Burgos vs Granada Prediction: Home win 46% (12 Oct 2026)

Segunda División12 October 202618°15 km/h

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BurgosPossession control

GranadaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Burgos (46%)

1 · Burgos 46%X 29%25% Granada · 2

46%

29%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burgos vs Granada (Segunda División, Monday, 12 October 2026): Burgos win 46%, draw 29%, Granada win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Burgos 1.47, Granada 1.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Burgos or draw 75%, Granada or draw 54%. Prediction updated Saturday, 3 October 2026.

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Analysis: Burgos – Granada

Oscar Nilsson · 10 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Burgos have maintained a slight edge over Granada in their recent matchups, holding an unbeaten streak of one win and three draws in their four meetings. This advantage, albeit in a small sample size, suggests that the hosts have found ways to stifle Granada's attacking threats. The model reflects this by favoring Burgos with a 46% chance of victory, supported by their modest lead in both points and xPoints this season.

Despite both teams favoring possession-based play, the expected goals hint at a tighter contest. Burgos average 1.47 expected goals per match compared to Granada's 1.03. This suggests the hosts might break through, but don't expect a barrage of goals. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 underline the potential for a low-scoring affair, with the over 2.5 goals at a near coin flip of 46%.

Granada, while trailing slightly in the current standings, have presented a more potent attacking threat with an xG of 1.6 per game. However, their defensive vulnerabilities mirror Burgos', each conceding 1.2 xGA per match. This defensive parity might keep the match finely balanced, allowing Burgos to capitalize on their slight edge in form and tactical discipline.

If you're looking for value, consider the home win offered at 2.38 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, or 2.375 with LeoVegas. The model's 46% probability suggests a 10% edge at these odds. While no outcome is certain, this pricing presents a favorable risk for punters siding with the hosts. All signs point toward Burgos potentially edging a close contest, with a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline within reach.

Burgos

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #10xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Sergio GonzalezCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
Jon Karrikaburu JaimerenaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.08
David GonzalezRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.11

Granada

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #15xT #4xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Manu LamaCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.01
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.33
Benedikt Steffen GimberCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Burgos – Granada

Predicted score matrix

Granada →

Burgos →

0–08.5%

0–18.1%

0–24.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.6%

1–112.8%

1–26.4%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.8%

2–19.1%

2–24.7%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.3%

3–14.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,47–1,03

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.68

Over 2,546%

@2.21EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Burgos to win46%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Burgos to win46%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Francisco José Sánchez Rodríguez to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Francisco José Sánchez Rodríguez to score29%
Manuel Lama Maroto to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Burgos46% probability@2.46PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
1 · Burgos46% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
1 · Burgos46% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burgos	X	2 · Granada
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.30	3.10	3.00
LeoVegas	EV+ 7% 2.30	3.15	3.05
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.30	3.10	3.00
Pinnacle	EV+ 14% 2.46	3.18	3.01

Odds updated 11 Oct, 06:21

Odds movement

1+4 %

42 %37 %

2.37 → 2.46

X-1 %

32 %27 %

3.21 → 3.18

2-4 %

33 %28 %

3.13 → 3.01

Over 2,5+1 %

46 %41 %

2.19 → 2.21

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 11/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Burgos 1Draw 3Granada 0

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burgos

Granada

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burgos (12–9)

Granada (13–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burgos

Granada

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burgos

Granada

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burgos	Granada
Points	14	11
xPoints	11.1	11
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.29

Playing style	Burgos	Granada
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.35	0.56
xT per match	0.95	1
xTA per match	1.2	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	22	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	15	8
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.68
Passes per match	333	333
Passes against per match	387	311
Switches of play per match	22.4	34.3
Long balls per match	34	44

Set pieces	Burgos	Granada
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.05
Corners per match	3.4	5.7
Corners against per match	6.7	3.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.63

Other	Burgos	Granada
Throw-in control	0.68	0.66

The goalkeepers	Ander Cantero (Burgos)	Raul Lizoain (Granada)
Saves	29	27
Save %	76%	71%
xG prevented	51%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Burgos

Fixtures, form & tips

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burgos vs Granada according to our model?

The model gives Burgos a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burgos 46%, draw 29%, Granada 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Granada?

The model expects 1.47 goals (xG) for Burgos and 1.03 for Granada, 2.51 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Burgos or draw (1X) 75%, Granada or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.