Olympic vs Rosengård: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan20 September 2026 13:00 CEST16°2,9 mm31 km/h

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OlympicPossession & high press

RosengårdPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Olympic (42%)

1 · Olympic 42%X 22%36% Rosengård · 2

42%

22%

36%

Analysis: Olympic – Rosengård

Marcus Johansson · 15 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Since 2023, Olympic has faced Rosengård just once, with Olympic losing that meeting. However, with such a small sample size, this result shouldn't overshadow current form and the underlying numbers. Olympic's tendency to control possession and apply a high press mirrors Rosengård's style. This could lead to an intriguing tactical battle where both sides are keen to dominate the ball and press aggressively, potentially causing turnovers and transition opportunities.

Olympic's recent form sees them slightly underperforming their expected points, while Rosengård has been on a more stable trajectory. Rosengård holds a solid edge in traditional points, sitting at 34 compared to Olympic's 26, but the hosts boast a higher xG per match, hinting at a potential to surprise. Both teams have shown an ability to convert chances, and given the expected goals tally—1.74 for Olympic against 1.56 for Rosengård—a tight contest is likely.

The model suggests a slight preference for Olympic, with a 42% win probability. However, the most likely scorelines reflect a close affair, with 1-1 at 10% and 2-1 at 9%. The expectation for goals is strong, with a 64% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability for both teams to score. The predicted wet conditions may suppress goal-scoring slightly, but it's factored into the model's numbers, so the inclination towards goals remains.

From a betting perspective, there's clear value in backing Olympic at odds of 3.05 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the model's rating of their chances at 42%, these odds present a 28% edge. While not a guarantee, this represents a solid betting angle for those looking to capitalize on potentially undervalued probabilities.

Olympic

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #23xT #10xP/match #16Points #21

Key players

Albin SundgrenLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.30
Chibueze Blessing EjimoleFxG 0.46 · xT 0.12
Osama KhattabFxG 0.43 · xT 0.27

Rosengård

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #12xP/match #4Points #12

Key players

Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.34 · xT 0.34
Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17
Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.46 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Olympic – Rosengård

Predicted score matrix

Rosengård →

Olympic →

0–04.0%

0–15.4%

0–24.5%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.1%

1–110.3%

1–27.8%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.6%

2–18.7%

2–26.8%

2–33.5%

2–4+1.9%

3–03.3%

3–15.1%

3–23.9%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.1%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.3%

4+–22.6%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,74–1,56

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Olympic or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Olympic or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Alexander Robért to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Joel Voelkerling Persson to score27%
August Karlin to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Olympic42% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
1 · Olympic42% probability@3.05BetssonEV+28%reference odds
1 · Olympic42% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+28%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Olympic	X	2 · Rosengård
Betsafe	EV+ 28% 3.05	3.60	2.00
Betsson	EV+ 28% 3.05	3.60	2.00
Nordicbet	EV+ 28% 3.05	3.60	2.00

Odds updated 15 Sept, 11:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Olympic 0Draw 0Rosengård 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Olympic

Rosengård

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Olympic (38–43)

Rosengård (35–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Olympic

Rosengård

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Olympic

Rosengård

The teams in numbers

Performance	Olympic	Rosengård
Points	26	34
xPoints	28.8	33.9
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.21

Playing style	Olympic	Rosengård
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.39
Field tilt	0.5	0.6
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	1.5	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	33
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.49
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.83	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.73
Passes per match	408	381
Passes against per match	342	358
Switches of play per match	15.7	16.6
Long balls per match	31	31

Set pieces	Olympic	Rosengård
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.2
Corners per match	5.5	5.9
Corners against per match	5.6	3.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.65

Other	Olympic	Rosengård
Throw-in control	0.65	0.54

The goalkeepers	Joakim Persson (Olympic)	Alexander Cederfelt (Rosengård)
Saves	56	56
Save %	58%	71%
xG prevented	40%	70%
Claims	93 (94%)	105 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Olympic

Fixtures, form & tips

Rosengård

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Olympic vs Rosengård according to our model?

The model gives Olympic a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Olympic 42%, draw 22%, Rosengård 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.