Sion vs Lausanne Sport Prediction: Home win 69% (25 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League25 October 2026 16:30 CETStade de Tourbillon, Sion8°6,5 mm8 km/h

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SionCounter-attacks & crosses

Lausanne SportPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sion (69%)

1 · Sion 69%X 18%13% Lausanne Sport · 2

69%

18%

13%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sion vs Lausanne Sport (Swiss Super League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sion win 69%, draw 18%, Lausanne Sport win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Sion 2.52, Lausanne Sport 0.98. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Sion or draw 87%, Lausanne Sport or draw 31%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sion – Lausanne Sport

Sofia Andersson · 23 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A clash defined by contrasting fortunes awaits, as the struggling Lausanne Sport travel to face Sion, who are notably favored by the numbers. Sion’s counter-attacking prowess matched against Lausanne’s possession game creates a tactical dichotomy. The hosts are heavily tipped with a 69% win probability, a stark contrast to the visitors’ mere 13%, underscoring the anticipated dominance of Sion.

Digging into the numbers, Sion’s expected goals (xG) of 2.52 eclipse Lausanne’s 0.98, laying bare the attacking gulf between the teams. The home side's xG per match at 2.0 is significantly higher than Lausanne's 0.79, highlighting the hosts' consistent threat in front of goal. Despite Lausanne's slight defensive edge with a xGA of 1.5 compared to Sion's 1.7, it appears insufficient against such a potent attack. The expectation of over 2.5 goals at 68% aligns with the attacking profiles, yet the forecasted rain could slightly temper scoring opportunities.

Sion’s recent form is bolstered by points and xPoints leads, sitting on 19 points compared to Lausanne’s 6. The visitors arrive at Stade de Tourbillon burdened by a four-game losing streak, struggling to find cohesion and results in their current campaign. The head-to-head record is more balanced with a small sample, but that does not outweigh season-long trends.

From a betting perspective, multiple bookmakers including Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet offer home win odds of 1.47, which carries a 2% edge based on the model’s assessment. This represents a calculated value opportunity for those backing Sion to capitalize on Lausanne’s vulnerabilities. With the tactical mismatch and current form, a 2-0 or 2-1 victory for Sion seems the most plausible outcome.

Sion

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #1xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Ali KabacalmanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Ilyas ChouarefRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.35
Numa LavanchyRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.30

Lausanne Sport

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #12xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Levy NeneFxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Sion – Lausanne Sport

Predicted score matrix

Lausanne Sport →

Sion →

0–03.2%

0–12.8%

0–21.5%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–07.4%

1–17.7%

1–23.7%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.4%

2–09.6%

2–19.4%

2–24.6%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–08.0%

3–17.9%

3–23.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–09.2%

4+–19.0%

4+–24.5%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-19%
3.3-08%
4.3-18%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,52–0,98

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

@2.70

Over 2,568%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sion to win69%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sion to win69%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Winsley Boteli to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Winsley Boteli to score35%
Jamie John Roche to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sion69% probability@1.53PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Over 3.546% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
1 · Sion69% probability@1.48LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sion	X	2 · Lausanne Sport
Bet365	1.33	4.80	7.00
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 1.47	4.40	5.30
LeoVegas	EV+ 3% 1.48	4.60	5.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 1.47	4.40	5.30
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 1.53	4.78	5.65

Odds updated 25 Oct, 09:17

Odds movement

1+2 %

65 %60 %

1.50 → 1.53

X+1 %

23 %18 %

4.72 → 4.78

2+3 %

20 %15 %

5.47 → 5.65

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Sion 2Draw 2Lausanne Sport 2

Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Lausanne Sport have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sion

Lausanne Sport

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sion (23–17)

Lausanne Sport (7–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sion

Lausanne Sport

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sion

Lausanne Sport

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sion	Lausanne Sport
Points	19	6
xPoints	14.4	9.6
xG per match	2	0.79
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.29

Playing style	Sion	Lausanne Sport
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.51	0.47
xT per match	1.6	0.79
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.24
Entries into the box per match	17	9
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.68
Passes per match	404	328
Passes against per match	327	355
Switches of play per match	30.9	36.6
Long balls per match	34	42

Set pieces	Sion	Lausanne Sport
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.07
Corners per match	5.6	4.6
Corners against per match	4.5	5.1
xG per corner	0.06	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.4

Other	Sion	Lausanne Sport
Throw-in control	0.72	0.73

The goalkeepers	Anthony Racioppi (Sion)	Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport)
Saves	26	39
Save %	61%	72%
xG prevented	34%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sion

Fixtures, form & tips

Lausanne Sport

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sion vs Lausanne Sport according to our model?

The model gives Sion a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sion 69%, draw 18%, Lausanne Sport 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sion vs Lausanne Sport?

The model expects 2.52 goals (xG) for Sion and 0.98 for Lausanne Sport, 3.50 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sion or draw (1X) 87%, Lausanne Sport or draw (X2) 31% and no draw (12) 82%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.