Swedish Ettan

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    ArlandaArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Hammarby TFFHammarby TFFPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby TFF (56%)

    Arlanda vs Hammarby TFF · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Arlanda 22%X 23%56% Hammarby TFF · 2

    Analysis: Arlanda – Hammarby TFF

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    With Hammarby TFF's possession-driven style meeting Arlanda's counter-attacking approach, the visitors look set to control the game. The model reveals a 56% win probability for Hammarby TFF, indicating their superior form and tactics. Arlanda's strategy of relying on crosses might be stifled by Hammarby TFF's high press, leaving the hosts with limited opportunities to exploit.

    The expected goals further underline this dynamic: Hammarby TFF are projected at 1.89 against Arlanda's 1.20. Defensive solidity tilts in favor of the visitors, who boast a xGA of just 0.84 per match, significantly better than Arlanda's 1.4. The most likely scorelines, edging towards a narrow 1-1 draw or a 1-2 away win, reflect this analysis. Although Arlanda could snag a goal through their counter-attacking prowess, Hammarby TFF's organized defense should limit overall damage.

    Though the head-to-head record only consists of one game, a Hammarby TFF win, it does lend slight support to the current form and expectation. The visitors also edge out in both actual and expected points, further asserting their slight dominance in the league so far.

    The over 2.5 goals market stands at 60%, but with Hammarby TFF's disciplined back line, a lower-scoring affair feels plausible despite the stats. Yet, with both teams to score also at 60%, a conservative play on both teams finding the net holds merit.

    ArlandaArlanda
    Form LWWLL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #11xP/match #14Points #10
    Key players
    • Carl NorbergRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.65
    • Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.29
    • Isac AntholmLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
    Hammarby TFFHammarby TFF
    Form LDDLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #1xP/match #7Points #3
    Key players
    • Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.25
    • Adam JohanssonFxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
    • Noah EkLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.45

    Match prediction: Arlanda – Hammarby TFF

    Predicted score matrix

    Hammarby TFF →
    Arlanda →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–18.3%
    0–28.1%
    0–35.1%
    0–4+3.7%
    1
    1–05.2%
    1–110.6%
    1–29.8%
    1–36.1%
    1–4+4.5%
    2
    2–03.3%
    2–16.2%
    2–25.8%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.7%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.5%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-16%
    Expected goals
    1,20–1,89
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    –
    Over 2,560%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hammarby TFF to win56%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.23

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hammarby TFF to win56%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Oskar Moczarny to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Oskar Moczarny to score24%
    • Mark Gorgos to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hammarby TFF56% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Hammarby TFF56% probability@1.82BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Hammarby TFF56% probability@1.82NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ArlandaX2 · Hammarby TFF
    Betsafe3.553.65
    EV+ 2%
    1.82
    Betsson3.553.65
    EV+ 2%
    1.82
    Nordicbet3.553.65
    EV+ 2%
    1.82

    Odds updated 16 Sept, 09:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Arlanda 0Draw 0Hammarby TFF 1
    Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 6)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Arlanda
    Hammarby TFF
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Arlanda (34–25)
    Hammarby TFF (46–18)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Carl Norberg: 207 passningar, xT 3.49NorbergErik Johansson Olsson: 198 passningar, xT 0.35OlssonYoas Yemane: 190 passningar, xT 0.52YemaneLeonard Kleist: 153 passningar, xT 0.52KleistMark Gorgos: 101 passningar, xT 0.2GorgosAdam Smedberg Lagh: 89 passningar, xT 0.24LaghMuktar Ahmed: 83 passningar, xT 0.06AhmedMario Butros: 74 passningar, xT 1.11ButrosIsac Giordano Eriksson: 70 passningar, xT 0.13ErikssonIsac Antholm: 63 passningar, xT 0.16AntholmAnton Charbachi: 54 passningar, xT 0Charbachi
    Hammarby TFF
    Noah Ek: 492 passningar, xT 3.66EkJesper Lindahl: 437 passningar, xT 1.02LindahlGent Elezaj: 275 passningar, xT 0.88ElezajBjörn Hedlöf: 254 passningar, xT 0.45HedlöfAdam Johansson: 201 passningar, xT 0.45JohanssonCasper Eklund: 181 passningar, xT 0.68EklundEssayas Lwampindy-Bofua: 157 passningar, xT -0.39Lwampindy-BofuaWilliam Loqvist: 151 passningar, xT -0.03LoqvistOskar Moczarny: 143 passningar, xT 0.14MoczarnySaah L Moses Jr: 129 passningar, xT 0.12JrElton Fischerström Opancar: 98 passningar, xT 0.12Opancar
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Carl Norberg: 207 passningar, xT 3.49NorbergErik Johansson Olsson: 198 passningar, xT 0.35OlssonYoas Yemane: 190 passningar, xT 0.52YemaneLeonard Kleist: 153 passningar, xT 0.52KleistMark Gorgos: 101 passningar, xT 0.2GorgosAdam Smedberg Lagh: 89 passningar, xT 0.24LaghMuktar Ahmed: 83 passningar, xT 0.06AhmedMario Butros: 74 passningar, xT 1.11ButrosIsac Giordano Eriksson: 70 passningar, xT 0.13ErikssonIsac Antholm: 63 passningar, xT 0.16AntholmAnton Charbachi: 54 passningar, xT 0Charbachi
    Hammarby TFF
    Noah Ek: 492 passningar, xT 3.66EkJesper Lindahl: 437 passningar, xT 1.02LindahlGent Elezaj: 275 passningar, xT 0.88ElezajBjörn Hedlöf: 254 passningar, xT 0.45HedlöfAdam Johansson: 201 passningar, xT 0.45JohanssonCasper Eklund: 181 passningar, xT 0.68EklundEssayas Lwampindy-Bofua: 157 passningar, xT -0.39Lwampindy-BofuaWilliam Loqvist: 151 passningar, xT -0.03LoqvistOskar Moczarny: 143 passningar, xT 0.14MoczarnySaah L Moses Jr: 129 passningar, xT 0.12JrElton Fischerström Opancar: 98 passningar, xT 0.12Opancar

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceArlandaHammarby TFF
    Points3641
    xPoints29.432.2
    xG per match1.41.6
    xGA per match1.40.84
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.26
    Playing styleArlandaHammarby TFF
    Build-up efficiency0.350.4
    Field tilt0.410.78
    xT per match1.51.7
    xTA per match1.50.73
    Won balls, offensive half3333
    Pressing intensity0.50.57
    Pressing efficiency0.290.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.27
    Entries into the box per match1122
    Entries into the box against148
    Pass completion %0.730.85
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.82
    Passes per match263487
    Passes against per match337285
    Switches of play per match18.112.6
    Long balls per match3325
    Set piecesArlandaHammarby TFF
    xG from free kicks0.140.21
    Corners per match3.55.8
    Corners against per match4.93.3
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.66
    OtherArlandaHammarby TFF
    Throw-in control0.420.67
    The goalkeepersAdam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF)
    Saves7446
    Save %76%74%
    xG prevented58%49%
    Claims103 (95%)81 (94%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Arlanda
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hammarby TFF
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Arlanda vs Hammarby TFF according to our model?

    The model gives Hammarby TFF a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arlanda 22%, draw 23%, Hammarby TFF 56%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.