Swedish SuperettanPåskbergsvallen, Varberg9°19 km/h

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    Varbergs BoISVarbergs BoISCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Helsingborgs IFHelsingborgs IFPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Varbergs BoIS (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Helsingborgs IF @ 3.96 (+11 %)

    Varbergs BoIS vs Helsingborgs IF · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Varbergs BoIS 46%X 26%28% Helsingborgs IF · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Varbergs BoIS vs Helsingborgs IF (Swedish Superettan, Monday, 19 October 2026): Varbergs BoIS win 46%, draw 26%, Helsingborgs IF win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Varbergs BoIS 1.74, Helsingborgs IF 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Varbergs BoIS or draw 72%, Helsingborgs IF or draw 54%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Varbergs BoIS – Helsingborgs IF

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Varbergs BoIS's knack for turning defensive situations into offensive opportunities could be the pivotal factor as they host Helsingborgs IF. Despite the small sample of head-to-head matchups since 2024, which slightly favors the hosts with three wins out of five, the real story lies in Varbergs' counter-attacking style. Their ability to generate 0.36 xG within eight seconds of winning the ball far outstrips Helsingborgs' 0.25, underscoring a tactical advantage that might tilt the game in their favor.

    The numbers suggest a tightly contested game, with Varbergs given a 46% probability of victory compared to Helsingborgs' 28%. However, the expected goals model provides a clearer edge to the hosts, projecting 1.74 xG for Varbergs against 1.40 for the visitors. This statistical edge is mirrored in their season-long performance, where the hosts lead on both points (45 vs. 30) and xPoints (34.5 vs. 27.7).

    With a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring, the expectation for an open match is evident. Varbergs's counter-attacking proficiency against Helsingborgs's possession control points to a dynamic clash. The most likely scorelines hover around a balanced outcome, with 1-1 at 11% and 2-1 to Varbergs at 9%. Yet, the underlying data leans towards a 2-1 home victory, particularly given the hosts' superior xG metrics.

    Despite the compelling numbers, there is a potential value play here for bettors. While not a guarantee, it's a line worth considering for those looking to capitalize on the host's strengths under the evening lights.

    Varbergs BoISVarbergs BoIS
    Form DLWWD
    League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #10xP/match #10Points #3
    Key players
    • Niklas DahlströmRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
    • Albin WinboCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.39
    • Noah JohanssonRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
    Helsingborgs IFHelsingborgs IF
    Form DLWLD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #6xP/match #16Points #10
    Key players
    • Ervin GigovicCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
    • Simon BengtssonLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
    • Lukas KjellnäsCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19

    Match prediction: Varbergs BoIS – Helsingborgs IF

    Predicted score matrix

    Helsingborgs IF →
    Varbergs BoIS →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–15.8%
    0–24.3%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–07.2%
    1–110.9%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–19.2%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.7%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–22.4%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,74–1,40
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @1.98
    Over 2,561%
    @1.75EV+6%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Varbergs BoIS to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.64

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Varbergs BoIS to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Shanyder Borgelin to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Shanyder Borgelin to score37%
    • Daouda Amadou to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Helsingborgs IF28% probability@3.96BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • 2 · Helsingborgs IF28% probability@3.96NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    • Over 3.538% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Varbergs BoISX2 · Helsingborgs IF
    Betsafe1.893.54
    EV+ 11%
    3.96
    LeoVegas1.883.45
    EV+ 5%
    3.75
    Nordicbet1.893.54
    EV+ 11%
    3.96

    Odds updated 14 Oct, 19:37

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    53 %48 %

    1.83 → 1.88

    X-7 %
    28 %23 %

    3.70 → 3.45

    2+1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.70 → 3.75

    LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 14/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Varbergs BoIS 3Draw 0Helsingborgs IF 2
    Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 2,4)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Varbergs BoIS
    Helsingborgs IF
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Varbergs BoIS (45–34)
    Helsingborgs IF (36–45)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Varbergs BoIS
    Gustav Broman: 262 passningar, xT 0.89BromanEdvin Tellgren: 260 passningar, xT 0.28TellgrenAlbin Winbo: 190 passningar, xT 1.59WinboEmil Hellman: 180 passningar, xT 0.32HellmanErion Sadiku: 147 passningar, xT 0.49SadikuIsak Valentin Vidjeskog: 146 passningar, xT 0.9VidjeskogNoah Johansson: 110 passningar, xT 0.39JohanssonNiklas Dahlström: 99 passningar, xT 0.06DahlströmDaniel Strindholm: 98 passningar, xT 0.18StrindholmLaorent Shabani: 82 passningar, xT 0.59ShabaniWilhelm Ärlig: 65 passningar, xT 0.93Ärlig
    Helsingborgs IF
    Jakob Voelkerling Persson: 196 passningar, xT 0.32PerssonObafemi Awodesu: 188 passningar, xT 0.09AwodesuDemba N'Diaye: 181 passningar, xT 0.34N'DiayeSimon Bengtsson: 180 passningar, xT 0.24BengtssonSamuel Asoma: 150 passningar, xT -0.03AsomaLukas Kjellnäs: 145 passningar, xT 0.72KjellnäsErik Lindell: 99 passningar, xT 0.29LindellDaouda Amadou: 70 passningar, xT 0.14AmadouJulian Larsson: 69 passningar, xT 0.52LarssonMarcus Gudmann: 65 passningar, xT 0.1GudmannEmil Rådahl: 49 passningar, xT 0.11Rådahl
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Varbergs BoIS
    Gustav Broman: 262 passningar, xT 0.89BromanEdvin Tellgren: 260 passningar, xT 0.28TellgrenAlbin Winbo: 190 passningar, xT 1.59WinboEmil Hellman: 180 passningar, xT 0.32HellmanErion Sadiku: 147 passningar, xT 0.49SadikuIsak Valentin Vidjeskog: 146 passningar, xT 0.9VidjeskogNoah Johansson: 110 passningar, xT 0.39JohanssonNiklas Dahlström: 99 passningar, xT 0.06DahlströmDaniel Strindholm: 98 passningar, xT 0.18StrindholmLaorent Shabani: 82 passningar, xT 0.59ShabaniWilhelm Ärlig: 65 passningar, xT 0.93Ärlig
    Helsingborgs IF
    Jakob Voelkerling Persson: 196 passningar, xT 0.32PerssonObafemi Awodesu: 188 passningar, xT 0.09AwodesuDemba N'Diaye: 181 passningar, xT 0.34N'DiayeSimon Bengtsson: 180 passningar, xT 0.24BengtssonSamuel Asoma: 150 passningar, xT -0.03AsomaLukas Kjellnäs: 145 passningar, xT 0.72KjellnäsErik Lindell: 99 passningar, xT 0.29LindellDaouda Amadou: 70 passningar, xT 0.14AmadouJulian Larsson: 69 passningar, xT 0.52LarssonMarcus Gudmann: 65 passningar, xT 0.1GudmannEmil Rådahl: 49 passningar, xT 0.11Rådahl

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVarbergs BoISHelsingborgs IF
    Points4530
    xPoints34.527.7
    xG per match1.31.2
    xGA per match1.41.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.24
    Playing styleVarbergs BoISHelsingborgs IF
    Build-up efficiency0.330.33
    Field tilt0.430.53
    xT per match1.51.5
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half3633
    Pressing intensity0.580.53
    Pressing efficiency0.260.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.29
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.740.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.73
    Passes per match305411
    Passes against per match377355
    Switches of play per match19.813.5
    Long balls per match3527
    Set piecesVarbergs BoISHelsingborgs IF
    xG from free kicks0.120.07
    Corners per match5.25.3
    Corners against per match4.94.9
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.55
    OtherVarbergs BoISHelsingborgs IF
    Throw-in control0.450.55
    The goalkeepersOscar Ekman (Varbergs BoIS)Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)
    Saves4178
    Save %65%68%
    xG prevented40%45%
    Claims84 (94%)148 (93%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Varbergs BoIS
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Helsingborgs IF
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Varbergs BoIS vs Helsingborgs IF according to our model?

    The model gives Varbergs BoIS a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varbergs BoIS 46%, draw 26%, Helsingborgs IF 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Varbergs BoIS vs Helsingborgs IF?

    The model expects 1.74 goals (xG) for Varbergs BoIS and 1.40 for Helsingborgs IF, 3.14 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Varbergs BoIS or draw (1X) 72%, Helsingborgs IF or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.