Swedish Ettan14°0,1 mm22 km/h

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    IFK StocksundIFK StocksundBalanced & physical
    vs
    Umeå FCUmeå FCPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Umeå FC (43%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · IFK Stocksund @ 2.72 (+3 %)

    IFK Stocksund vs Umeå FC · Swedish Ettan

    1 · IFK Stocksund 38%X 20%43% Umeå FC · 2

    Analysis: IFK Stocksund – Umeå FC

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The matchup between IFK Stocksund and Umeå FC underscores a potential goal-fest, with a 71% probability for over 2.5 goals. The expected goals are tightly matched — 1.78 for Stocksund and 1.92 for Umeå — highlighting a balanced yet slightly visitor-favored contest. Historically, Umeå has edged these encounters, but the sample size of five games is small and shouldn't overshadow the current form.

    Umeå FC's style of possession control could dictate the pace, while the physicality of the hosts might counterbalance with defensive grit. Despite Umeå holding a 43% model probability to win, the odds are teetering, with the most likely scorelines being quite close. The statistics reflect a subtle lean towards a narrow Umeå victory, perhaps a 1-2 scoreline, but the 1-1 draw remains on the cards at 9%.

    Given the model's indication, there’s a slight edge in backing the home side at odds of 2.72 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 38% win rate for Stocksund translates into a 3% edge, making this the sharpest angle in a tightly poised contest.

    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
    Form LLLLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #31xT #3xP/match #30Points #31
    Key players
    • Yosef RaufFxG 0.43 · xT 0.05
    • Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.57
    • Langston Jasper WennerlindLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.38
    Umeå FCUmeå FC
    Form LDWWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #28xT #25xP/match #13Points #25
    Key players
    • Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
    • Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.35
    • Robin HadadFxG 0.68 · xT -0.02

    Match prediction: IFK Stocksund – Umeå FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Umeå FC →
    IFK Stocksund →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.7%
    0–14.5%
    0–24.6%
    0–32.9%
    0–4+2.2%
    1
    1–04.1%
    1–18.7%
    1–28.1%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.9%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–17.5%
    2–27.2%
    2–34.6%
    2–4+3.5%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–14.5%
    3–24.3%
    3–32.7%
    3–4+2.0%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–31.8%
    4+–4+1.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-19%
    2. 2.1-28%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-35%
    Expected goals
    1,78–1,92
    Both teams to score
    71%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,7
    Under 2,529%
    –
    Over 2,571%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Umeå FC or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.75

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Umeå FC or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Steve Zishim Bawa to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score71%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Kasper Engström to score33%
    • Dary Izia Boto to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · IFK Stocksund38% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · IFK Stocksund38% probability@2.72BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · IFK Stocksund38% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · IFK StocksundX2 · Umeå FC
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    2.72    		3.802.12
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    2.72    		3.802.12
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    2.72    		3.802.12

    Odds updated 15 Sept, 13:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    IFK Stocksund 1Draw 2Umeå FC 2
    Goals: 10–11 (⌀ 4,2)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Umeå FC dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    IFK Stocksund
    Umeå FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    IFK Stocksund (41–50)
    Umeå FC (26–37)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    IFK Stocksund
    Sebastian Lager: 208 passningar, xT 1.17LagerDary Izia Boto: 199 passningar, xT -0.13BotoAxel Floric: 179 passningar, xT 0.29FloricMax Vogele: 162 passningar, xT 0.62VogeleLangston Jasper Wennerlind: 152 passningar, xT 2.2WennerlindJames Nene Sibeene: 132 passningar, xT 0.16SibeeneBen Magnusson: 101 passningar, xT 0.13MagnussonClaus Emilio Royo: 97 passningar, xT 0.1RoyoKasper Engström: 93 passningar, xT 0.52EngströmEnzo Stone Gibson Mougnol: 87 passningar, xT 0.07MougnolJakob Rhawi: 76 passningar, xT 0.09Rhawi
    Umeå FC
    David Ekman: 313 passningar, xT 0.52EkmanRasmus Andersson: 283 passningar, xT 0.39AnderssonJerry Essombe Mambingo: 160 passningar, xT 0.37MambingoFredrick Udoh Godwin: 147 passningar, xT 0.39GodwinHassan Abdi Hassan: 110 passningar, xT 0.48HassanEmmanuel Olawore: 93 passningar, xT 0.95OlaworeSimon Wagnsson: 90 passningar, xT 0.1WagnssonPontus Eriksson: 87 passningar, xT 0.23ErikssonStefan Lindmark: 76 passningar, xT 0.08LindmarkNeo Lindén: 72 passningar, xT 0.13LindénRobin Hadad: 58 passningar, xT 0.05Hadad
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    IFK Stocksund
    Sebastian Lager: 208 passningar, xT 1.17LagerDary Izia Boto: 199 passningar, xT -0.13BotoAxel Floric: 179 passningar, xT 0.29FloricMax Vogele: 162 passningar, xT 0.62VogeleLangston Jasper Wennerlind: 152 passningar, xT 2.2WennerlindJames Nene Sibeene: 132 passningar, xT 0.16SibeeneBen Magnusson: 101 passningar, xT 0.13MagnussonClaus Emilio Royo: 97 passningar, xT 0.1RoyoKasper Engström: 93 passningar, xT 0.52EngströmEnzo Stone Gibson Mougnol: 87 passningar, xT 0.07MougnolJakob Rhawi: 76 passningar, xT 0.09Rhawi
    Umeå FC
    David Ekman: 313 passningar, xT 0.52EkmanRasmus Andersson: 283 passningar, xT 0.39AnderssonJerry Essombe Mambingo: 160 passningar, xT 0.37MambingoFredrick Udoh Godwin: 147 passningar, xT 0.39GodwinHassan Abdi Hassan: 110 passningar, xT 0.48HassanEmmanuel Olawore: 93 passningar, xT 0.95OlaworeSimon Wagnsson: 90 passningar, xT 0.1WagnssonPontus Eriksson: 87 passningar, xT 0.23ErikssonStefan Lindmark: 76 passningar, xT 0.08LindmarkNeo Lindén: 72 passningar, xT 0.13LindénRobin Hadad: 58 passningar, xT 0.05Hadad

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIFK StocksundUmeå FC
    Points1423
    xPoints21.830.5
    xG per match1.51.7
    xGA per match1.91.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.28
    Playing styleIFK StocksundUmeå FC
    Build-up efficiency0.350.33
    Field tilt0.510.4
    xT per match1.61.3
    xTA per match1.41.5
    Won balls, offensive half2528
    Pressing intensity0.520.43
    Pressing efficiency0.250.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.29
    Entries into the box per match1313
    Entries into the box against1516
    Pass completion %0.810.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.72
    Passes per match376324
    Passes against per match339356
    Switches of play per match12.817.1
    Long balls per match2830
    Set piecesIFK StocksundUmeå FC
    xG from free kicks0.220.15
    Corners per match3.85.9
    Corners against per match4.65.8
    xG per corner0.010.06
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.480.51
    OtherIFK StocksundUmeå FC
    Throw-in control0.570.54
    The goalkeepersJakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund)Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC)
    Saves7250
    Save %61%68%
    xG prevented37%48%
    Claims101 (86%)60 (92%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    IFK Stocksund
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Umeå FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins IFK Stocksund vs Umeå FC according to our model?

    The model gives Umeå FC a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Stocksund 38%, draw 20%, Umeå FC 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 71% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.