Eskilsminne vs Tvååker: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan17 September 2026 19:00 CEST14°2,9 mm29 km/h

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EskilsminnePossession & high press

TvååkerCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Eskilsminne (47%)

1 · Eskilsminne 47%X 26%27% Tvååker · 2

47%

26%

27%

Analysis: Eskilsminne – Tvååker

Anna Karlsson · 17 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Eskilsminne's three-game losing streak is the elephant in the room as they face Tvååker, a team unbeaten in their last five league matches. Despite Eskilsminne's slide in form, the model positions them as favorites with a 47% win probability, suggesting a closer examination of their underlying metrics could reveal a path to redemption. The expected goals tell a nuanced story: Eskilsminne at 1.84 against Tvååker's 1.31 indicates the hosts should have the edge in offensive chances.

Historically, it's Tvååker who have dictated this fixture, boasting three wins out of the last five encounters. This small sample does weigh less in the face of Eskilsminne's superior expected goals and xPoints metrics for the season. The home side's possession and high-press approach could disrupt Tvååker's counter-attacking style, especially if they can capitalize on their expected goals advantage.

The most likely scorelines paint a balanced picture: 1-1 tops the list at 11%, followed by a 2-1 home win at 10%. The high probability for both teams to score (62%) and over 2.5 goals (61%) suggests an open game, although the expected rain might slightly temper this outlook. Nevertheless, with Eskilsminne's expected goals per match at 1.3 compared to Tvååker's 1.1, the attacking potential leans toward the hosts.

Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer value odds of 2.15 on an Eskilsminne win, aligning with the model's 47% probability — a subtle edge for those attuned to the data. Given the context, a 2-1 victory for the home side seems plausible, aligning with both the expected goals and the model's lean, while also nodding to the slight edge in value offered by the bookmakers.

Eskilsminne

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #6xP/match #15Points #22

Key players

Hugo LindahlFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Leo Frigell JanssonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.27
André GustafsonFxG 0.48 · xT -0.02

Tvååker

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #29xGA #25xT #16xP/match #23Points #13

Key players

Mergim LaciFxG 0.46 · xT 0.08
Victor KarlssonLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.43
Melvin SjölandRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Eskilsminne – Tvååker

Predicted score matrix

Tvååker →

Eskilsminne →

0–04.6%

0–15.3%

0–23.7%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.6%

1–110.6%

1–26.7%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.3%

2–19.5%

2–26.2%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.5%

3–15.8%

3–23.8%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–03.1%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,84–1,31

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.30

Over 2,561%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Eskilsminne to win47%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Eskilsminne to win47%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Baker Amer to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Baker Amer to score30%
Viggo Gustavsson to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Eskilsminne47% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Eskilsminne47% probability@2.15BetssonEV+1%reference odds
1 · Eskilsminne47% probability@2.15NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eskilsminne	X	2 · Tvååker
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 2.15	3.40	2.90
Betsson	EV+ 1% 2.15	3.40	2.90
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 2.15	3.40	2.90

Odds updated 17 Sept, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Tvååker win since 12 September — the odds have shortened from 3.40 to 2.90 (−15%).

1+16 %

50 %40 %

1.85 → 2.15

X-9 %

30 %20 %

3.75 → 3.40

2-15 %

34 %24 %

3.40 → 2.90

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Eskilsminne 1Draw 1Tvååker 3

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Tvååkers IF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Eskilsminne IF have lost 3 in a row.
Tvååkers IF are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eskilsminne

Tvååker

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eskilsminne (32–38)

Tvååker (28–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eskilsminne

Tvååker

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eskilsminne

Tvååker

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eskilsminne	Tvååker
Points	25	33
xPoints	28.9	26.6
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.25

Playing style	Eskilsminne	Tvååker
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.34
Field tilt	0.51	0.39
xT per match	1.6	1.4
xTA per match	1.5	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	29	22
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.27
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	15	17
Pass completion %	0.77	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	334	343
Passes against per match	349	407
Switches of play per match	21.1	18.3
Long balls per match	36	30

Set pieces	Eskilsminne	Tvååker
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.09
Corners per match	4.6	3.5
Corners against per match	5.1	7
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.6

Other	Eskilsminne	Tvååker
Throw-in control	0.55	0.58

The goalkeepers	Ian Pettersson (Eskilsminne)	Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker)
Saves	73	90
Save %	67%	77%
xG prevented	47%	69%
Claims	109 (97%)	89 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eskilsminne

Fixtures, form & tips

Tvååker

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eskilsminne vs Tvååker according to our model?

The model gives Eskilsminne a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eskilsminne 47%, draw 26%, Tvååker 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.