CD Tenerife vs Girona Prediction: Away win 40% (12 Oct 2026)

Segunda División12 October 202613°12 km/h

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CD TenerifePossession control

GironaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Girona (40%)

1 · CD Tenerife 28%X 32%40% Girona · 2

28%

32%

40%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for CD Tenerife vs Girona (Segunda División, Monday, 12 October 2026): CD Tenerife win 28%, draw 32%, Girona win 40%. Expected goals (xG): CD Tenerife 1.08, Girona 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: CD Tenerife or draw 60%, Girona or draw 72%. Prediction updated Saturday, 3 October 2026.

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Analysis: CD Tenerife – Girona

Sofia Andersson · 10 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Girona holds a slight edge in this matchup, based on a 40% probability of victory. Their xG of 1.3 per match contrasts starkly with Tenerife's 0.83, highlighting Girona's greater attacking potential. Both teams favor possession control, which might lead to a more cautious, strategic encounter as each team looks to outmaneuver the other.

Tenerife, with 11 points compared to Girona's 14, will be eager to close the gap. However, Girona's offensive capabilities, coupled with Tenerife's lower xGA of 1.2, suggest the visitors are more likely to find the net. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 further support Girona's slight favoritism, though the hosts' defensive resilience should not be underestimated.

The betting angles offer intriguing potential. The model suggests a 32% chance of a draw, slightly better than the odds of 3.15 offered by LeoVegas, presenting a 2% edge. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals scenario, rated at 60% (with overs at 40%), aligns with the play styles of both teams, although it carries no edge at odds of 1.667. The draw, therefore, is the most promising opportunity for value.

CD Tenerife

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #22xGA #8xT #22xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Ignacio Gil de Pareja VicentLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.03
Christian Pierre Louis GomisFxG 0.27 · xT 0.09

Girona

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #8xP/match #11Points #4

Key players

Holmes Júnior Zamorano MuñozCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Alejandro FrancesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
Yáser AsprillaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: CD Tenerife – Girona

Predicted score matrix

Girona →

CD Tenerife →

0–010.6%

0–111.9%

0–27.4%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.6%

1–113.6%

1–28.0%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–05.9%

2–17.1%

2–24.3%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.1%

3–12.6%

3–21.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-011%
4.0-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,08–1,20

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.68EV+0%

Over 2,540%

@2.19

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Girona or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Girona or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Javier Sarasa Camañes to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Javier Sarasa Camañes to score24%
Juan Jose Sanchez Romero to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Girona40% probability@2.65PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.560% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · CD Tenerife	X	2 · Girona
Betsafe	2.75	3.05	2.45
LeoVegas	2.75	EV+ 4% 3.20	2.50
Nordicbet	2.75	3.05	2.45
Pinnacle	2.87	3.06	EV+ 5% 2.65

Odds updated 11 Oct, 08:15

Odds movement

1-1 %

35 %30 %

2.90 → 2.87

X-1 %

33 %28 %

3.09 → 3.06

2+2 %

39 %34 %

2.60 → 2.65

Over 2,50 %

46 %41 %

2.19 → 2.19

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 11/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CD Tenerife

Girona

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

CD Tenerife (10–12)

Girona (14–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Girona

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Girona

The teams in numbers

Performance	CD Tenerife	Girona
Points	11	14
xPoints	11	11
xG per match	0.83	1.3
xGA per match	1.2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.39

Playing style	CD Tenerife	Girona
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.44	0.46
xT per match	0.53	0.96
xTA per match	0.92	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	28	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.21
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.71	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.74
Passes per match	287	392
Passes against per match	452	381
Switches of play per match	25.6	29.2
Long balls per match	34	37

Set pieces	CD Tenerife	Girona
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	4	4
Corners against per match	3.4	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.47

Other	CD Tenerife	Girona
Throw-in control	0.67	0.75

The goalkeepers	Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)
Saves	13	30
Save %	52%	81%
xG prevented	24%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

CD Tenerife

Fixtures, form & tips

Girona

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CD Tenerife vs Girona according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Tenerife 28%, draw 32%, Girona 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in CD Tenerife vs Girona?

The model expects 1.08 goals (xG) for CD Tenerife and 1.20 for Girona, 2.28 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

CD Tenerife or draw (1X) 60%, Girona or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 68%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.