Vaduz vs Thun: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League20 September 2026 14:00 CESTRheinpark Stadion, Vaduz17°8 km/h

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VaduzCounter-attacks & crosses

ThunCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Vaduz (48%)

1 · Vaduz 48%X 26%26% Thun · 2

48%

26%

Analysis: Vaduz – Thun

Erik Lindberg · 15 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Vaduz enters this matchup with a subtle but clear edge, underscored by a model probability of 48% in their favor. The hosts have managed to score in eight consecutive league matches, reflecting a consistency that Thun has struggled to match. Despite Thun's slight lead in the actual points tally — 7 to Vaduz's 6 — the expected data paints a different picture. Vaduz's expected points (xPoints) of 10.8 suggest they've been unfortunate, compared to Thun's 6.6. This clash of form versus potential sets the stage for a tightly contested affair.

The expected goals (xG) metric further backs the home side, pegging Vaduz at 1.8 xG per match against Thun’s 1.5. Defensively, the visitors appear more vulnerable, with an alarming 2.4 expected goals against (xGA) per match. In contrast, Vaduz's xGA is a more respectable 1.8, indicating that while they are not impervious, they are less porous than their opponents. This defensive fragility of Thun could be a critical factor, especially given the hosts' current scoring streak.

While head-to-head records can sometimes skew perceptions in football, our current sample size is too small to outweigh the more telling, data-driven insights. Both sides align stylistically, relying on counterattacks and crosses, which may balance the tactical scales. However, the home pitch advantage and a more favorable xG forecast lean towards Vaduz.

The betting market offers value on this home tilt, with odds of 2.32 available through Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model's 48% rating, there's a tangible 10% edge here for the calculated bettor. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 suggest a close contest, but the edge tips towards a 2-1 home victory, aligning with both teams' goal probabilities over 2.5 at 65%.

For those who prioritize data over drama, Vaduz at 2.32 presents a shrewd play.

Vaduz

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #11xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Lutfi DalipiFxG 0.18 · xT 0.20
Nicolas HaslerRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Marcel MonsbergerFxG 0.48 · xT -0.04

Thun

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #9xP/match #12Points #9

Key players

Brighton LabeauFxG 0.33 · xT 0.16
Dorian DerbaciFxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
Lucien DahlerRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Vaduz – Thun

Predicted score matrix

Thun →

Vaduz →

0–03.7%

0–14.6%

0–23.4%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.8%

1–06.5%

1–19.8%

1–26.6%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.7%

2–19.3%

2–26.5%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.4%

3–04.4%

3–16.1%

3–24.3%

3–32.0%

3–4+0.9%

4+–03.4%

4+–14.7%

4+–23.3%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.2-07%
4.1-27%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,97–1,40

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.95EV+2%

Over 2,565%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vaduz to win48%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vaduz to win48%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score26%
Luca Maurice Mack to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Vaduz48% probability@2.38PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
1 · Vaduz48% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
1 · Vaduz48% probability@2.35BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vaduz	X	2 · Thun
Betfair Exchange	1.31	1.89	1.84
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 2.35	EV+ 0% 3.85	2.45
Betsson	EV+ 12% 2.35	EV+ 0% 3.85	2.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 2.35	EV+ 0% 3.85	2.45
Pinnacle	EV+ 13% 2.38	EV+ 8% 4.16	2.54

Odds updated 17 Sept, 06:36

Statistics

Key facts

Vaduz have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vaduz

Thun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vaduz (17–19)

Thun (11–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vaduz

Thun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vaduz

Thun

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vaduz	Thun
Points	6	7
xPoints	10.8	6.6
xG per match	1.8	1.5
xGA per match	1.8	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.41

Playing style	Vaduz	Thun
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.47	0.47
xT per match	0.85	1
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	27	26
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.32
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	17	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.65
Passes per match	418	288
Passes against per match	304	304
Switches of play per match	24.4	26.1
Long balls per match	36	39

Set pieces	Vaduz	Thun
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.13
Corners per match	4.2	5.1
Corners against per match	6.8	6
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.52

Other	Vaduz	Thun
Throw-in control	0.72	0.7

The goalkeepers	Leon Schaffran (Vaduz)	Niklas Steffen (Thun)
Saves	23	29
Save %	62%	62%
xG prevented	47%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vaduz

Fixtures, form & tips

Thun

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vaduz vs Thun according to our model?

The model gives Vaduz a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vaduz 48%, draw 26%, Thun 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.