01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (X2)58%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish Ettan12°2,7 mm16 km/h
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VasalundPossession controlvs
Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Assyriska FF (38%)Soft draw
Vasalund vs Assyriska FF · Swedish Ettan
1 · Vasalund 36%X 26%38% Assyriska FF · 2
36%
26%
38%
Analysis: Vasalund – Assyriska FF
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Vasalund's recent form is a glaring concern as they come into this matchup with three consecutive losses. Despite managing to find the net in eight straight league matches, their defense remains porous, conceding more than they score. This might be a critical flaw against an Assyriska side known for capitalizing on counter-attacks and crosses.
The visitors have dominated the head-to-head meetings, winning four of the last five encounters. While it's a small sample size and not definitive on its own, it complements their current better standing in both points and xPoints. Assyriska's ability to execute a quick transition game could exploit Vasalund's defensive vulnerabilities.
Model probabilities tilt slightly in favor of Assyriska, giving them a 38% chance of winning compared to Vasalund's 36%. The expected goals suggest a close match—Vasalund at 1.62 xG and Assyriska at 1.43 xG—but when you factor in the hosts' recent struggles, their slight xG edge falters. The likelihood of both teams scoring is significant at 61%, and the over 2.5 goals market is sitting at 59%, suggesting a match that shouldn't lack scoring opportunities.
The most likely scoreline appears to be 1-1, but given Assyriska's historical edge and current form, a 1-2 outcome seems more plausible. While the odds are tight, the market might undervalue Assyriska's chance of victory. Look to Bet365, offering odds of 2.80 for an Assyriska win, which provides a potential value that aligns with the model's lean. This is a matchup where the visitors could well capitalize on their tactical strengths and Vasalund's defensive lapses.
VasalundForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #28xT #21xP/match #28Points #25
Key players
- Ali KhanLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.41
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.19 · xT 0.23
- Christopher SliwoFxG 0.55 · xT 0.05
Assyriska FFForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #19xP/match #12Points #15
Key players
- Sebastian WändinRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
- Viktor WiderbergFxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
- Elias Ländin SjöblomLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.39
Match prediction: Vasalund – Assyriska FF
Predicted score matrix
Assyriska FF →
Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–16.4%
0–24.8%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.4%
1–111.3%
1–27.8%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.9%
2–26.4%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.8%
3–23.4%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.8%
4+–22.0%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,62–1,43
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
–
Over 2,559%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (X2)58%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Samuel Nnamani to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Elias Alarcon Mac Callum to score27%
- Esaias Torppa to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Assyriska FF38% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Assyriska FF38% probability@2.95BetssonEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Assyriska FF38% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vasalund | X | 2 · Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.00 | 3.75 | EV+ 13% 2.95 |
| Betsson | 2.00 | 3.75 | EV+ 13% 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.00 | 3.75 | EV+ 13% 2.95 |
Odds updated 16 Sept, 09:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesVasalund 1Draw 0Assyriska FF 4
Goals: 5–11 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Assyriska FF dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
- Vasalund have lost 3 in a row.
- Vasalund have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Assyriska FF have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vasalund
Assyriska FF
Vasalund (33–43)
Assyriska FF (35–34)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Assyriska FF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Assyriska FF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vasalund | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 29 |
| xPoints | 25 | 31.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Vasalund | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 374 | 294 |
| Passes against per match | 322 | 404 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.5 | 16.7 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Vasalund | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.71 |
| Other | Vasalund | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| The goalkeepers | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) | Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 53 | 58 |
| Save % | 68% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 40% |
| Claims | 78 (90%) | 100 (90%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vasalund vs Assyriska FF according to our model?
The model gives Assyriska FF a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 36%, draw 26%, Assyriska FF 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.