Tvååker vs Trelleborgs FF: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan20 September 2026 13:00 CEST14°5,6 mm41 km/h

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TvååkerCounter-attacks & crosses

Trelleborgs FFPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Trelleborgs FF (53%)

1 · Tvååker 23%X 24%53% Trelleborgs FF · 2

23%

24%

53%

Analysis: Tvååker – Trelleborgs FF

Sofia Andersson · 15 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Trelleborgs FF's 53% win probability highlights their clear edge against Tvååker, despite the hosts' unbeaten streak in five league outings. The visitors' superior expected goals figures—1.85 compared to Tvååker's 1.15—underline a likely dominance in possession and pressing, typically leading to higher goal chances. Tvååker's counter-attack strategy may struggle to break Trelleborgs' high press, especially given the rain, which often dampens attacking play.

While a 1-1 draw at 11% is the model's most likely scoreline, the 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 (9%) outcomes suggest more weight on Trelleborgs FF securing the win. The visitors have not only a points lead (42 vs 33) but also better xPoints (31.7 vs 26.6), further reinforcing their upper hand. With both teams to score at a 58% chance and over 2.5 goals also at 58%, there’s an implied expectation of goals unless the weather takes a heavier toll than anticipated.

The clearest value lies with Trelleborgs to win at odds greater than 1.89, reflecting their statistical dominance. This bet mirrors the model's strong lean while accounting for a potential weather-induced tighter affair.

Tvååker

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #29xGA #25xT #16xP/match #23Points #13

Key players

Mergim LaciFxG 0.46 · xT 0.08
Victor KarlssonLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.43
Melvin SjölandRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.26

Trelleborgs FF

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #9xP/match #8Points #2

Key players

Johan BrannefalkRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.51
Oskar RuuskaRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.31
Kofi Fosuhene AsareFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Tvååker – Trelleborgs FF

Predicted score matrix

Trelleborgs FF →

Tvååker →

0–05.3%

0–18.9%

0–28.5%

0–35.2%

0–4+3.7%

1–05.4%

1–110.9%

1–29.8%

1–36.0%

1–4+4.3%

2–03.3%

2–16.1%

2–25.6%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.5%

3–01.3%

3–12.3%

3–22.2%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,15–1,85

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Trelleborgs FF to win53%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Trelleborgs FF to win53%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Vincent Poppler to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Vincent Poppler to score31%
Viggo Gustavsson to be booked18%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Tvååker	X	2 · Trelleborgs FF
Betsafe	4.20	3.65	1.68
Betsson	4.20	3.65	1.68
Nordicbet	4.20	3.65	1.68

Odds updated 15 Sept, 11:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Tvååker 0Draw 0Trelleborgs FF 1

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Tvååkers IF are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tvååker

Trelleborgs FF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tvååker (28–28)

Trelleborgs FF (44–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tvååker

Trelleborgs FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tvååker

Trelleborgs FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tvååker	Trelleborgs FF
Points	33	42
xPoints	26.6	31.7
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.13

Playing style	Tvååker	Trelleborgs FF
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.39	0.61
xT per match	1.4	1.5
xTA per match	1.6	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	22	37
Pressing intensity	0.51	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.34
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	17	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.71
Passes per match	343	354
Passes against per match	407	289
Switches of play per match	18.3	16.7
Long balls per match	30	31

Set pieces	Tvååker	Trelleborgs FF
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.16
Corners per match	3.5	5.4
Corners against per match	7	3.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.65

Other	Tvååker	Trelleborgs FF
Throw-in control	0.58	0.49

The goalkeepers	Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker)	Malte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF)
Saves	90	61
Save %	77%	74%
xG prevented	69%	38%
Claims	89 (89%)	115 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tvååker

Fixtures, form & tips

Trelleborgs FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tvååker vs Trelleborgs FF according to our model?

The model gives Trelleborgs FF a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tvååker 23%, draw 24%, Trelleborgs FF 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.