Castellon vs CD Tenerife: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Segunda División19 September 202622°15 km/h

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CastellonPossession control

5–0

CD TenerifePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Castellon (64%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.93 (+2 %)

1 · Castellon 64%X 22%14% CD Tenerife · 2

64%

22%

14%

Analysis: Castellon – CD Tenerife

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Two games. That's the entirety of the head-to-head history between Castellon and CD Tenerife since 2023, and it's split right down the middle. Each side has taken one victory, a detail that might suggest parity but masks the more significant narrative driven by current form and underlying metrics. Castellon are on a three-match winning streak, a sequence that speaks to their growing confidence and tactical cohesion. Meanwhile, CD Tenerife have not managed to build similar momentum.

The underlying numbers add a layer of clarity. Castellon's expected goals (xG) sit at 1.95 per match, significantly overshadowing Tenerife's 0.84. This gulf in xG underscores Castellon's attacking prowess and suggests they are well-equipped to create quality chances. Defensively, Castellon also have the edge with an xGA of just 0.61 compared to Tenerife's 0.72, indicating a strong, well-organized backline that has consistently stifled opposing attacks.

Looking at the most likely scorelines, both 1-0 and 2-0 favor the hosts, each with a 12% probability. Castellon's dominant xPoints of 9.6 versus Tenerife's 8.1 further tip the scales in favor of the home side. The model suggests a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals, alongside a 49% probability for both teams to score, pointing to a game that could still produce goals at both ends.

For those seeking value, the model gives Castellon a win probability of 64%. Such a figure, given the outlined advantages, presents a compelling case for siding with the hosts. As Castellon's strengths align with both their statistical profile and recent performances, a 2-0 victory feels like the most grounded prediction.

Castellon

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Francisco Castillo ViñoloFxG 0.27 · xT 0.36
Ousmane CamaraFxG 0.56 · xT 0.02
Alberto JimenezCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10

CD Tenerife

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #19xGA #2xT #22xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Enric GallegoFxG 0.58 · xT 0.01
Ignacio Gil de Pareja VicentLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.03

Final score

5 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Castellon 64% · Draw 22% · CD Tenerife 14%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - TenerifeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 30,07fair 32,32-7 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CastellonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,22fair 6,08-14 %

Miss

Match prediction: Castellon – CD Tenerife

Predicted score matrix

CD Tenerife →

Castellon →

0–06.5%

0–14.9%

0–22.2%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.7%

1–110.4%

1–24.2%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.7%

2–19.8%

2–24.1%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.6%

3–16.4%

3–22.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.8%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.2-012%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

1,95–0,84

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.93

Over 2,553%

@1.93EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Castellon to win64%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Castellon to win64%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Pablo Santiago López to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Pablo Santiago López to score34%
Jesus Alvarez Aguado to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.553% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Castellon	X	2 · CD Tenerife
Betsafe	1.44	4.15	6.40
Betsson	1.44	4.15	6.40
Nordicbet	1.44	4.15	6.40
Pinnacle	1.49	4.46	6.83

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 2.15 to 1.93 (−10%).

1+1 %

67 %57 %

1.47 → 1.49

X-1 %

27 %17 %

4.51 → 4.46

2+8 %

21 %11 %

6.32 → 6.83

Over 2,5+14 %

58 %48 %

1.70 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Castellon 1Draw 0CD Tenerife 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

Castellon come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Castellon

CD Tenerife

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Castellon (7–2)

CD Tenerife (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Castellon

CD Tenerife

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Castellon

CD Tenerife

The teams in numbers

Performance	Castellon	CD Tenerife
Points	13	10
xPoints	9.6	8.1
xG per match	2.1	0.84
xGA per match	0.61	0.72
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.21

Playing style	Castellon	CD Tenerife
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.76	0.48
xT per match	1.8	0.52
xTA per match	0.57	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	25	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.2
Entries into the box per match	19	8
Entries into the box against	9	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.63
Passes per match	489	291
Passes against per match	268	435
Switches of play per match	21.8	29.6
Long balls per match	27	40

Set pieces	Castellon	CD Tenerife
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	6.8	3.7
Corners against per match	3.6	4.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.62

Other	Castellon	CD Tenerife
Throw-in control	0.72	0.67

The goalkeepers	Romain Matthys (Castellon)	Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)
Saves	10	8
Save %	83%	73%
xG prevented	74%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Castellon

Fixtures, form & tips

CD Tenerife

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Castellon vs CD Tenerife according to our model?

The model gives Castellon a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Castellon 64%, draw 22%, CD Tenerife 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.