FBK Karlstad vs Sollentuna: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan19 September 2026 16:00 CEST15°1,8 mm31 km/h

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FBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crosses

SollentunaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · FBK Karlstad (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sollentuna @ 3.40 (+5 %)

1 · FBK Karlstad 44%X 26%31% Sollentuna · 2

44%

26%

31%

Analysis: FBK Karlstad – Sollentuna

Oscar Nilsson · 14 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sollentuna's low defensive block might hold the key in their clash against FBK Karlstad, especially with the heavy rain in play. While Karlstad comes into this match with three consecutive wins, their counter-attacking style faces a weather challenge that could dampen their usually sharp offensive edge. The xG data favors Karlstad at 1.65 compared to Sollentuna's 1.40, suggesting the home side should create more opportunities. However, Sollentuna's direct approach, combined with their slightly better xGA of 1.2, gives them a shot to disrupt Karlstad's rhythm.

The tight head-to-head record since 2023, with each team having taken one win, highlights how evenly matched these sides can be. But it's a small sample size, less significant than current form and expected goals. Karlstad leads the points table with 37 compared to Sollentuna's 23, demonstrating a consistent edge throughout the season. Yet, the expected goals and points tell a more cautious tale for Sollentuna, who have underperformed their xPoints slightly.

Despite the model suggesting a 44% probability for a Karlstad win, the 31% win chance for Sollentuna at odds of 3.3 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a 2% value edge. For those looking for value, this might be the angle worth exploring. The statistical likelihood of a 1-1 draw at 11% and a 2-1 result for Karlstad at 9% further emphasizes a potentially tight encounter.

With over 2.5 goals priced at 59%, bettors might lean towards a more conservative under play given the weather conditions and defensive posturing of Sollentuna. Ultimately, while Karlstad appears the stronger side on paper, the value on the away win is a tempting proposition. As these angles suggest, don't overlook Sollentuna's potential to snatch an unexpected result on a rainy evening.

FBK Karlstad

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #8xP/match #3Points #9

Key players

Ludvig SteenFxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
Granit HanaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.11
Edgar Sarkis NavassardianFxG 0.43 · xT -0.02

Sollentuna

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #28xGA #9xT #21xP/match #26Points #23

Key players

Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.31
Emil StenstrandCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.48

Match prediction: FBK Karlstad – Sollentuna

Predicted score matrix

Sollentuna →

FBK Karlstad →

0–05.1%

0–16.3%

0–24.6%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.5%

1–111.3%

1–27.7%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.5%

2–19.0%

2–26.3%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.6%

3–15.0%

3–23.5%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.0%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.2-06%

Expected goals

1,65–1,40

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance FBK Karlstad or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance FBK Karlstad or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Granit Hana to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Granit Hana to score25%
Erik Lundell to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sollentuna31% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
2 · Sollentuna31% probability@3.40BetssonEV+5%reference odds
2 · Sollentuna31% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FBK Karlstad	X	2 · Sollentuna
Betsafe	1.92	3.45	EV+ 5% 3.40
Betsson	1.92	3.45	EV+ 5% 3.40
Nordicbet	1.92	3.45	EV+ 5% 3.40

Odds updated 17 Sept, 08:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

49 %44 %

1.95 → 1.92

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.45

2+3 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.40

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

FBK Karlstad 1Draw 1Sollentuna 1

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

FBK Karlstad come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FBK Karlstad

Sollentuna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FBK Karlstad (36–32)

Sollentuna (19–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FBK Karlstad

Sollentuna

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FBK Karlstad

Sollentuna

The teams in numbers

Performance	FBK Karlstad	Sollentuna
Points	37	23
xPoints	35.1	25.7
xG per match	1.6	1.1
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.23

Playing style	FBK Karlstad	Sollentuna
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.42	0.5
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	35	27
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.24
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.71	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.77
Passes per match	267	388
Passes against per match	430	397
Switches of play per match	19	13.2
Long balls per match	33	34

Set pieces	FBK Karlstad	Sollentuna
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.11
Corners per match	5.4	4.1
Corners against per match	4.4	4.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.63

Other	FBK Karlstad	Sollentuna
Throw-in control	0.48	0.58

The goalkeepers	Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad)	Oscar Franck (Sollentuna)
Saves	58	33
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	55%	37%
Claims	77 (89%)	68 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

FBK Karlstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Sollentuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FBK Karlstad vs Sollentuna according to our model?

The model gives FBK Karlstad a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FBK Karlstad 44%, draw 26%, Sollentuna 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.