Swiss Super LeagueSt. Jakob-Park, Basel18°14 km/h

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    BaselBaselBalanced & physical
    vs
    St. GallenSt. GallenPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · St. Gallen (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.82 (+20 %)

    Basel vs St. Gallen · Swiss Super League

    1 · Basel 30%X 27%43% St. Gallen · 2

    Analysis: Basel – St. Gallen

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    St. Gallen's 43% probability to win indicates they dominate this matchup, with a clear edge over Basel. The visitors have been more proficient in creating chances, boasting an xG of 2.1 per match compared to the hosts' 1.1. St. Gallen's ability to control possession should pose a significant challenge for Basel's balanced and physical approach.

    Basel's recent head-to-head record against St. Gallen shows only 1 win in 7 encounters, further tilting the expectation towards the visitors. St. Gallen's xPoints of 11.0 surpass Basel's 8.1, reinforcing the visitors' advantage. Despite Basel's slightly better defensive numbers, the attacking prowess of St. Gallen, particularly their xG of 0.46 within 8 seconds of regaining possession, suggests they can exploit any defensive lapses.

    While the model suggests a slight lean towards a scoreline of 1-1, the value lies in the under 2.5 goals market, with significant odds of 2.82 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite a 57% prediction for over 2.5 goals, the model sees a 43% chance for under, providing a 20% edge for the disciplined bettor.

    BaselBasel
    Form WDLLW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #10xP/match #10Points #4
    Key players
    • Keigo TsunemotoRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
    • Žan CelarFxG 0.35 · xT -0.01
    • Flavius David DaniliucCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
    St. GallenSt. Gallen
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #5
    Key players
    • Aliou BaldeLWxG 0.51 · xT 0.24
    • Lukas DaschnerCAMxG 0.37 · xT 0.23
    • Lukas GortlerCMxG 0.32 · xT 0.18

    Match prediction: Basel – St. Gallen

    Predicted score matrix

    St. Gallen →
    Basel →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.3%
    0–17.6%
    0–26.3%
    0–33.3%
    0–4+1.9%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–111.5%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.7%
    1–4+2.7%
    2
    2–05.0%
    2–17.9%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+1.9%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,40–1,59
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.82EV+20%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.38

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance St. Gallen or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.87

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance St. Gallen or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Aliou Badara Balde to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Žan Celar to score23%
    • Lukas Maria Görtler to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.543% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 2.543% probability@2.82BetssonEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 2.543% probability@2.82NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BaselX2 · St. Gallen
    Betfair Exchange1.251.261.25
    Betsafe2.45
    EV+ 4%
    3.85
    EV+ 2%
    2.35
    Betsson2.45
    EV+ 4%
    3.85
    EV+ 2%
    2.35
    Nordicbet2.45
    EV+ 4%
    3.85
    EV+ 2%
    2.35
    Pinnacle2.55
    EV+ 7%
    3.98
    EV+ 6%
    2.44

    Odds updated 17 Sept, 06:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Basel 1Draw 3St. Gallen 3
    Goals: 7–12 (⌀ 2,7)

    Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • St. Gallen dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Basel
    St. Gallen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Basel (16–14)
    St. Gallen (12–14)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Basel
    Flavius David Daniliuc: 300 passningar, xT 0.39DaniliucKeigo Tsunemoto: 263 passningar, xT 0.82TsunemotoAkpe Victory Maduabuchukwu: 256 passningar, xT 0.34MaduabuchukwuBećir Omeragić: 163 passningar, xT 0OmeragićAbemly Silu Metinho: 136 passningar, xT -0.08MetinhoMirko Salvi: 122 passningar, xT 0.08SalviXherdan Shaqiri: 119 passningar, xT 0.35ShaqiriMoussa Cissé: 99 passningar, xT 0.45CisséAsane Sow: 95 passningar, xT 0.23SowKazeem Aderemi Olaigbe: 86 passningar, xT 0.4OlaigbeJonas Harder: 53 passningar, xT 0.19Harder
    St. Gallen
    Chima Okoroji: 180 passningar, xT 0.78OkorojiJozo Stanic: 161 passningar, xT 0.3StanicLukas Daschner: 128 passningar, xT 0.8DaschnerLawrence Ati Zigi: 122 passningar, xT 0.21ZigiMihailo Stevanovic: 116 passningar, xT 0.38StevanovicColin Noah Kleine-Bekel: 116 passningar, xT 0.67Kleine-BekelHugo Vandermersch: 112 passningar, xT 0.35VandermerschLukas Gortler: 109 passningar, xT 0.44GortlerJoel Ruiz: 90 passningar, xT 0.09RuizChristian Witzig: 82 passningar, xT 0.36WitzigEnoch Owusu: 71 passningar, xT 0.19Owusu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Basel
    Flavius David Daniliuc: 300 passningar, xT 0.39DaniliucKeigo Tsunemoto: 263 passningar, xT 0.82TsunemotoAkpe Victory Maduabuchukwu: 256 passningar, xT 0.34MaduabuchukwuBećir Omeragić: 163 passningar, xT 0OmeragićAbemly Silu Metinho: 136 passningar, xT -0.08MetinhoMirko Salvi: 122 passningar, xT 0.08SalviXherdan Shaqiri: 119 passningar, xT 0.35ShaqiriMoussa Cissé: 99 passningar, xT 0.45CisséAsane Sow: 95 passningar, xT 0.23SowKazeem Aderemi Olaigbe: 86 passningar, xT 0.4OlaigbeJonas Harder: 53 passningar, xT 0.19Harder
    St. Gallen
    Chima Okoroji: 180 passningar, xT 0.78OkorojiJozo Stanic: 161 passningar, xT 0.3StanicLukas Daschner: 128 passningar, xT 0.8DaschnerLawrence Ati Zigi: 122 passningar, xT 0.21ZigiMihailo Stevanovic: 116 passningar, xT 0.38StevanovicColin Noah Kleine-Bekel: 116 passningar, xT 0.67Kleine-BekelHugo Vandermersch: 112 passningar, xT 0.35VandermerschLukas Gortler: 109 passningar, xT 0.44GortlerJoel Ruiz: 90 passningar, xT 0.09RuizChristian Witzig: 82 passningar, xT 0.36WitzigEnoch Owusu: 71 passningar, xT 0.19Owusu

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBaselSt. Gallen
    Points1010
    xPoints8.111
    xG per match1.12.1
    xGA per match1.31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.46
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.32
    Playing styleBaselSt. Gallen
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.460.62
    xT per match0.911.3
    xTA per match1.20.65
    Won balls, offensive half2135
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.36
    Entries into the box per match1221
    Entries into the box against1814
    Pass completion %0.780.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.62
    Passes per match362291
    Passes against per match381267
    Switches of play per match31.319.2
    Long balls per match3234
    Set piecesBaselSt. Gallen
    xG from free kicks0.030.1
    Corners per match3.87.7
    Corners against per match6.74
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.630.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.430.48
    OtherBaselSt. Gallen
    Throw-in control0.660.7
    The goalkeepersMirko Salvi (Basel)Lawrence Ati Zigi (St. Gallen)
    Saves1917
    Save %59%59%
    xG prevented36%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Basel
    Fixtures, form & tips
    St. Gallen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Basel vs St. Gallen according to our model?

    The model gives St. Gallen a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Basel 30%, draw 27%, St. Gallen 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.