Leganés vs Córdoba Prediction: Away win 37% (16 Oct 2026)

Segunda División16 October 202618°0,3 mm8 km/h

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LeganésBalanced & physical

CórdobaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Córdoba (37%)Soft draw

1 · Leganés 33%X 30%37% Córdoba · 2

33%

30%

37%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Leganés vs Córdoba (Segunda División, Friday, 16 October 2026): Leganés win 33%, draw 30%, Córdoba win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Leganés 1.31, Córdoba 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Leganés or draw 63%, Córdoba or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Leganés – Córdoba

Oscar Nilsson · 9 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Córdoba's possession-heavy style might just be the antidote for Leganés' physical approach. The visitors come into this match with a slight edge not just in the model probabilities, where they stand at 37% to win compared to Leganés' 33%, but also in the expected goals tally. Córdoba’s xG of 1.6 per match significantly outpaces the hosts' 1.1, hinting at a potential edge in creating quality chances.

While the head-to-head record since 2023 is too scant to weigh heavily—only two matches resulting in one draw and one loss for Leganés—it does offer a small insight into the visitors' capability to handle their opponents. More telling is the xPoints differential; Córdoba’s 12.0 against Leganés’ 9.0 reflects their superior underlying performance metrics. This aligns with the most likely scorelines, which favor a narrow win for the visitors, either 0-1 or 1-2.

The expected goals conceded per match further underlines the hosts' defensive fragility, with Leganés leaking an average of 1.7 goals per game compared to Córdoba's tighter 1.2. This defensive gap could be pivotal, especially considering Leganés' more physical but potentially less organized back line. The model reflects this, indicating a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 51%, suggesting the defenses might not have a quiet night.

For bettors, there's value in backing Córdoba, given their stronger xG numbers and the model's lean. While the match might start off as a balanced affair, Córdoba's ability to control possession could gradually tilt the game in their favor. A 1-2 result wouldn't just match the model's prediction but also capitalize on the market's oversight of the visitors' underlying strengths.

Leganés

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #22xT #11xP/match #21Points #10

Key players

Lalo AguilarCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Marvelous Antolín GarzónLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Naim GarciaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07

Córdoba

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #14xT #2xP/match #4Points #15

Key players

Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.32
Isma RuizCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Ruben AlvesCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Leganés – Córdoba

Predicted score matrix

Córdoba →

Leganés →

0–06.9%

0–18.9%

0–26.6%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.2%

1–112.5%

1–28.6%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.6%

2–18.0%

2–25.6%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.5%

3–13.5%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,31–1,42

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

–

Over 2,551%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Córdoba or draw (X2)66%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Córdoba or draw (X2)66%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Diego Pertejo Canseco to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Ismaël Seifallah Gharbi to score27%
Rubén González Alves to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Córdoba37% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Córdoba37% probability@2.90LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
2 · Córdoba37% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leganés	X	2 · Córdoba
Betsafe	2.20	EV+ 1% 3.40	EV+ 8% 2.90
LeoVegas	2.18	EV+ 4% 3.50	EV+ 8% 2.90
Nordicbet	2.20	EV+ 1% 3.40	EV+ 8% 2.90

Odds updated 9 Oct, 21:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Leganés 0Draw 1Córdoba 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leganés

Córdoba

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leganés (6–11)

Córdoba (13–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leganés

Córdoba

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leganés

Córdoba

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leganés	Córdoba
Points	11	9
xPoints	9	12
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.7	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.24

Playing style	Leganés	Córdoba
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.34	0.62
xT per match	0.9	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	20	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.3
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.66
Passes per match	333	340
Passes against per match	417	237
Switches of play per match	20.5	28.5
Long balls per match	27	34

Set pieces	Leganés	Córdoba
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	3	4.7
Corners against per match	5.5	2.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.5

Other	Leganés	Córdoba
Throw-in control	0.68	0.75

The goalkeepers	Luca Zinedine Zidane Fernández (Leganés)	Guilherme Fernandes (Córdoba)
Saves	25	13
Save %	74%	54%
xG prevented	51%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leganés

Fixtures, form & tips

Córdoba

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leganés vs Córdoba according to our model?

The model gives Córdoba a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leganés 33%, draw 30%, Córdoba 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Leganés vs Córdoba?

The model expects 1.31 goals (xG) for Leganés and 1.42 for Córdoba, 2.73 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Leganés or draw (1X) 63%, Córdoba or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.