and possession-oriented play might suggest potential for disruption, the numbers tell a different story. Castellon's expected goals tally of 1.75 dwarfs the home side's 1.11, hinting at a clinical edge that could prove decisive. The visitors' ability to control possession more effectively aligns with their robust form, which sees them topping Andorra both in actual points (19 vs. 6) and expected points (13.4 vs. 9.1).
Head-to-head encounters between these teams offer limited insight, comprising just two matches — both won by Castellon. With such a small sample, the current form and statistical probabilities weigh more heavily. The most likely outcomes of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 underscore Castellon's latent threat, even as the model favors them with a 50% win probability. The expected goals and Castellon's defensive solidity, allowing only 0.74 xGA per match, further suggest a defensive resilience that could thwart Andorra's attacks.
Given these dynamics, the over 2.5 goals market at 54% presents a viable angle but expect Castellon to edge a likely 1-2 victory. Bet365's odds on Castellon winning could prove value-laden for bettors siding with current form and statistical superiority.
FC AndorraForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #3xP/match #12Points #18
Key players
- Marc BombardoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
- Marti VilaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
- Marc Domènech CostaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
CastellonForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Ousmane CamaraFxG 0.67 · xT 0.04
- Alberto JimenezCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Israel SueroLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.31
Match prediction: FC Andorra – Castellon
Predicted score matrix
Castellon →
FC Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–19.7%
0–28.7%
0–35.1%
0–4+3.3%
1
1–06.0%
1–111.5%
1–29.7%
1–35.7%
1–4+3.7%
2
2–03.5%
2–16.2%
2–25.4%
2–33.2%
2–4+2.0%
3
3–01.3%
3–12.3%
3–22.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,11–1,75
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
–
Over 2,554%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Castellon to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Pablo Santiago López to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Pablo Santiago López to score29%
- Marc Bombardó Poyato to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Castellon50% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Castellon50% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Castellon50% probability@2.20LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Andorra | X | 2 · Castellon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.85 | 3.45 | EV+ 11% 2.22 |
| LeoVegas | 2.85 | 3.50 | EV+ 10% 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | 3.45 | EV+ 11% 2.22 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFC Andorra 0Draw 0Castellon 2
Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Key facts
- Castellon come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Andorra
Castellon
FC Andorra (12–15)
Castellon (14–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Andorra
Castellon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Andorra
Castellon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Andorra | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 19 |
| xPoints | 9.1 | 13.4 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.74 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | FC Andorra | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 439 | 498 |
| Passes against per match | 212 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 45.3 | 20.9 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 26 |
| Set pieces | FC Andorra | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Other | FC Andorra | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra) | Romain Matthys (Castellon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 16 |
| Save % | 50% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 86% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Celta Fortuna – Real Sociedad B10 October 2026
- Eldense – Córdoba10 October 2026
- Ceuta – Sabadell10 October 2026
- Mallorca – Las Palmas11 October 2026
- Cádiz – Sporting Gijón11 October 2026
- Real Oviedo – Eibar11 October 2026
- Real Valladolid – Albacete11 October 2026
- Almería – Leganés11 October 2026
- CD Tenerife – Girona11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Andorra vs Castellon according to our model?
The model gives Castellon a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Andorra 25%, draw 25%, Castellon 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.