Falkenberg vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction: Away win 40% (17 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan17 October 2026 15:00 CESTFalcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenberg9°28 km/h

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FalkenbergPossession control

Landskrona BoISPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Landskrona BoIS (40%)

1 · Falkenberg 35%X 25%40% Landskrona BoIS · 2

35%

25%

40%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Falkenberg vs Landskrona BoIS (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Falkenberg win 35%, draw 25%, Landskrona BoIS win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Falkenberg 1.45, Landskrona BoIS 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Falkenberg or draw 60%, Landskrona BoIS or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Falkenberg – Landskrona BoIS

Oscar Nilsson · 12 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

With both Falkenberg and Landskrona BoIS favoring a possession control style, the visitors' recent momentum is the standout figure here. Landskrona arrives on the back of three consecutive victories, having netted in 10 straight league games. This offensive consistency tilts the scale despite the hosts' edge in the head-to-head since 2024, a mere three-game sample that holds less weight against current form and expected goals.

Falkenberg leads in points, but their xPoints lag behind Landskrona's, suggesting they may have ridden their luck to some degree. The visitors also boast a superior xG per match and a slightly better defensive record in terms of xGA. Despite Falkenberg's edge in points, the model actually favors Landskrona as the slight favorite, and their form and performance metrics suggest they're undervalued in this matchup. The game models as tight, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring.

For bettors seeking value, the away win at odds of 2.75 with Betsafe or Nordicbet offers an appealing 11% edge, as the model rates Landskrona's chances at 40%. While the model's most likely scorelines hover around 1-1 or 1-2, the visitors present a clear opportunity for those hunting for value.

Falkenberg

Form LWWDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Linus BorgströmRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Tim StålhedenCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Melker NilssonCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

Landskrona BoIS

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #5xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Adam EgnellFxG 0.32 · xT 0.31
Gustaf BruzeliusRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Gustaf WestströmLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Falkenberg – Landskrona BoIS

Predicted score matrix

Landskrona BoIS →

Falkenberg →

0–05.9%

0–17.7%

0–25.7%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.8%

1–112.0%

1–28.3%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.9%

2–18.5%

2–26.0%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.9%

3–14.1%

3–22.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,45–1,43

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@1.98

Over 2,555%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2)62%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2)62%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Mathias Andreasen to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Hampus Källström to score33%
André Alvarez Perez to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Landskrona BoIS40% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Landskrona BoIS40% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
2 · Landskrona BoIS40% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Falkenberg	X	2 · Landskrona BoIS
Betsafe	2.55	3.40	EV+ 7% 2.65
LeoVegas	2.50	3.30	EV+ 5% 2.60
Nordicbet	2.55	3.40	EV+ 7% 2.65

Odds updated 15 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Landskrona BoIS win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 2.95 to 2.60 (−12%).

1+15 %

44 %34 %

2.18 → 2.50

X-3 %

32 %22 %

3.40 → 3.30

2-12 %

39 %29 %

2.95 → 2.60

LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Falkenberg 2Draw 1Landskrona BoIS 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Landskrona BoIS come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Landskrona BoIS have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Falkenberg

Landskrona BoIS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Falkenberg (48–34)

Landskrona BoIS (42–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Falkenberg

Landskrona BoIS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Falkenberg

Landskrona BoIS

The teams in numbers

Performance	Falkenberg	Landskrona BoIS
Points	48	43
xPoints	36.6	38.8
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.28

Playing style	Falkenberg	Landskrona BoIS
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.42	0.57
xT per match	1.3	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	27	30
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.57
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	17
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.77
Passes per match	405	439
Passes against per match	396	332
Switches of play per match	18.5	13.9
Long balls per match	33	31

Set pieces	Falkenberg	Landskrona BoIS
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.2
Corners per match	4.2	5.2
Corners against per match	5.2	4.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.54

Other	Falkenberg	Landskrona BoIS
Throw-in control	0.57	0.56

The goalkeepers	Anton Andersson (Falkenberg)	Amr Kaddoura (Landskrona BoIS)
Saves	40	46
Save %	65%	73%
xG prevented	45%	41%
Claims	126 (97%)	103 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

Falkenberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Landskrona BoIS

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Falkenberg vs Landskrona BoIS according to our model?

The model gives Landskrona BoIS a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkenberg 35%, draw 25%, Landskrona BoIS 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Falkenberg vs Landskrona BoIS?

The model expects 1.45 goals (xG) for Falkenberg and 1.43 for Landskrona BoIS, 2.88 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Falkenberg or draw (1X) 60%, Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.