01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Nordic United to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish SuperettanSödertälje Fotbollsarena, Södertälje8°25 km/h
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Nordic UnitedCounter-attacks & crossesvs
NorrbyCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Nordic United (47%)
Nordic United vs Norrby · Swedish Superettan
1 · Nordic United 47%X 24%28% Norrby · 2
47%
24%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nordic United vs Norrby (Swedish Superettan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Nordic United win 47%, draw 24%, Norrby win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Nordic United 1.87, Norrby 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Nordic United or draw 72%, Norrby or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Nordic United – Norrby
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Nordic United finds themselves at the heart of a tightly contested matchup, with a narrow edge in the probabilities. A home win is backed by 47% odds, a figure that suggests stability for those who favor calculated risks. With a keen eye for defensive solidity and controlled play, the hosts seem well-prepared to hold their ground against Norrby. Their xG per match of 1.4 slightly tops that of their visitors, highlighting a marginal offensive edge. However, this is a game where subtleties could dictate the outcome more than outright flair.
In the limited head-to-head encounter since 2024, both teams settled for a draw, suggesting no overwhelming dominance. Yet, the small sample size tempers the weight this carries in the analysis. Instead, the expected goals align more closely with Nordic United’s form, indicating a likely advantage, albeit a slim one. The most probable scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—underscore a match that might see goals, but not a deluge.
Norrby, sitting nine points behind in the league table but boasting a superior xPoints tally, brings an intriguing angle to the narrative. Their playing style, mirroring that of Nordic United with counter attacks and crosses, suggests an equal tactical battle. However, the numbers slightly favor the hosts, especially with the expected goals tipping the scales towards them at 1.87 to 1.17.
For the shrewd punter, the true value lies in backing Nordic United with Betsafe or Nordicbet at odds of 2.23, a 5% edge according to the model, or with LeoVegas at odds of 2.2, a 4% edge. This is not about chasing high odds but capitalizing on a sound statistical advantage. Betting on the stability of the home side at these odds seems the prudent play, a bet that marries both value and likelihood, grounded in the cautious approach that often pays off.
Nordic UnitedForm WLDLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #15xT #3xP/match #10Points #8
Key players
- Mohammad FazalLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
- Amar EminovicLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
- Theodor JohanssonLBxG 0.15 · xT 0.09
NorrbyForm LLLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #12xP/match #3Points #13
Key players
- Vidar SvendsénCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Julius JohanssonFxG 0.20 · xT 0.17
- Olle BacklundRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: Nordic United – Norrby
Predicted score matrix
Norrby →
Nordic United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–15.3%
0–23.3%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.7%
1–110.8%
1–26.1%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.8%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.2%
3–16.1%
3–23.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,87–1,17
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.35
Over 2,559%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Nordic United to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Shergo Shhab to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Shergo Shhab to score28%
- Charlie Axede to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Nordic United47% probability@2.41BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Nordic United47% probability@2.41NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Nordic United47% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nordic United | X | 2 · Norrby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 14% 2.41 | 3.59 | 2.70 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 11% 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 14% 2.41 | 3.59 | 2.70 |
Odds updated 14 Oct, 14:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Norrby win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 3.10 to 2.60 (−16%).
1+16 %
47 %37 %
2.02 → 2.35
X-7 %
30 %20 %
3.75 → 3.50
2-16 %
37 %27 %
3.10 → 2.60
Over 2,5+4 %
66 %56 %
1.48 → 1.53
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesNordic United 0Draw 1Norrby 0
Goals: 0–0
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nordic United
Norrby
Nordic United (38–42)
Norrby (30–35)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nordic United
Norrby
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nordic United
Norrby
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nordic United | Norrby |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 36 | 27 |
| xPoints | 35.7 | 39.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Nordic United | Norrby |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 379 | 299 |
| Passes against per match | 405 | 453 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 19.5 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Nordic United | Norrby |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.5 |
| Other | Nordic United | Norrby |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| The goalkeepers | William Eskelinen (Nordic United) | Sebastian Banozic (Norrby) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 82 |
| Save % | 63% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 54% |
| Claims | 86 (95%) | 164 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Ljungskile – Brage17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Sandviken – Östersund17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Falkenberg – Landskrona BoIS17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Öster – Oddevold17 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- GIF Sundsvall – IFK Värnamo18 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Varbergs BoIS – Helsingborgs IF19 October 2026 19:05 CEST
- IFK Norrköping – Örebro SK20 October 2026 19:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nordic United vs Norrby according to our model?
The model gives Nordic United a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordic United 47%, draw 24%, Norrby 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Nordic United vs Norrby?
The model expects 1.87 goals (xG) for Nordic United and 1.17 for Norrby, 3.04 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Nordic United or draw (1X) 72%, Norrby or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.