AFC Malmö vs Åtvidaberg: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan5 September 2026 16:00 CEST15°6,3 mm42 km/h

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AFC MalmöPossession & high press

2–2

ÅtvidabergPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Åtvidaberg (40%)

1 · AFC Malmö 35%X 24%40% Åtvidaberg · 2

35%

24%

40%

Analysis: AFC Malmö – Åtvidaberg

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

AFC Malmö have found the back of the net in 11 straight league games, a streak that underscores their attacking prowess. Yet, Åtvidabergs FF holds a slight edge in expected goals per match (1.7 to 1.5), suggesting they are better at converting opportunities. Both teams adopt a possession and high press style, indicating an intense midfield battle. The single head-to-head match since 2023, won by Åtvidabergs, is too small a sample to overshadow current form and metrics.

With a 40% model probability favoring Åtvidabergs, the visitors are slightly more likely to edge this contest. Though the expected goals (1.47 for the hosts and 1.70 for the visitors) point to a narrow affair, the over 2.5 goals is favored at 61%. This aligns with both teams' scoring tendencies and the likelihood of open play despite the rain, which could dampen goal numbers slightly but is already factored into the model.

For bettors, the most intriguing angle is the over 2.5 goals market, given its 61% likelihood. The play here leans towards a 1-2 scoreline, with a preference for Åtvidabergs, supported by their leading edge in points and defensive metrics.

AFC Malmö

Form DLDLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #25xT #4xP/match #22Points #12

Key players

Fredrik MartinssonRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.36
Kevin HarletunFxG 0.31 · xT 0.12
André ReinholdssonFxG 0.32 · xT -0.03

Åtvidaberg

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #6xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Erik GrandeliusRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.32
Adam SamuelssonFxG 0.32 · xT 0.05
Haris RadetinacFxG 0.36 · xT 0.06

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: AFC Malmö 35% · Draw 24% · Åtvidaberg 40%

Match prediction: AFC Malmö – Åtvidaberg

Predicted score matrix

Åtvidaberg →

AFC Malmö →

0–04.5%

0–16.8%

0–26.1%

0–33.4%

0–4+2.1%

1–05.9%

1–110.8%

1–28.9%

1–35.1%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.5%

2–17.7%

2–26.6%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.3%

3–02.2%

3–13.8%

3–23.2%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.1%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,47–1,70

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Åtvidaberg or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Åtvidaberg or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Adam Samuelsson to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
André Reinholdsson to score28%
Jesper Lindvall to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

AFC Malmö 0Draw 0Åtvidaberg 1

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Ariana FC Malmö have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

AFC Malmö

Åtvidaberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

AFC Malmö (37–29)

Åtvidaberg (40–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AFC Malmö

Åtvidaberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AFC Malmö

Åtvidaberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	AFC Malmö	Åtvidaberg
Points	30	35
xPoints	23.8	29.6
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.12

Playing style	AFC Malmö	Åtvidaberg
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.34
Field tilt	0.55	0.62
xT per match	1.6	1.6
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	30	30
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.28
Entries into the box per match	17	15
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.77
Passes per match	409	448
Passes against per match	347	340
Switches of play per match	17.4	13.7
Long balls per match	37	31

Set pieces	AFC Malmö	Åtvidaberg
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.13
Corners per match	5.5	6.4
Corners against per match	4.9	5.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.65

Other	AFC Malmö	Åtvidaberg
Throw-in control	0.59	0.59

The goalkeepers	Philip Mårtensson (AFC Malmö)	Hugo Claesson (Åtvidaberg)
Saves	41	44
Save %	70%	61%
xG prevented	34%	40%
Claims	69 (92%)	78 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

AFC Malmö

Fixtures, form & tips

Åtvidaberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AFC Malmö vs Åtvidaberg according to our model?

The model gives Åtvidaberg a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AFC Malmö 35%, draw 24%, Åtvidaberg 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.