Servette vs Vaduz: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League24 October 2026 18:00 CESTStade de Genève, Genève9°6,1 mm15 km/h

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ServetteLow block & direct

2–1

VaduzCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Servette (45%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.68 (+5 %)

1 · Servette 45%X 26%29% Vaduz · 2

45%

26%

29%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Servette vs Vaduz (Swiss Super League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Servette win 45%, draw 26%, Vaduz win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Servette 1.74, Vaduz 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Servette or draw 71%, Vaduz or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Servette – Vaduz

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Vaduz have managed to score in their last 10 league matches, a streak that reflects their attacking potential despite being seen as underdogs against Servette. The home side, with 13 points compared to Vaduz's 9, has a slight edge, but the narrow gap suggests a closer contest than the odds might imply.

Servette may show a slight edge in terms of points and xPoints, but Vaduz's superior xG per match (1.9) hints at their ability to create more quality chances. The home side, however, balances this with a better defensive record, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.5) compared to Vaduz (1.7). The playing styles add an interesting tactical dimension: Servette's direct approach will clash with Vaduz's counter-attacking strategy, potentially setting the stage for a match where both sides find the net.

The model gives Servette a 45% chance of victory, yet the 29% win probability for Vaduz at odds of 3.65 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a clear value opportunity. This 7% edge is noteworthy given the potential for Vaduz to exploit Servette's defensive vulnerabilities. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 further underline the tight contest expected.

Weather conditions, specifically the forecasted rain, could dampen the attacking flair, yet the over 2.5 goals probability remains at 60%, suggesting goals remain on the cards. However, with an eye on value, the under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.7 with LeoVegas offers a 6% edge, appealing for those cautious of weather impact. In a match where the odds slightly skew towards Servette, the smart money may find its place among the visitors or the goal market.

Servette

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #10xP/match #4Points #6

Key players

Samuel MrazFxG 0.86 · xT -0.01
Florian AyéFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Kingstone MutandwaFxG 0.69 · xT 0.03

Vaduz

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #8xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Denis SimaniCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Liridon BerishaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Nicolas HaslerRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Servette 45% · Draw 26% · Vaduz 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ServetteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,51fair 6,27-28 %

Miss

Matchresultat - VaduzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,76fair 10,13-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Servette – Vaduz

Predicted score matrix

Vaduz →

Servette →

0–04.8%

0–15.8%

0–24.2%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.9%

1–07.4%

1–110.9%

1–27.3%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–19.2%

2–26.3%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.9%

3–15.4%

3–23.7%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.5%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-07%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,74–1,37

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.62EV+5%

Over 2,560%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Servette or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Servette or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Miroslav Stevanović to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score20%
Luca Maurice Mack to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.562% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.562% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Servette	X	2 · Vaduz
Betsafe	2.02	3.65	3.10
LeoVegas	2.05	3.75	3.05
Nordicbet	2.02	3.65	3.10
Pinnacle	2.09	EV+ 3% 3.93	3.27

Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Vaduz win since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 3.71 to 3.27 (−12%).

1+14 %

54 %44 %

1.84 → 2.09

X-4 %

29 %19 %

4.10 → 3.93

2-12 %

32 %22 %

3.71 → 3.27

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Vaduz have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Servette

Vaduz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Servette (14–13)

Vaduz (21–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Servette

Vaduz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Servette

Vaduz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Servette	Vaduz
Points	13	9
xPoints	15.5	14.2
xG per match	1.5	1.9
xGA per match	1.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.31

Playing style	Servette	Vaduz
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.42	0.5
xT per match	0.91	1.1
xTA per match	1.5	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.32
Entries into the box per match	15	14
Entries into the box against	17	16
Pass completion %	0.73	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	321	416
Passes against per match	353	298
Switches of play per match	21.8	24.5
Long balls per match	33	34

Set pieces	Servette	Vaduz
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.09
Corners per match	6	3.7
Corners against per match	6.3	6.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.56

Other	Servette	Vaduz
Throw-in control	0.73	0.72

The goalkeepers	Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette)	Leon Schaffran (Vaduz)
Saves	21	27
Save %	66%	63%
xG prevented	44%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Servette

Fixtures, form & tips

Vaduz

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Servette vs Vaduz according to our model?

The model gives Servette a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Servette 45%, draw 26%, Vaduz 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Servette vs Vaduz?

The model expects 1.74 goals (xG) for Servette and 1.37 for Vaduz, 3.11 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Servette or draw (1X) 71%, Vaduz or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.