Öster vs Oddevold Prediction: Away win 39% (17 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan17 October 2026 17:00 CESTMyresjöhus Arena, Växjö3°21 km/h

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ÖsterCounter-attacks & crosses

OddevoldLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Oddevold (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Öster @ 2.91 (+1 %)

1 · Öster 35%X 26%39% Oddevold · 2

35%

26%

39%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Öster vs Oddevold (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Öster win 35%, draw 26%, Oddevold win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Öster 1.53, Oddevold 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Öster or draw 61%, Oddevold or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Öster – Oddevold

Oscar Nilsson · 12 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: A striking feature in this matchup is the model's probabilities: Oddevold holds a slight edge at 39%, while Öster sits at 35%. This suggests that the visitors have a sharper edge than bookmakers might reflect. In terms of expected goals, Öster actually leads with 1.53 to Oddevold's 1.40, indicating a closely contested battle. The most likely scorelines also reflect this tight matchup, with the model nodding towards a 1-1 draw at 12%.

Despite Öster's strong home win rate at 57% across 28 matches, their recent head-to-head record against Oddevold is small and may not significantly influence the outcome here. A deeper look into the metrics—like xPoints and xGA—reinforces Oddevold's superior form this season. They boast xPoints of 43.1 compared to Öster's 30.6, while also maintaining a much sturdier defense with only 1.1 xGA per match.

Given these insights, Oddevold seems undervalued at odds around 2.60 with Bet365. The potential for both teams scoring is high at 59%, and with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals, expecting a lively game isn't unreasonable. A 1-2 win for Oddevold is a plausible outcome, predicated on their stronger all-around metrics in this matchup.

Öster

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #11xP/match #13Points #7

Key players

Tatu VarmanenRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Mattis AdolfssonCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Raymond AdjeiRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Oddevold

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #7xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Alexander AlmqvistLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Oscar Iglicar BerntssonLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.18
Gustav ForssellFxG 0.21 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Öster – Oddevold

Predicted score matrix

Oddevold →

Öster →

0–05.7%

0–17.1%

0–25.2%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.1%

1–07.9%

1–111.8%

1–28.0%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.3%

2–18.8%

2–26.1%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.2%

3–14.5%

3–23.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,53–1,40

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.18

Over 2,556%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oddevold or draw (X2)60%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oddevold or draw (X2)60%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Leonardo Farah Shahin to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Samuel Burakowsky to score20%
Erik Hedenquist to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Öster35% probability@2.91BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Öster35% probability@2.91NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Öster	X	2 · Oddevold
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 2.91	3.56	2.28
LeoVegas	2.85	3.50	2.20
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 2.91	3.56	2.28

Odds updated 14 Oct, 17:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Oddevold win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 2.70 to 2.20 (−19%).

1+24 %

41 %31 %

2.30 → 2.85

X+3 %

31 %21 %

3.40 → 3.50

2-19 %

43 %33 %

2.70 → 2.20

LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Öster 2Draw 1Oddevold 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Östers IF win 57% of their home matches all-time (28 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Öster

Oddevold

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Öster (38–40)

Oddevold (40–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Öster

Oddevold

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Öster

Oddevold

The teams in numbers

Performance	Öster	Oddevold
Points	36	39
xPoints	30.6	43.1
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.21

Playing style	Öster	Oddevold
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.37
Field tilt	0.45	0.44
xT per match	1.4	1.5
xTA per match	1.8	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	28	40
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	14
Entries into the box against	20	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	381	330
Passes against per match	387	451
Switches of play per match	14.1	16.1
Long balls per match	29	29

Set pieces	Öster	Oddevold
xG from free kicks	0.21	0.12
Corners per match	5.1	5.8
Corners against per match	6.3	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.54

Other	Öster	Oddevold
Throw-in control	0.57	0.45

The goalkeepers	Carl Lundahl Persson (Öster)	Morten Sætra (Oddevold)
Saves	112	72
Save %	76%	71%
xG prevented	54%	51%
Claims	149 (86%)	159 (94%)

Teams & more matches this round

Öster

Fixtures, form & tips

Oddevold

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Öster vs Oddevold according to our model?

The model gives Oddevold a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Öster 35%, draw 26%, Oddevold 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Öster vs Oddevold?

The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Öster and 1.40 for Oddevold, 2.93 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Öster or draw (1X) 61%, Oddevold or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.