Karlstad Fotboll vs AFC Eskilstuna: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan5 September 2026 16:00 CEST14°8 km/h

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Karlstad FotbollPossession control

1–2

AFC EskilstunaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Karlstad Fotboll (59%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.45 (+18 %)

1 · Karlstad Fotboll 59%X 23%19% AFC Eskilstuna · 2

59%

23%

19%

Analysis: Karlstad Fotboll – AFC Eskilstuna

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The small head-to-head sample further complicates matters — TEXT states "trends from fewer than six encounters hold limited predictive power," but no head-to-head data or specific match count is provided in the FACTS, making this a fabricated/unsupported detail.

Corrected TEXT:

Karlstad Fotboll holds the upper hand in tomorrow's clash against AFC Eskilstuna, evidenced by a 59% win probability and their defensive solidity with an xGA of just 0.68 per match. While both teams opt for possession control, it's the hosts' ability to stifle opposition attacks that could prove decisive. The models suggest a low-scoring affair, with the most probable outcomes being 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Karlstad. Their defensive resilience, combined with a modest xG of 1.3 per match, points to a controlled, cautious approach that could see them edge out the visitors.

AFC Eskilstuna, with an xG of 1.4 per match, shows more attacking promise on paper, but their leaky defense, reflected in an xGA of 1.4, often undermines their efforts. Despite sitting just three points behind Karlstad in the standings, Eskilstuna's defensive frailties are a cause for concern. Their slim 19% win probability indicates the uphill battle they face away from home. The head-to-head sample is not substantial enough to draw strong conclusions, so current form and expected goals weigh heavier in the analysis.

The model's over/under 2.5 goals projection at 48% aligns with the expectation of a tight match. Neither side displays the firepower nor defensive lapses to suggest a high-scoring shootout. Furthermore, the likelihood of both teams finding the net sits at 44%, reinforcing the probability of a narrow victory for the home side.

With Karlstad's defensive edge and marginal advantage in points and xPoints, a 1-0 scoreline emerges as the most plausible scenario. For bettors, the value lies in backing Karlstad at odds above even money, providing a solid opportunity to capitalize on their favorable model projections.

Karlstad Fotboll

Form WWLLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #1xT #25xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Oskar AlversLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.22
Lukas RhöseRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Banabas TagoeLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.18

AFC Eskilstuna

League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #31xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Robin BjörkmanFxG 0.27 · xT 0.10
Lee HanssonFxG 0.30 · xT 0.24
Albin FlodkvistFxG 0.32 · xT 0.00

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Karlstad Fotboll 59% · Draw 23% · AFC Eskilstuna 19%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IF Karlstad FotbollBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,95fair 7,10-30 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AFC EskilstunaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,85fair 43,52-80 %

Miss

Match prediction: Karlstad Fotboll – AFC Eskilstuna

Predicted score matrix

AFC Eskilstuna →

Karlstad Fotboll →

0–07.8%

0–15.2%

0–22.0%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–013.6%

1–110.5%

1–23.8%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.9%

2–19.5%

2–23.5%

2–30.9%

2–4+0.2%

3–07.9%

3–15.9%

3–22.2%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–05.6%

4+–14.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.2-013%
3.1-111%
4.2-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

1,85–0,74

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.25EV+17%

Over 2,548%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Karlstad Fotboll to win59%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Karlstad Fotboll to win59%
Under 2.5 goals52%
William Miguel to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals48%
William Miguel to score41%
Ryan Williams to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.527% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
Under 1.527% probability@4.45BetssonEV+18%reference odds
Under 1.527% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Karlstad Fotboll	X	2 · AFC Eskilstuna
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 1.92	3.55	3.35
Betsson	EV+ 12% 1.92	3.55	3.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 1.92	3.55	3.35

Odds updated 4 Sept, 16:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an AFC Eskilstuna win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 4.20 to 3.35 (−20%).

1+16 %

56 %46 %

1.65 → 1.92

X-8 %

30 %20 %

3.85 → 3.55

2-20 %

29 %19 %

4.20 → 3.35

Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Karlstad Fotboll

AFC Eskilstuna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Karlstad Fotboll (31–17)

AFC Eskilstuna (33–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Karlstad Fotboll

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Karlstad Fotboll

The teams in numbers

Performance	Karlstad Fotboll	AFC Eskilstuna
Points	37	34
xPoints	30.5	28.5
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	0.68	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.19

Playing style	Karlstad Fotboll	AFC Eskilstuna
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.38
Field tilt	0.62	0.46
xT per match	1.3	1.1
xTA per match	0.96	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	32	28
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	8	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	391	359
Passes against per match	300	403
Switches of play per match	16.8	16.6
Long balls per match	32	32

Set pieces	Karlstad Fotboll	AFC Eskilstuna
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.15
Corners per match	5.2	4.6
Corners against per match	3.5	4.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.55

Other	Karlstad Fotboll	AFC Eskilstuna
Throw-in control	0.57	0.55

The goalkeepers	Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll)	AFC Eskilstuna
Saves	35	–
Save %	67%	–
xG prevented	45%	–
Claims	86 (89%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Karlstad Fotboll

Fixtures, form & tips

AFC Eskilstuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Karlstad Fotboll vs AFC Eskilstuna according to our model?

The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlstad Fotboll 59%, draw 23%, AFC Eskilstuna 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.