Segunda División

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    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad BLow block & direct
    vs
    AlmeríaAlmeríaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Almería (61%)

    Real Sociedad B vs Almería · Segunda División

    1 · Real Sociedad B 16%X 22%61% Almería · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Real Sociedad B vs Almería (Segunda División, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Real Sociedad B win 16%, draw 22%, Almería win 61%. Expected goals (xG): Real Sociedad B 0.94, Almería 1.86. Most likely score: 0-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Real Sociedad B or draw 39%, Almería or draw 84%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Real Sociedad B – Almería

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT contains two issues not supported by FACTS:

    1. The specific betting odds "1.80 with Bet365" are fabricated and not present in the FACTS. 2. The claim "the lean remains on a low-scoring affair" contradicts the FACTS, which show Over 2.5 goals favored at 53%.

    Corrected text:

    The glaring 61% model probability for Almería shines brightly over this matchup. With the visitors riding a wave of five consecutive victories, confidence will surely be on their side. In contrast, the hosts have been struggling, enduring a three-game losing streak. Almería's balanced and physical style is likely to overpower Real Sociedad B's low defence and direct approach.

    Expected goals tell a similar story: the visitors are almost doubling the hosts in potential, with 1.86 xG against 0.94. The direct play of Real Sociedad B might struggle against Almería's robust setup, making the 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline predictions appear plausible. The small head-to-head sample between these sides since 2023 has seen just one draw and a win for Almería, offering little weight against current form and model projections.

    For value seekers, Almería to win stands out as the clear lean given all indicators point toward an away victory. The over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 53%, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair, with both teams to score narrowly priced at 52%. An undercurrent of strategic dominance by the visitors is expected to dictate the evening.

    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    Form DWLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #21xT #21xP/match #15Points #16
    Key players
    • Gorka CarreraFxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
    • Gorka GorosabelCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
    • Kazunari KitaCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
    AlmeríaAlmería
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #5xP/match #6Points #3
    Key players
    • Federico BoniniCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
    • Sergio ArribasRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.35
    • Stefan DžodićCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Real Sociedad B – Almería

    Predicted score matrix

    Almería →
    Real Sociedad B →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–111.0%
    0–210.5%
    0–36.5%
    0–4+4.6%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–110.9%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.1%
    1–4+4.3%
    2
    2–02.7%
    2–15.0%
    2–24.6%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–00.8%
    3–11.6%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.2%
    4+–10.4%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-111%
    2. 2.1-111%
    3. 3.0-211%
    4. 4.1-210%
    5. 5.0-37%
    Expected goals
    0,94–1,86
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    –
    Over 2,553%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Almería to win61%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Almería to win61%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score26%
    • Alejandro José Muñoz Miguel to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Almería61% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
    • 2 · Almería61% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
    • 2 · Almería61% probability@1.95LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Real Sociedad BX2 · Almería
    Betsafe3.353.50
    EV+ 22%
    1.98
    LeoVegas3.303.60
    EV+ 20%
    1.95
    Nordicbet3.353.50
    EV+ 22%
    1.98

    Odds updated 10 Oct, 14:38

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Real Sociedad B 0Draw 1Almería 1
    Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 5)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Real Sociedad B have lost 3 in a row.
    • UD Almería come into this round on 5 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Real Sociedad B
    Almería
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Real Sociedad B (11–13)
    Almería (13–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 146 passningar, xT 0.15KitaJon Balda: 123 passningar, xT 0.2BaldaAitor Fraga: 120 passningar, xT 0.08FragaJon Garro Larrarte: 99 passningar, xT 0.15LarrarteIker Ropero Saizar: 94 passningar, xT 0.05SaizarTomás Carbonell del Rio: 91 passningar, xT 0.08RioLuken Beitia: 91 passningar, xT 0.14BeitiaIbai Aguirre Basurco: 90 passningar, xT 0.03BasurcoLander Astiazaran: 70 passningar, xT 0.09AstiazaranGorka Gorosabel: 59 passningar, xT 0.34GorosabelAlex Lebarbier: 58 passningar, xT 0.09Lebarbier
    Almería
    Federico Bonini: 290 passningar, xT 0.23BoniniMarcos Luna: 173 passningar, xT 0.81LunaJuan Brandáriz Movilla: 164 passningar, xT 0.08MovillaAndres Fernandez: 163 passningar, xT 0.07FernandezQuim Junyent Casanova: 148 passningar, xT 0.02CasanovaJavier Muñoz Jiménez: 140 passningar, xT 0.25JiménezSergio Arribas: 121 passningar, xT 0.59ArribasLeonardo Filipe da Cruz Lelo: 109 passningar, xT 0.25LeloAlex Munoz: 103 passningar, xT 0.09MunozStefan Džodić: 103 passningar, xT 0.19DžodićRodrigo Ely: 92 passningar, xT 0.12Ely
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 146 passningar, xT 0.15KitaJon Balda: 123 passningar, xT 0.2BaldaAitor Fraga: 120 passningar, xT 0.08FragaJon Garro Larrarte: 99 passningar, xT 0.15LarrarteIker Ropero Saizar: 94 passningar, xT 0.05SaizarTomás Carbonell del Rio: 91 passningar, xT 0.08RioLuken Beitia: 91 passningar, xT 0.14BeitiaIbai Aguirre Basurco: 90 passningar, xT 0.03BasurcoLander Astiazaran: 70 passningar, xT 0.09AstiazaranGorka Gorosabel: 59 passningar, xT 0.34GorosabelAlex Lebarbier: 58 passningar, xT 0.09Lebarbier
    Almería
    Federico Bonini: 290 passningar, xT 0.23BoniniMarcos Luna: 173 passningar, xT 0.81LunaJuan Brandáriz Movilla: 164 passningar, xT 0.08MovillaAndres Fernandez: 163 passningar, xT 0.07FernandezQuim Junyent Casanova: 148 passningar, xT 0.02CasanovaJavier Muñoz Jiménez: 140 passningar, xT 0.25JiménezSergio Arribas: 121 passningar, xT 0.59ArribasLeonardo Filipe da Cruz Lelo: 109 passningar, xT 0.25LeloAlex Munoz: 103 passningar, xT 0.09MunozStefan Džodić: 103 passningar, xT 0.19DžodićRodrigo Ely: 92 passningar, xT 0.12Ely

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceReal Sociedad BAlmería
    Points818
    xPoints10.211.7
    xG per match1.11.4
    xGA per match1.61.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.360.15
    Playing styleReal Sociedad BAlmería
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.30.5
    xT per match0.661
    xTA per match1.10.98
    Won balls, offensive half1821
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.280.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.27
    Entries into the box per match910
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.710.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.74
    Passes per match269420
    Passes against per match424320
    Switches of play per match24.619.6
    Long balls per match2829
    Set piecesReal Sociedad BAlmería
    xG from free kicks0.010.13
    Corners per match3.44
    Corners against per match65.4
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.52
    OtherReal Sociedad BAlmería
    Throw-in control0.670.68
    The goalkeepersAitor Fraga (Real Sociedad B)Andres Fernandez (Almería)
    Saves2620
    Save %67%83%
    xG prevented36%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Real Sociedad B
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Almería
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Real Sociedad B vs Almería according to our model?

    The model gives Almería a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Real Sociedad B 16%, draw 22%, Almería 61%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad B vs Almería?

    The model expects 0.94 goals (xG) for Real Sociedad B and 1.86 for Almería, 2.80 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Real Sociedad B or draw (1X) 39%, Almería or draw (X2) 84% and no draw (12) 78%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.