FC Trollhättan vs Eskilsminne: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan5 September 2026 16:00 CEST14°9,4 mm15 km/h

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FC TrollhättanPossession control

4–2

EskilsminnePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · FC Trollhättan (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Eskilsminne @ 3.50 (+11 %)

1 · FC Trollhättan 45%X 23%32% Eskilsminne · 2

45%

23%

32%

Analysis: FC Trollhättan – Eskilsminne

Erik Lindberg · 4 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

FC Trollhättan's quest for a first win against Eskilsminne since 2023 adds an intriguing narrative to this Ettan clash. Historically, Eskilsminne has been a thorn in Trollhättan's side, winning five out of their seven encounters. However, the hosts have reason to believe this might be their moment. The model gives Trollhättan a 45% chance of winning, with expected goals favoring them slightly at 1.81 compared to Eskilsminne's 1.43. Yet, Eskilsminne's knack for high-pressing and possession play poses a real threat.

Despite their historical dominance, Eskilsminne enters this match with only a slight edge in both points and expected points over Trollhättan. Their 25 points and 27.3 xPoints slightly overshadow Trollhättan's 22 and 22.4, respectively. In terms of goalscoring potential, Eskilsminne also leads the xG race by a narrow margin. However, with Trollhättan's superior xGA, the hosts might just hold the defensive edge needed to keep Eskilsminne at bay.

Expect a game of control and precision, with Trollhättan attempting to dictate the pace through possession. The forecasted rain could suppress the scoring slightly, but the high-scoring history of this fixture, with an average of 3.1 goals per meeting, suggests otherwise. The model leans towards goals, predicting over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. A 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline at 10%, closely followed by a 2-1 win for the hosts at 9%.

The real value lies with the visitors, though. Eskilsminne's win at odds of 3.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers a tempting 11% edge against the model's 32% probability. For those willing to stake a claim on Eskilsminne's enduring dominance in this matchup, the odds beckon.

FC Trollhättan

Form WLWWL

League ranking xG #22xGA #13xT #7xP/match #27Points #22

Key players

Melwin BergRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.28
Hugo TillyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
Filip SternerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16

Eskilsminne

Form WDWDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #5xP/match #15Points #17

Key players

Hugo LindahlFxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Leo Frigell JanssonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
André GustafsonFxG 0.50 · xT -0.02

Final score

4 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: FC Trollhättan 45% · Draw 23% · Eskilsminne 32%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Eskilsminne IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,04fair 9,31-14 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC TrollhattanBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,25fair 5,80-27 %

Hit

Match prediction: FC Trollhättan – Eskilsminne

Predicted score matrix

Eskilsminne →

FC Trollhättan →

0–04.2%

0–15.3%

0–24.0%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.9%

1–06.8%

1–110.4%

1–27.3%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.4%

2–19.2%

2–26.6%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.9%

3–15.5%

3–24.0%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.6%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,81–1,43

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.52

Over 2,563%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

FC Trollhättan to win45%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

FC Trollhättan to win45%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Hugo Tilly to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Hugo Tilly to score37%
Oliver Ocampo Hägglund to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Eskilsminne32% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
2 · Eskilsminne32% probability@3.50BetssonEV+11%reference odds
2 · Eskilsminne32% probability@3.50NordicbetEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FC Trollhättan	X	2 · Eskilsminne
Betsafe	1.82	3.70	EV+ 11% 3.50
Betsson	1.82	3.70	EV+ 11% 3.50
Nordicbet	1.82	3.70	EV+ 11% 3.50

Odds updated 4 Sept, 20:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a FC Trollhättan win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.55 to 1.82 (−29%).

1-29 %

53 %33 %

2.55 → 1.82

X+1 %

35 %15 %

3.65 → 3.70

2+52 %

43 %23 %

2.30 → 3.50

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

FC Trollhättan 0Draw 2Eskilsminne 5

Goals: 7–15 (⌀ 3,1)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Eskilsminne IF dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Trollhättan

Eskilsminne

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Trollhättan (24–31)

Eskilsminne (30–33)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Trollhättan

Eskilsminne

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Trollhättan

Eskilsminne

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Trollhättan	Eskilsminne
Points	22	25
xPoints	22.4	27.3
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.27

Playing style	FC Trollhättan	Eskilsminne
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.36
Field tilt	0.59	0.51
xT per match	1.6	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	32	29
Pressing intensity	0.58	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.27
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.72
Passes per match	506	339
Passes against per match	302	338
Switches of play per match	13.7	21.4
Long balls per match	25	36

Set pieces	FC Trollhättan	Eskilsminne
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.15
Corners per match	5.1	4.7
Corners against per match	4.2	4.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.58

Other	FC Trollhättan	Eskilsminne
Throw-in control	0.59	0.54

The goalkeepers	Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan)	Ian Pettersson (Eskilsminne)
Saves	41	66
Save %	76%	68%
xG prevented	55%	44%
Claims	77 (93%)	102 (98%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Trollhättan

Fixtures, form & tips

Eskilsminne

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Trollhättan vs Eskilsminne according to our model?

The model gives FC Trollhättan a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Trollhättan 45%, draw 23%, Eskilsminne 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.