Eldense vs Eibar: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Segunda División19 September 202620°20 km/h

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EldensePossession control

1–2

EibarLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Eibar (42%)

1 · Eldense 28%X 30%42% Eibar · 2

28%

30%

42%

Analysis: Eldense – Eibar

Erik Lindberg · 19 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A match built on defensive solidity and direct play is likely to unfold when Eldense host Eibar. The visitors are on a hot streak with four consecutive wins and have remarkably found the net in each of their last 12 league outings. Eibar's edge in both points and expected goals make them the favorites, according to the model's 42% probability, suggesting a controlled game where they might just eke out a result, perhaps a 0-1 victory.

Eldense, however, are no pushovers. Known for their possession-based approach, they will aim to frustrate their opponents by controlling the tempo. Yet, their expected goals tally is a modest 0.74 per match, which hints at a struggle to break down Eibar's disciplined defense. Their own defensive vulnerabilities are also laid bare with an xGA of 1.4 per match, compared to the visitors' more robust 0.88.

In four head-to-head encounters since 2023, Eibar have emerged victorious three times, although the sample size is small and less reliable than current form and statistical expectations. The most probable scorelines further underline a low-scoring affair, with a 1-1 draw or a narrow 0-1 away win emerging as likely outcomes. Given the expected goals data and playing styles, over 2.5 goals sits at 46%, pointing to a game that could just as easily stay under that mark.

For those seeking value, the away win at odds of 2.42 holds an edge with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, aligning with the model's suggestion of a 42% likelihood. This small margin presents a calculated opportunity for the cautious bettor, as Eibar look to extend their impressive run with another efficient performance on the road.

Eldense

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #21xGA #17xT #18xP/match #21Points #17

Key players

Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
David Ruiz MonteroLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Guillermo Macho MuñozCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.02

Eibar

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #17xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Jon BautistaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Adu AresRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Eldense 28% · Draw 30% · Eibar 42%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - EibarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,15fair 10,44-12 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CD EldenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,12fair 14,61-24 %

Miss

Match prediction: Eldense – Eibar

Predicted score matrix

Eibar →

Eldense →

0–08.4%

0–110.6%

0–27.5%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.6%

1–08.9%

1–113.0%

1–28.7%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.3%

2–17.3%

2–25.0%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.1%

3–12.8%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,16–1,37

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.70

Over 2,546%

@2.22EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eibar or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eibar or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score29%
Justin Smith to be booked27%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Eibar42% probability@2.56PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
2 · Eibar42% probability@2.48Betfair ExchangeEV+3%reference odds
Over 2.546% probability@2.22PinnacleEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eldense	X	2 · Eibar
Betfair Exchange	2.94	EV+ 2% 3.40	EV+ 3% 2.48
Betsafe	2.90	3.00	EV+ 1% 2.42
Betsson	2.90	3.00	EV+ 1% 2.42
Nordicbet	2.90	3.00	EV+ 1% 2.42
Pinnacle	3.04	3.15	EV+ 6% 2.56

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

1+4 %

34 %29 %

2.91 → 3.04

X+2 %

34 %29 %

3.09 → 3.15

2-1 %

40 %35 %

2.59 → 2.56

Over 2,50 %

45 %40 %

2.22 → 2.22

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Eldense 1Draw 0Eibar 3

Goals: 4–10 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar come into this round on 4 straight wins.
SD Eibar have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eldense

Eibar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eldense (3–6)

Eibar (10–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eldense

Eibar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eldense

Eibar

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eldense	Eibar
Points	5	12
xPoints	5.4	8.6
xG per match	0.74	1
xGA per match	1.4	0.88
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.18

Playing style	Eldense	Eibar
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.51	0.24
xT per match	0.67	0.67
xTA per match	0.91	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	23
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.24
Entries into the box per match	10	9
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.73	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.7
Passes per match	323	288
Passes against per match	420	487
Switches of play per match	21.9	23.6
Long balls per match	29	30

Set pieces	Eldense	Eibar
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	6.2	3.2
Corners against per match	4.4	4.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.54

Other	Eldense	Eibar
Throw-in control	0.66	0.66

The goalkeepers	Ramón Vila Rovira (Eldense)	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)
Saves	22	22
Save %	79%	88%
xG prevented	52%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eldense

Fixtures, form & tips

Eibar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eldense vs Eibar according to our model?

The model gives Eibar a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eldense 28%, draw 30%, Eibar 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.