01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sollentuna or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Swedish Ettan14°2,4 mm13 km/h
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SollentunaPossession & high press1–0
GefleCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Sollentuna (41%)
Sollentuna – Gefle · Swedish Ettan
1 · Sollentuna 41%X 25%34% Gefle · 2
41%
25%
34%
Analysis: Sollentuna – Gefle
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: The brief head-to-head history between Sollentuna and Gefle, consisting of only three matches, shows a slight edge for the visitors, with two wins to Sollentuna's one. However, this small sample size holds less weight against the current form and statistical expectations for the upcoming clash. The model's numbers suggest a tighter contest, with Sollentuna slightly favored to win. This is a game where the hosts' possession-based approach will meet the visitors’ counter-attacking style, making strategic execution pivotal.
The slight statistical edge in points and xPoints leans towards Gefle, yet the expected goals and model lean suggest a narrow preference for Sollentuna. Gefle's ability to capitalize on counter-attacks could pose a threat, especially against Sollentuna's high press, which might leave spaces open. Despite the visitors' superior historical record, the underlying data paints a picture of balance, with both teams expected to score approximately 1.2 goals per match.
In terms of scoring potential, the expected goals (xG) figures hint at a closely contested match. Both sides average 1.2 xG per match, indicating similar offensive capabilities. However, Sollentuna boasts a better defensive metric with a lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.2 compared to Gefle's 1.5. This defensive solidity could be crucial in a match where fine margins are likely to decide the outcome.
With both teams expected to find the net, the probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 52%, suggesting a slight lean towards a high-scoring game. The model's top predicted scoreline is a 1-1 draw. In a game with balanced expectations, focusing on defensive discipline might be the key to unlocking value.
SollentunaForm DLWWL
League ranking xG #26xGA #9xT #16xP/match #25Points #26
Key players
- Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
- Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.34
- Emil StenstrandCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.48
GefleForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #23xGA #20xT #23xP/match #18Points #19
Key players
- Måns BerggrenFxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
- Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.32
- Mirza HasanbegovicFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sollentuna 41% · Draw 25% · Gefle 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Sollentuna FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,13fair 8,65-18 %
MissMatchresultat - Gefle IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,80fair 11,90-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Sollentuna – Gefle
Predicted score matrix
Gefle →
Sollentuna →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–17.7%
0–25.1%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.1%
1–112.4%
1–27.6%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.0%
2–18.9%
2–25.6%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.4%
3–22.8%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,49–1,27
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.98
Over 2,552%
@1.72
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sollentuna or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Jonathan Zeberga to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Jonathan Zeberga to score35%
- Mamadou Kouyate to be booked19%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sollentuna | X | 2 · Gefle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betsson | 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 14:38
Odds movement
10 %
40 %35 %
2.42 → 2.42
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.30 → 3.30
20 %
37 %32 %
2.62 → 2.62
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesSollentuna 1Draw 0Gefle 2
Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 3,3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sollentuna
Gefle
Sollentuna (18–27)
Gefle (25–37)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sollentuna
Gefle
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sollentuna
Gefle
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sollentuna | Gefle |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 24 |
| xPoints | 23.3 | 25.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Sollentuna | Gefle |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 385 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 386 | 437 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.4 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Sollentuna | Gefle |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.6 |
| Other | Sollentuna | Gefle |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| The goalkeepers | Oscar Franck (Sollentuna) | Max Croon (Gefle) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 60 |
| Save % | 67% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 38% |
| Claims | 68 (93%) | 75 (96%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sollentuna vs Gefle according to our model?
The model gives Sollentuna a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sollentuna 41%, draw 25%, Gefle 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.