Girona vs FC Andorra Prediction: Home win 51% (18 Oct 2026)

Segunda División18 October 202617°0,3 mm21 km/h

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GironaPossession control

FC AndorraPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Girona (51%)

1 · Girona 51%X 25%24% FC Andorra · 2

51%

25%

24%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Girona vs FC Andorra (Segunda División, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Girona win 51%, draw 25%, FC Andorra win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Girona 1.77, FC Andorra 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Girona or draw 76%, FC Andorra or draw 49%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Girona – FC Andorra

Marcus Johansson · 10 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The TEXT contains one unsupported claim: the bookmaker odds of 3.75 for Andorra are not in the FACTS.

CORRECTED TEXT:

The small sample size of Girona versus Andorra meetings offers little to anchor predictions, yet the current form and statistical projections paint a clearer picture. Girona's possession-based approach contrasts with Andorra's emphasis on high pressing, setting the stage for a tactical battle centered on control versus disruption. Despite Girona's preference for keeping the ball, Andorra's aggressive press could create opportunities for quick turnovers and counters.

Girona holds a tangible advantage in league standings with 14 points compared to Andorra's 7, and the xPoints confirm their edge at 11.0 against Andorra's 9.8. While both teams generate a similar xG per match of 1.3, Girona's defense appears more vulnerable, conceding an xGA of 1.5 compared to Andorra's 1.2. This defensive disparity could provide Andorra with openings, particularly if they exploit Girona's weaknesses during swift transitions.

The model probabilities further align with Girona's edge, giving them a 51% chance of victory. But the most likely scoreline projections suggest a tight contest, with 1-1 and 2-1 results leading the predictions. The expected goals forecast of 1.77 for Girona and 1.20 for Andorra reflects this, indicating a narrow margin of advantage. Despite Girona's statistical superiority, Andorra's pressing game might yield surprises, keeping the visitors within striking distance.

For bettors, the sharpest angle lies with the over 2.5 goals market, which stands at 57% likelihood. This leans towards value, suggesting an open game with scoring chances on both sides. The both teams to score market at 58% highlights this further. Despite Girona's higher win probability, an Andorra upset could offer worthwhile exploration, especially if they harness their pressing to capitalize on Girona's defensive lapses.

Girona

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #8xP/match #11Points #4

Key players

Holmes Júnior Zamorano MuñozCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Alejandro FrancesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
Yáser AsprillaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.22

FC Andorra

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #3xP/match #16Points #20

Key players

Marc BombardoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Marti VilaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
Efe AkmanCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Girona – FC Andorra

Predicted score matrix

FC Andorra →

Girona →

0–05.5%

0–15.8%

0–23.7%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.8%

1–111.2%

1–26.5%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.8%

3–15.7%

3–23.4%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.1%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,77–1,20

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Girona to win51%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Girona to win51%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Javier Sarasa Camañes to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Javier Sarasa Camañes to score32%
Efe Akman to be booked25%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Girona

FC Andorra

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Girona (14–8)

FC Andorra (12–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Girona

FC Andorra

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Girona

FC Andorra

The teams in numbers

Performance	Girona	FC Andorra
Points	14	7
xPoints	11	9.8
xG per match	1.3	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.32

Playing style	Girona	FC Andorra
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.46	0.72
xT per match	0.96	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.65
Won balls, offensive half	22	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.35
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	12	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	392	417
Passes against per match	381	210
Switches of play per match	29.2	43
Long balls per match	37	42

Set pieces	Girona	FC Andorra
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.01
Corners per match	4	4.5
Corners against per match	4	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.59

Other	Girona	FC Andorra
Throw-in control	0.75	0.71

The goalkeepers	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)	Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra)
Saves	30	11
Save %	81%	50%
xG prevented	51%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Girona

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Andorra

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Girona vs FC Andorra according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Girona 51%, draw 25%, FC Andorra 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Girona vs FC Andorra?

The model expects 1.77 goals (xG) for Girona and 1.20 for FC Andorra, 2.97 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Girona or draw (1X) 76%, FC Andorra or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.