01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Ljungskile to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Swedish SuperettanSkarsjövallen, Uddevalla8°27 km/h
Läs på svenska
LjungskilePossession controlvs
BragePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Ljungskile (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.35 (+5 %)
Ljungskile vs Brage · Swedish Superettan
1 · Ljungskile 46%X 26%28% Brage · 2
46%
26%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ljungskile vs Brage (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Ljungskile win 46%, draw 26%, Brage win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Ljungskile 1.76, Brage 1.14. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Ljungskile or draw 72%, Brage or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Ljungskile – Brage
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record between Ljungskile and Brage is a singular draw since 2024, providing little to sway our analysis significantly. What stands out more is the home side's slight edge in points and expected points this season. Ljungskile sits on 29 points compared to Brage's 26, suggesting modest superiority. This is further underpinned by their expected goals tally, which nudges slightly higher at 1.4 per match to Brage's 1.3. A matchup of two possession-based teams indicates a chess-like contest rather than a goal-fest.
Expected goals lean towards a 1.76 to 1.14 in favor of Ljungskile, which aligns with the model's prediction of a 46% win probability for the hosts. The most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 and 2-1, suggest a tight encounter. The over 2.5 goals threshold edges just over the line at 55%, and both teams to score is at 57%, hinting at a match where goals might be seen but not overly abundant.
Ljungskile's playing style, focusing on possession control, may counter Brage's similar approach, potentially leading to a stalemate in midfield battles. Though both teams are adept defensively, the model's expected goals against figures are level at 1.4, pointing to an even defensive capability. This dynamic promises a game where breaking down the opponent will require patience and precision.
When hunting for value, the under 2.5 goals presents a notable angle. Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer odds of 2.35 — a solid 5% edge over the model's assessment of 45%. For a slightly safer play, under 3.5 at 1.55 with Betsafe yields a 4% edge, given the model's 67% probability. Banking on defensive control and the likelihood of fewer goals could be the way to keep the betting slip in the black.
LjungskileForm DWLLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #6xP/match #7Points #11
Key players
- Filip AmbrozCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.32
- Mehmet UzelLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.23
- Gideon MensahCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
BrageForm LDDLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #9xP/match #9Points #14
Key players
- Alexander ZetterströmCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Gustav BerggrenCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.24
- Lasse Bruun MadsenCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Ljungskile – Brage
Predicted score matrix
Brage →
Ljungskile →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.0%
0–23.6%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.4%
1–111.4%
1–26.3%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.5%
2–19.7%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.0%
3–15.7%
3–23.2%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–13.7%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,76–1,14
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.35EV+5%
Over 2,555%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Ljungskile to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Emilio Reljanovic to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Emilio Reljanovic to score22%
- Alexander Zetterström to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- Under 3.567% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ljungskile | X | 2 · Brage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 2.16 | 3.59 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 2.16 | 3.59 | 3.10 |
Odds updated 15 Oct, 01:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Brage win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 3.40 to 2.95 (−13%).
1+12 %
51 %41 %
1.90 → 2.12
X-5 %
31 %21 %
3.70 → 3.50
2-13 %
34 %24 %
3.40 → 2.95
LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesLjungskile 0Draw 1Brage 0
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ljungskile
Brage
Ljungskile (34–37)
Brage (41–48)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ljungskile
Brage
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ljungskile
Brage
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ljungskile | Brage |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 29 | 26 |
| xPoints | 36.3 | 35.8 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Ljungskile | Brage |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 334 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 358 | 385 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.3 | 19.1 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Ljungskile | Brage |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| Other | Ljungskile | Brage |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile) | Viktor Frodig (Brage) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 91 | 71 |
| Save % | 72% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 46% |
| Claims | 161 (95%) | 155 (96%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sandviken – Östersund17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Falkenberg – Landskrona BoIS17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Öster – Oddevold17 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- Nordic United – Norrby18 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- GIF Sundsvall – IFK Värnamo18 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Varbergs BoIS – Helsingborgs IF19 October 2026 19:05 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ljungskile vs Brage according to our model?
The model gives Ljungskile a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ljungskile 46%, draw 26%, Brage 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Ljungskile vs Brage?
The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Ljungskile and 1.14 for Brage, 2.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Ljungskile or draw (1X) 72%, Brage or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.