01 · 2 legs
Safe
- IFK Värnamo to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Swedish SuperettanNP3 Arena, Sundsvall4°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
GIF SundsvallLow block & directvs
IFK VärnamoPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · IFK Värnamo (50%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.50 (+1 %)
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Värnamo · Swedish Superettan
1 · GIF Sundsvall 25%X 25%50% IFK Värnamo · 2
25%
25%
50%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Värnamo (Swedish Superettan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): GIF Sundsvall win 25%, draw 25%, IFK Värnamo win 50%. Expected goals (xG): GIF Sundsvall 1.18, IFK Värnamo 1.70. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: GIF Sundsvall or draw 50%, IFK Värnamo or draw 75%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: GIF Sundsvall – IFK Värnamo
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The clash between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Värnamo hinges on contrasting styles: Sundsvall's low defensive line and direct approach versus Värnamo's possession-based control. This tactical dichotomy suggests a game where Sundsvall might look to disrupt Värnamo's rhythm with quick transitions, while the visitors aim to dictate tempo and exploit defensive lapses. The model gives the visitors a substantial 50% win probability, reinforcing the expectation that Värnamo's current form could prove decisive.
A deeper dive into the numbers reveals a nuanced picture. While Sundsvall's xPoints edge (32.5 to 30.8) suggests they've been slightly unlucky, Värnamo's consistent scoring streak across 10 league games cannot be overlooked. The expected goals (xG) figures lean towards Värnamo, projecting 1.70 against Sundsvall's 1.18, pointing to the visitors' superior attacking potential. However, Sundsvall's defensive vulnerabilities are apparent with an xGA of 1.5, which Värnamo will likely exploit.
The head-to-head record is minimal with just one match, where Sundsvall fell short. However, this sample size is too small to heavily influence predictions. Instead, focus shifts to Värnamo's attacking continuity and Sundsvall's defensive frailties. Most likely scorelines favor a Värnamo victory, with 1-1 and 1-2 being prominent outcomes. The model suggests a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 55%, but the 57% chance of both teams scoring indicates a competitive contest.
The sharpest angle here lies in the under 3.5 goals market. Despite an elevated chance for goals, the cautious under 3.5 at odds 1.5 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet holds a 1% edge, as the model rates it a 68% probability. This under reflects a controlled yet competitive affair, where Värnamo's edge in form and style could shine through without an outright goal fest.
GIF SundsvallForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #16xP/match #12Points #16
Key players
- Alper DemirolCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.23
- Marc Manchon I ArmansCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
- Eron GojaniLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.25
IFK VärnamoForm DWLWL
League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #14xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
- Johan RappCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
- Hugo AnderssonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: GIF Sundsvall – IFK Värnamo
Predicted score matrix
IFK Värnamo →
GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–19.2%
0–28.1%
0–34.6%
0–4+2.9%
1
1–06.3%
1–111.6%
1–29.6%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.4%
2
2–03.9%
2–16.6%
2–25.6%
2–33.2%
2–4+2.0%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.6%
3–22.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,18–1,70
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.22EV+0%
Over 2,555%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- IFK Värnamo to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Viktor Claesson Cedercrantz to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Yacqub Finey to score21%
- Logi Hrafn Robertsson to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.568% probability@1.50BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- Under 3.568% probability@1.50LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 3.568% probability@1.50NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · GIF Sundsvall | X | 2 · IFK Värnamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.96 | 3.74 | 1.84 |
| LeoVegas | 3.80 | 3.65 | 1.80 |
| Nordicbet | 3.96 | 3.74 | 1.84 |
Odds updated 15 Oct, 06:58
Odds movement
1+6 %
27 %22 %
3.60 → 3.80
X+1 %
28 %23 %
3.60 → 3.65
2-4 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.80
LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesGIF Sundsvall 0Draw 0IFK Värnamo 1
Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- IFK Värnamo have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Värnamo
GIF Sundsvall (19–53)
IFK Värnamo (34–47)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Värnamo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Värnamo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Värnamo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 29 |
| xPoints | 32.5 | 30.8 |
| xG per match | 0.94 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Värnamo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.5 | 0.55 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 307 | 382 |
| Passes against per match | 475 | 386 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.5 | 15.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 32 |
| Set pieces | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Värnamo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Other | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Värnamo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| The goalkeepers | Jonas Olsson (GIF Sundsvall) | Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 89 | 84 |
| Save % | 64% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 45% |
| Claims | 148 (93%) | 137 (89%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Ljungskile – Brage17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Sandviken – Östersund17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Falkenberg – Landskrona BoIS17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Öster – Oddevold17 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- Nordic United – Norrby18 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Varbergs BoIS – Helsingborgs IF19 October 2026 19:05 CEST
- IFK Norrköping – Örebro SK20 October 2026 19:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Värnamo according to our model?
The model gives IFK Värnamo a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: GIF Sundsvall 25%, draw 25%, IFK Värnamo 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Värnamo?
The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for GIF Sundsvall and 1.70 for IFK Värnamo, 2.87 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
GIF Sundsvall or draw (1X) 50%, IFK Värnamo or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.