Granada vs Cádiz Prediction: Home win 51% (18 Oct 2026)

Segunda División18 October 202616°2,5 mm6 km/h

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GranadaPossession control

CádizPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Granada (51%)

1 · Granada 51%X 27%22% Cádiz · 2

51%

27%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Granada vs Cádiz (Segunda División, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Granada win 51%, draw 27%, Cádiz win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Granada 1.66, Cádiz 1.09. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Granada or draw 78%, Cádiz or draw 49%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Granada – Cádiz

Anna Karlsson · 10 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The TEXT contains two issues: it omits that 1-1 (12%) is actually the single most likely scoreline (higher than the Granada-win scorelines it cites), and it includes a bookmaker odds claim (Bet365 2.00) that is not supported by the given facts.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Granada's ability to control possession has been a defining factor in their recent performances, and this match against Cádiz is no different. The hosts have demonstrated a knack for turning dominance on the ball into tangible results, as evidenced by their slightly higher expected goals (xG) per match of 1.6 compared to Cádiz's 1.2. This attacking edge will be crucial as they aim to leverage their home advantage and edge past a team that matches them in possession style but not necessarily in end product.

The 51% model probability in favor of Granada reflects their solid home form and superior points tally of 11 compared to Cádiz's 7. This numerical superiority is further supported by the expected goals, suggesting that Granada are more likely to create and convert scoring opportunities. Despite both teams' similar playing styles, the hosts have the slight upper hand in converting possession into promising positions.

However, Cádiz cannot be overlooked. They have shown resilience in head-to-head encounters, splitting results with Granada evenly across a small sample of four matches. Though the sample size is limited, it points to a certain level of competitiveness and unpredictability. Yet, with just a 22% probability of winning according to the model, their hopes seem more aligned with grinding out a draw than securing a victory in hostile territory.

The single most likely scoreline is actually a 1-1 draw (12%), narrowly ahead of a 1-0 or 2-1 Granada win (10% each), underlining how tight this contest is projected to be. With an over 2.5 goals probability of 52%, this match teeters on the edge of being a low-scoring tactical battle or slightly more open. The "both teams to score" market also indicates a competitive clash, standing at 54%.

While nothing is guaranteed, the numbers support a reasonable expectation of a Granada victory, though the closeness of the probabilities and the likelihood of a draw suggest the match could go either way.

Granada

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #15xT #4xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Manu LamaCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.01
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.33
Benedikt Steffen GimberCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.10

Cádiz

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #19xP/match #7Points #19

Key players

Javi CastroCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Vladyslav KopotunLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
Sergio ArribasLBxG 0.20 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Granada – Cádiz

Predicted score matrix

Cádiz →

Granada →

0–06.7%

0–16.6%

0–23.8%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.2%

1–111.9%

1–26.3%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.8%

2–19.6%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.9%

3–15.3%

3–22.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,66–1,09

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

–

Over 2,552%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Granada to win51%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Granada to win51%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Pedro Alemañ Serna to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Pedro Alemañ Serna to score23%
Javier Castro Urdín to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Granada 1Draw 2Cádiz 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Granada

Cádiz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Granada (13–13)

Cádiz (11–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Granada

Cádiz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Granada

Cádiz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Granada	Cádiz
Points	11	7
xPoints	11	11.5
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.22

Playing style	Granada	Cádiz
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.56	0.46
xT per match	1	0.72
xTA per match	0.75	0.72
Won balls, offensive half	28	25
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.73
Passes per match	333	386
Passes against per match	311	357
Switches of play per match	34.3	26.7
Long balls per match	44	31

Set pieces	Granada	Cádiz
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	5.7	4.1
Corners against per match	3.4	4.4
xG per corner	0.07	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.63

Other	Granada	Cádiz
Throw-in control	0.66	0.64

The goalkeepers	Raul Lizoain (Granada)	Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)
Saves	27	28
Save %	71%	76%
xG prevented	45%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Cádiz

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Granada vs Cádiz according to our model?

The model gives Granada a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Granada 51%, draw 27%, Cádiz 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Granada vs Cádiz?

The model expects 1.66 goals (xG) for Granada and 1.09 for Cádiz, 2.76 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Granada or draw (1X) 78%, Cádiz or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.