IFK Norrköping vs Örebro SK Prediction: Home win 71% (20 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan20 October 2026 19:00 CESTÖstgötaporten, Norrköping5°8 km/h

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IFK NorrköpingPossession & high press

Örebro SKPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Norrköping (71%)

1 · IFK Norrköping 71%X 16%13% Örebro SK · 2

71%

16%

13%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for IFK Norrköping vs Örebro SK (Swedish Superettan, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): IFK Norrköping win 71%, draw 16%, Örebro SK win 13%. Expected goals (xG): IFK Norrköping 2.37, Örebro SK 0.96. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: IFK Norrköping or draw 87%, Örebro SK or draw 29%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.

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Analysis: IFK Norrköping – Örebro SK

Anna Karlsson · 13 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

71% — that's the probability model's bold statement on IFK Norrköping's chances of taking three points against Örebro SK. This confidence springs from Norrköping's formidable home form and an 11-match unbeaten streak in the league. While Örebro's solitary head-to-head win in their only meeting since 2024 offers a curious footnote, it’s a small sample that holds less weight against the backdrop of season dominance and xG disparities.

The numbers paint a clear picture. With expected goals suggesting a 2.37 to 0.96 tilt, Norrköping's high-pressing strategy appears poised to crack Örebro's possession-based approach. Most probable scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 further underscore the hosts' attacking edge. While the visitors may control possession, they seem hard-pressed to match Norrköping's offensive firepower.

Value-conscious bettors may find an enticing opportunity in the over 2.5 goals market, given its 65% likelihood. Bet365's odds currently offer value on this over, where goals seem more likely than not. Aligning with the model's lean and the hosts' superior numbers, a 2-0 or 2-1 result seems to strike the right balance between probability and price.

IFK Norrköping

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Christoffer NymanFxG 0.61 · xT 0.01
Anton ErikssonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Ture SandbergRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.14

Örebro SK

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #13xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Karl HolmbergFxG 0.32 · xT 0.00
Ahmed YasinLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.16
Antonio YakoubFxG 0.24 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: IFK Norrköping – Örebro SK

Predicted score matrix

Örebro SK →

IFK Norrköping →

0–03.8%

0–13.2%

0–21.6%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.3%

1–18.4%

1–23.9%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.1%

2–19.6%

2–24.6%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.0%

3–17.6%

3–23.7%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.3%

4+–08.3%

4+–17.9%

4+–23.8%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-18%
4.1-08%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,37–0,96

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.25

Over 2,565%

@1.60EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

IFK Norrköping to win71%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

IFK Norrköping to win71%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Christoffer Nyman to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Christoffer Nyman to score30%
Jacob Ouro Ortmark to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · IFK Norrköping71% probability@1.81BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
1 · IFK Norrköping71% probability@1.81NordicbetEV+28%reference odds
1 · IFK Norrköping71% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Norrköping	X	2 · Örebro SK
Betsafe	EV+ 28% 1.81	3.83	4.00
LeoVegas	EV+ 27% 1.80	3.70	3.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 28% 1.81	3.83	4.00

Odds updated 15 Oct, 05:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Örebro SK win since 13 October — the odds have shortened from 5.00 to 3.85 (−23%).

1+20 %

61 %51 %

1.50 → 1.80

X-14 %

28 %18 %

4.30 → 3.70

2-23 %

26 %16 %

5.00 → 3.85

LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Norrköping 0Draw 0Örebro SK 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Norrköping FK are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Norrköping

Örebro SK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Norrköping (48–16)

Örebro SK (28–40)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Norrköping

Örebro SK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Norrköping

Örebro SK

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Norrköping	Örebro SK
Points	55	25
xPoints	41.7	30.6
xG per match	1.8	1.1
xGA per match	1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.22

Playing style	IFK Norrköping	Örebro SK
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.62	0.53
xT per match	1.7	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	38	29
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	12
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.81	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.77
Passes per match	440	428
Passes against per match	325	375
Switches of play per match	15.5	16
Long balls per match	33	29

Set pieces	IFK Norrköping	Örebro SK
xG from free kicks	0.21	0.14
Corners per match	5.5	5.1
Corners against per match	5.5	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.61

Other	IFK Norrköping	Örebro SK
Throw-in control	0.63	0.53

The goalkeepers	Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping)	Jakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK)
Saves	77	101
Save %	85%	72%
xG prevented	69%	56%
Claims	138 (89%)	147 (90%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Norrköping

Fixtures, form & tips

Örebro SK

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Norrköping vs Örebro SK according to our model?

The model gives IFK Norrköping a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Norrköping 71%, draw 16%, Örebro SK 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in IFK Norrköping vs Örebro SK?

The model expects 2.37 goals (xG) for IFK Norrköping and 0.96 for Örebro SK, 3.33 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

IFK Norrköping or draw (1X) 87%, Örebro SK or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 84%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.