Sandviken vs Östersund Prediction: Away win 38% (17 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan17 October 2026 15:00 CESTJernvallen, Sandviken6°4,0 mm26 km/h

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SandvikenPossession & high press

ÖstersundPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Östersund (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Sandviken @ 3.05 (+14 %)

1 · Sandviken 37%X 25%38% Östersund · 2

37%

25%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sandviken vs Östersund (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sandviken win 37%, draw 25%, Östersund win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Sandviken 1.48, Östersund 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Sandviken or draw 62%, Östersund or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sandviken – Östersund

Marcus Johansson · 12 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The clash between Sandviken and Östersund is poised to be a battle of high-pressing possession football, with both sides eager to control the tempo. Despite Östersund's unbeaten streak in their last 13 league outings, Sandviken has historically dominated the head-to-head, winning three of their five encounters since 2024. However, with a small sample size, this historical record is less influential compared to current form and expected goals.

The model suggests a tight affair, with probabilities nearly split down the middle: 37% for the hosts and 38% for the visitors. Expected goals sit at 1.48 for Sandviken and 1.40 for Östersund, indicating a relatively balanced matchup. The most likely scorelines reflect this parity, with 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 all in the mix. Yet, the damp conditions with 4.2 mm of rain might suppress goal-scoring opportunities slightly, although this is already factored into the model's over 2.5 goals probability of 55%.

Both teams' styles suggest an intense midfield battle, yet Sandviken's marginal edge in xG per match might tip the scales slightly in their favor offensively. Still, Östersund's stronger defensive record, with xGA at 1.0 compared to Sandviken's 1.3, could be crucial in staving off the hosts' attacks. Moreover, the points suggest an edge for Östersund, leading by ten in the standings, which might give them a psychological advantage.

As for a sharp betting angle, the model reveals a value play on Sandviken's win at odds of 3.11 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 3.0 with LeoVegas. Given the model's 37% win probability for the home side, this presents a 16% edge with the former two bookmakers, making it a potentially lucrative option for those willing to back the hosts despite the recent form of the visitors.

Sandviken

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #8xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Gustav ThörnCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Mohammed AbubakariLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
Adam KianiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16

Östersund

Form WDWDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #1xT #2xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
Simon MarklundRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
Sunday AnyanwuCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Sandviken – Östersund

Predicted score matrix

Östersund →

Sandviken →

0–06.0%

0–17.5%

0–25.5%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.0%

1–112.0%

1–28.1%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.1%

2–18.6%

2–26.0%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.0%

3–14.2%

3–23.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,48–1,40

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@1.78

Over 2,555%

@1.95EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Östersund or draw (X2)61%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Östersund or draw (X2)61%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Amar Begic to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Johan Arvidsson to score23%
Fabian Andersson to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sandviken37% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
1 · Sandviken37% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
1 · Sandviken37% probability@2.95LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sandviken	X	2 · Östersund
Betsafe	EV+ 14% 3.05	3.25	2.34
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 2.95	3.20	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 14% 3.05	3.25	2.34

Odds updated 14 Oct, 15:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Östersund win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 2.50 to 2.30 (−8%).

1+16 %

38 %28 %

2.55 → 2.95

X-3 %

34 %24 %

3.30 → 3.20

2-8 %

43 %33 %

2.50 → 2.30

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Sandviken 3Draw 1Östersund 1

Goals: 13–5 (⌀ 3,6)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Sandvikens IF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
Östersund are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sandviken

Östersund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sandviken (43–38)

Östersund (34–25)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sandviken

Östersund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sandviken

Östersund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sandviken	Östersund
Points	34	44
xPoints	36	36.4
xG per match	1.5	1.3
xGA per match	1.3	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.17

Playing style	Sandviken	Östersund
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.36
Field tilt	0.61	0.66
xT per match	1.5	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	37
Pressing intensity	0.57	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.31
Entries into the box per match	16	17
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.76
Passes per match	503	458
Passes against per match	338	339
Switches of play per match	14.3	17.7
Long balls per match	31	43

Set pieces	Sandviken	Östersund
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.08
Corners per match	4.7	6.2
Corners against per match	5.7	3.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.66

Other	Sandviken	Östersund
Throw-in control	0.61	0.59

The goalkeepers	Otto Lindell (Sandviken)	Melker Uppenberg (Östersund)
Saves	57	30
Save %	70%	64%
xG prevented	48%	31%
Claims	103 (97%)	77 (90%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sandviken

Fixtures, form & tips

Östersund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sandviken vs Östersund according to our model?

The model gives Östersund a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandviken 37%, draw 25%, Östersund 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sandviken vs Östersund?

The model expects 1.48 goals (xG) for Sandviken and 1.40 for Östersund, 2.88 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sandviken or draw (1X) 62%, Östersund or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.