Swedish Ettan

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    KarlbergKarlbergBalanced & physical
    vs
    Stockholm InternazionaleStockholm InternazionalePossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Stockholm Internazionale (66%)

    Karlberg vs Stockholm Internazionale · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Karlberg 15%X 19%66% Stockholm Internazionale · 2

    Analysis: Karlberg – Stockholm Internazionale

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record between Karlbergs BK and Stockholm Internazionale is minimal, with just two matches since 2023, each team claiming a win. This small sample size offers little predictive power compared to current form and underlying metrics. Stockholm Internazionale's four-match winning streak and their ability to score in 15 consecutive league encounters paint a picture of a side in fine attacking fettle.

    Despite their competitive spirit, Karlberg finds themselves with a mountain to climb. With a physical and balanced approach, they face a Stockholm side that excels in possession and a high pressing game. The visitors not only lead in points but also in expected metrics, showcasing better xG and significantly lower xGA per match than Karlberg. This suggests that Stockholm Internazionale’s defense is robust, likely limiting Karlberg's scoring opportunities.

    The model forecasts a 66% victory chance for Stockholm Internazionale, with 1-1 (11%) the single most likely scoreline, closely followed by 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 (9%). Interestingly, the expected goals tally (1.88 for the visitors versus 1.10 for the hosts) aligns with a close but decisive edge for the visitors. The expected goals also support a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals, though the defensive capabilities of Stockholm might suppress the hosts' potential to contribute multiple goals.

    Crucially, value lies in the betting odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, all pricing an away win at 1.62. With the model rating a 66% probability for Stockholm Internazionale to win, this presents a 6% edge for savvy bettors. All signs point toward backing the high-flying visitors to extend their winning run, with scorelines like 1-1 or 1-2 among the most likely outcomes, while the total goals may hover around the over 2.5 mark, driven by the visitors' attacking prowess.

    KarlbergKarlberg
    Form WLDLW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #14xP/match #10Points #16
    Key players
    • Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.26
    • Adam JemalFxG 0.44 · xT 0.17
    • Mattias MitkuFxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
    Stockholm InternazionaleStockholm Internazionale
    Form DWWWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #5xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Rasmus AllbäckLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
    • Lukas SunessonFxG 0.51 · xT 0.01
    • Swaibou ContaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.22

    Match prediction: Karlberg – Stockholm Internazionale

    Predicted score matrix

    Stockholm Internazionale →
    Karlberg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.4%
    0–19.2%
    0–28.9%
    0–35.6%
    0–4+4.0%
    1
    1–05.3%
    1–110.8%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.2%
    1–4+4.5%
    2
    2–03.1%
    2–15.8%
    2–25.5%
    2–33.4%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–01.1%
    3–12.1%
    3–22.0%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.1-36%
    Expected goals
    1,10–1,88
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    –
    Over 2,557%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Stockholm Internazionale to win66%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.18

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Stockholm Internazionale to win66%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Cameron Streete to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Cameron Streete to score36%
    • Ayo Rupia-Ellis to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Stockholm Internazionale66% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Stockholm Internazionale66% probability@1.62BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Stockholm Internazionale66% probability@1.62NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KarlbergX2 · Stockholm Internazionale
    Betsafe4.503.80
    EV+ 6%
    1.62
    Betsson4.503.80
    EV+ 6%
    1.62
    Nordicbet4.503.80
    EV+ 6%
    1.62

    Odds updated 15 Sept, 14:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Karlberg 1Draw 0Stockholm Internazionale 1
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Stockholm Internazionale come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • Stockholm Internazionale have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Karlberg
    Stockholm Internazionale
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Karlberg (29–31)
    Stockholm Internazionale (48–17)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Karlberg
    Filip Nieminen Eriksson: 237 passningar, xT 0.46ErikssonLukas Sietsema: 204 passningar, xT 0.98SietsemaAbiel Sequar: 196 passningar, xT 0.49SequarAdam Backman: 193 passningar, xT 0.26BackmanHugo Åslund: 190 passningar, xT 0.28ÅslundFelix Högberg: 183 passningar, xT 0.22HögbergMattias Mitku: 141 passningar, xT 0.6MitkuArgyrios Gkoulios: 125 passningar, xT 0.29GkouliosAladji Fati: 117 passningar, xT 0.01FatiNoah Tesfai Negash: 108 passningar, xT 0.23NegashMilan Lalic: 97 passningar, xT 0.76Lalic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Karlberg
    Filip Nieminen Eriksson: 237 passningar, xT 0.46ErikssonLukas Sietsema: 204 passningar, xT 0.98SietsemaAbiel Sequar: 196 passningar, xT 0.49SequarAdam Backman: 193 passningar, xT 0.26BackmanHugo Åslund: 190 passningar, xT 0.28ÅslundFelix Högberg: 183 passningar, xT 0.22HögbergMattias Mitku: 141 passningar, xT 0.6MitkuArgyrios Gkoulios: 125 passningar, xT 0.29GkouliosAladji Fati: 117 passningar, xT 0.01FatiNoah Tesfai Negash: 108 passningar, xT 0.23NegashMilan Lalic: 97 passningar, xT 0.76Lalic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKarlbergStockholm Internazionale
    Points2845
    xPoints31.438.6
    xG per match1.51.8
    xGA per match1.40.82
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.36
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.370.15
    Playing styleKarlbergStockholm Internazionale
    Build-up efficiency0.350.39
    Field tilt0.480.66
    xT per match1.41.6
    xTA per match1.50.98
    Won balls, offensive half2831
    Pressing intensity0.530.51
    Pressing efficiency0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.24
    Entries into the box per match1318
    Entries into the box against149
    Pass completion %0.820.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.78
    Passes per match374441
    Passes against per match375338
    Switches of play per match1318
    Long balls per match2738
    Set piecesKarlbergStockholm Internazionale
    xG from free kicks0.210.15
    Corners per match4.45.7
    Corners against per match4.32.7
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.54
    OtherKarlbergStockholm Internazionale
    Throw-in control0.60.64
    The goalkeepersArgyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg)Stockholm Internazionale
    Saves59–
    Save %73%–
    xG prevented52%–
    Claims76 (91%)–

    Teams & more matches this round

    Karlberg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Stockholm Internazionale
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Karlberg vs Stockholm Internazionale according to our model?

    The model gives Stockholm Internazionale a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlberg 15%, draw 19%, Stockholm Internazionale 66%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    1 28%X 21%2 51%
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    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.