Lausanne Sport vs Lugano: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League20 September 2026 16:30 CESTStade de la Tuilière, Lausanne20°10 km/h

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Lausanne SportPossession control

LuganoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Lugano (61%)

1 · Lausanne Sport 16%X 24%61% Lugano · 2

16%

24%

61%

Analysis: Lausanne Sport – Lugano

Marcus Johansson · 15 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

In their head-to-head meetings since 2023, Lausanne Sport and Lugano have been evenly matched, with each side winning twice and drawing three times out of seven encounters. However, this small sample size pales next to the current forms and expected goals, which favour the visitors. Lugano's unbeaten streak in the last nine league matches and their ability to score in 18 consecutive league games suggest they have the upper hand heading into this clash.

Lausanne are a possession-oriented side, much like their opponents, but they've struggled to convert control into points. Their xG of 0.76 per match starkly contrasts with Lugano’s 1.7, further underlined by the points gap: 6 for the hosts against 19 for the visitors. The model backs Lugano with a 61% probability, reflecting their strength and consistency.

Despite Lausanne's marginal edge in expected goals against (xGA), Lugano's attacking prowess suggests that they should find the net. The most likely scorelines lean towards a narrow victory for the visitors, with 0-1 (12%) and 0-2 (11%) standing out. The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 51%, with both teams to score equally poised at 50%. Yet, the likelihood of a low-scoring affair cannot be dismissed given the profile of both teams.

For those eyeing value, the under 2.5 goals market presents an opportunity. With odds of 2.2 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and the model rating it at 49%, there’s a 7% edge to consider. This suggests that despite the balanced goal probabilities, the cautious approach of both possession-based teams might see fewer than three goals on the night.

Lausanne Sport

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #2xT #12xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Florent MolletCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.00

Lugano

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #1xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

Uran BislimiCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.29
Yanis CimignaniLWBxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
Anto GrgicCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Lausanne Sport – Lugano

Predicted score matrix

Lugano →

Lausanne Sport →

0–06.8%

0–111.7%

0–211.1%

0–36.9%

0–4+4.8%

1–05.4%

1–110.9%

1–29.8%

1–36.1%

1–4+4.3%

2–02.5%

2–14.7%

2–24.3%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.9%

3–00.7%

3–11.4%

3–21.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.0-211%
3.1-111%
4.1-210%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,88–1,85

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.21EV+5%

Over 2,551%

@1.67

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lugano to win61%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lugano to win61%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Renato Steffen to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Renato Steffen to score27%
Jamie John Roche to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lugano61% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
2 · Lugano61% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Lugano61% probability@1.85BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lausanne Sport	X	2 · Lugano
Betfair Exchange	1.12	1.13	1.12
Betsafe	3.65	3.60	EV+ 12% 1.85
Betsson	3.65	3.60	EV+ 12% 1.85
Nordicbet	3.65	3.60	EV+ 12% 1.85
Pinnacle	3.51	3.82	EV+ 19% 1.96

Odds updated 17 Sept, 08:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Lausanne Sport 2Draw 3Lugano 2

Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
FC Lugano have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lausanne Sport

Lugano

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lausanne Sport (7–11)

Lugano (19–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lausanne Sport

Lugano

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lausanne Sport

Lugano

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lausanne Sport	Lugano
Points	6	19
xPoints	7.3	9.6
xG per match	0.76	1.7
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.29

Playing style	Lausanne Sport	Lugano
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.49	0.58
xT per match	0.72	1.7
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	20	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	7	17
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.79
Passes per match	330	463
Passes against per match	337	348
Switches of play per match	37.3	33.7
Long balls per match	42	39

Set pieces	Lausanne Sport	Lugano
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.08
Corners per match	3.5	6.2
Corners against per match	5.2	3.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.58

Other	Lausanne Sport	Lugano
Throw-in control	0.72	0.74

The goalkeepers	Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport)	David Von Ballmoos (Lugano)
Saves	32	16
Save %	74%	73%
xG prevented	48%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lausanne Sport

Fixtures, form & tips

Lugano

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lausanne Sport vs Lugano according to our model?

The model gives Lugano a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lausanne Sport 16%, draw 24%, Lugano 61%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.