Segunda División25°33 km/h

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    CádizCádizBalanced & physical
    1–2
    GironaGironaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Girona (51%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.07 (+8 %)

    Cádiz vs Girona · Segunda División

    1 · Cádiz 25%X 24%51% Girona · 2

    Analysis: Cádiz – Girona

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    A striking 51% tilt in favor of Girona sets the tone for this clash against Cadiz. Despite Girona's stronger start with 7 points to Cadiz's 3, the underlying metrics tell a more nuanced tale. Cadiz's xPoints of 6.5 suggest they might have been unlucky so far, outperforming Girona's 6.1. The hosts' balanced and physical approach contrasts sharply with Girona's tendency to sit deep and launch direct attacks, hinting at potential tension in tactical execution.

    Girona's superior xG per match of 1.2 against Cadiz's 0.98 indicates a slight offensive edge. However, Cadiz’s defensive numbers, conceding an xGA of 1.1 compared to Girona’s 1.6, might give them an edge in limiting chances. The close expected goals—Cadiz at 1.07 and Girona at 1.69—underline the likelihood of a tight contest, though Girona holds a slender advantage in offensive potency.

    The betting angle leans towards Girona, with a model-supported 51% chance of victory. The odds of 1.98 on Girona's win, available through Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, present a 0% edge value. The most probable outcomes circle around a 1-1 or a narrow Girona victory at 0-1 or 1-2, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 52%.

    CádizCádiz
    Form DDDLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #21xP/match #12Points #20
    Key players
    • Javi CastroCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
    • Álvaro Miguel García PascualFxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
    • Antonio José Cordero CampilloLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
    GironaGirona
    Form DLWWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #21xT #6xP/match #16Points #13
    Key players
    • Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    • Bryan GilFxG 0.35 · xT -0.01
    • Yáser AsprillaRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.27
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Cádiz 25% · Draw 24% · Girona 51%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - GironaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,30fair 7,02+4 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - CádizBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,49fair 17,44-28 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Cádiz – Girona

    Predicted score matrix

    Girona →
    Cádiz →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–110.3%
    0–29.0%
    0–35.1%
    0–4+3.2%
    1
    1–06.4%
    1–111.8%
    1–29.7%
    1–35.5%
    1–4+3.4%
    2
    2–03.6%
    2–16.1%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.8%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.2%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,07–1,69
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @1.82
    Over 2,552%
    @2.07EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Girona to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.42

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Girona to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Abel Ruiz Ortega to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Abel Ruiz Ortega to score25%
    • Alejandro Orellana Gómez to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 2.552% probability@2.07PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Girona51% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    • Over 2.552% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CádizX2 · Girona
    Betsafe3.403.30
    EV+ 2%
    2.02
    Betsson3.403.30
    EV+ 2%
    2.02
    Nordicbet3.403.30
    EV+ 2%
    2.02
    Pinnacle3.803.39
    EV+ 5%
    2.08

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.84 → 3.80

    X-3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.51 → 3.39

    2+6 %
    50 %45 %

    1.96 → 2.08

    Over 2,5+7 %
    51 %46 %

    1.93 → 2.07

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Cádiz
    Girona
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Cádiz (5–7)
    Girona (10–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Cádiz
    Javi Castro: 320 passningar, xT 0.32CastroDamián Rodríguez Sousa: 234 passningar, xT 0.18SousaJuan Díaz Peregrina: 165 passningar, xT 0.41PeregrinaBojan Kovačević: 129 passningar, xT 0.08KovačevićJokin Ezkieta: 107 passningar, xT 0.07EzkietaManuel Rivera Domínguez: 88 passningar, xT 0.12DomínguezAntonio José Cordero Campillo: 80 passningar, xT 0.25CampilloNoah Obioma Ukwuije: 78 passningar, xT 0.04UkwuijeUrko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi: 68 passningar, xT -0.11LertxundiMarc Olivier Doue: 62 passningar, xT 0.06DoueCristian Gutierrez: 56 passningar, xT 0.06Gutierrez
    Girona
    Alejandro Frances: 235 passningar, xT 1.01FrancesFran Beltrán: 228 passningar, xT 0.14BeltránAlex Moreno: 225 passningar, xT 1.51MorenoHolmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz: 189 passningar, xT 0.11MuñozPaulo Gazzaniga: 136 passningar, xT 0.05GazzanigaDavid Lopez: 132 passningar, xT 0.15LopezIvan Morante: 106 passningar, xT 0.14MoranteIzan González Muñoz: 105 passningar, xT -0.05MuñozArnau Martinez: 105 passningar, xT 0.14MartinezJuan Arango Junior: 84 passningar, xT 0.11JuniorBryan Gil: 73 passningar, xT 0.05Gil
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Cádiz
    Javi Castro: 320 passningar, xT 0.32CastroDamián Rodríguez Sousa: 234 passningar, xT 0.18SousaJuan Díaz Peregrina: 165 passningar, xT 0.41PeregrinaBojan Kovačević: 129 passningar, xT 0.08KovačevićJokin Ezkieta: 107 passningar, xT 0.07EzkietaManuel Rivera Domínguez: 88 passningar, xT 0.12DomínguezAntonio José Cordero Campillo: 80 passningar, xT 0.25CampilloNoah Obioma Ukwuije: 78 passningar, xT 0.04UkwuijeUrko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi: 68 passningar, xT -0.11LertxundiMarc Olivier Doue: 62 passningar, xT 0.06DoueCristian Gutierrez: 56 passningar, xT 0.06Gutierrez
    Girona
    Alejandro Frances: 235 passningar, xT 1.01FrancesFran Beltrán: 228 passningar, xT 0.14BeltránAlex Moreno: 225 passningar, xT 1.51MorenoHolmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz: 189 passningar, xT 0.11MuñozPaulo Gazzaniga: 136 passningar, xT 0.05GazzanigaDavid Lopez: 132 passningar, xT 0.15LopezIvan Morante: 106 passningar, xT 0.14MoranteIzan González Muñoz: 105 passningar, xT -0.05MuñozArnau Martinez: 105 passningar, xT 0.14MartinezJuan Arango Junior: 84 passningar, xT 0.11JuniorBryan Gil: 73 passningar, xT 0.05Gil

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCádizGirona
    Points37
    xPoints6.56.1
    xG per match0.981.2
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.28
    Playing styleCádizGirona
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.420.45
    xT per match0.551
    xTA per match0.661.3
    Won balls, offensive half2124
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.22
    Entries into the box per match912
    Entries into the box against1212
    Pass completion %0.780.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.74
    Passes per match381389
    Passes against per match362395
    Switches of play per match23.829.5
    Long balls per match2937
    Set piecesCádizGirona
    xG from free kicks0.010.08
    Corners per match4.84
    Corners against per match5.23.6
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.1
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.39
    OtherCádizGirona
    Throw-in control0.620.74
    The goalkeepersJokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)
    Saves2318
    Save %77%72%
    xG prevented59%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Cádiz
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Girona
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Cádiz vs Girona according to our model?

    The model gives Girona a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cádiz 25%, draw 24%, Girona 51%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.