Süper Lig18°15 km/h

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    ÇorumÇorumLow block & direct
    1–2
    AlanyasporAlanyasporLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Çorum (53%)

    Çorum vs Alanyaspor · Süper Lig

    1 · Çorum 53%X 24%23% Alanyaspor · 2

    Analysis: Çorum – Alanyaspor

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Çorum enters the fixture against Alanyaspor with a statistical edge, holding a 53% win probability according to the model. Despite trailing by a single point in the standings, the hosts display superior expected goals per match at 1.1 compared to Alanyaspor's 0.95. The tension lies in Çorum's ability to capitalize on superior attacking metrics while maintaining a shaky defence.

    Historically, Çorum struggles with a low defensive profile, conceding 1.6 xGA per match. This vulnerability contrasts with Alanyaspor's slightly sturdier backline, which allows 1.3 xGA. Nonetheless, Alanyaspor's offensive output is lackluster, indicated by their lower xG. These dynamics suggest a tight contest, where Çorum's home advantage could be decisive.

    The model's scoreline predictions further reinforce Çorum's potential, with a 1-1 draw at a 13% chance and a 1-0 home win at 12%. Although these margins are narrow, they emphasize the importance of Çorum’s attacking edge. The probability for both teams to score stands at 48%, underscoring an expectation of minimal goal-scoring opportunities.

    Where the betting angle sharpens is in the value for Çorum to win. The odds at 2.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 14% value edge, well aligned with the model's 53% assessment. In a match where both teams deploy direct styles and defensive weaknesses are on display, the numbers lean towards a low-scoring victory for the hosts.

    In this tight analysis, backing Çorum at those odds could yield a favorable return. Given the under 2.5 goals probability of 55%, a prudent expectation would be a 1-0 win for the home side, aligning with the model's strongest predictions and the apparent value in the market.

    ÇorumÇorum
    Form DLLWW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #7xP/match #13Points #11
    Key players
    • Alexandros KyziridisLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.29
    • Cengiz UnderRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.20
    • Jesús Andrés Ramírez DíazFxG 0.36 · xT -0.03
    AlanyasporAlanyaspor
    Form DWLWD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #9xT #14xP/match #10Points #8
    Key players
    • Florent HadergjonajRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.34
    • Gaius MakoutaCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
    • Baran GezekFxG 0.00 · xT -0.02
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Çorum 53% · Draw 24% · Alanyaspor 23%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Çorum FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,26fair 9,01-19 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - AlanyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,38fair 22,77-46 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Çorum – Alanyaspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Alanyaspor →
    Çorum →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.8%
    0–17.6%
    0–23.8%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.5%
    1–112.5%
    1–25.8%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.8%
    2–19.3%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–14.7%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.7%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,53–0,95
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.85EV+2%
    Over 2,545%
    @2.03

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Çorum to win53%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Çorum to win53%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Mohammed Baba Diomande to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Mohammed Baba Diomande to score19%
    • Baran Ali Gezek to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Çorum53% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • 1 · Çorum53% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Çorum53% probability@2.05BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ÇorumX2 · Alanyaspor
    Betsafe
    EV+ 9%
    2.05    		3.253.55
    Betsson
    EV+ 9%
    2.05    		3.253.55
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 9%
    2.05    		3.253.55
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 13%
    2.13    		3.413.62

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 13 September — the odds have shortened from 2.29 to 2.03 (−11%).

    10 %
    50 %40 %

    2.14 → 2.13

    X+7 %
    34 %24 %

    3.19 → 3.41

    2-1 %
    31 %21 %

    3.67 → 3.62

    Over 2,5-11 %
    50 %40 %

    2.29 → 2.03

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Çorum
    Alanyaspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Çorum (12–10)
    Alanyaspor (6–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Çorum
    Hrvoje Smolčić: 300 passningar, xT 0.39SmolčićYlber Ramadani: 201 passningar, xT 0.03RamadaniGokhan Sazdagi: 193 passningar, xT 1.06SazdagiSebastian Andrei Borza: 187 passningar, xT 0.39BorzaAlexandre Manuel Penetra Correia: 168 passningar, xT 0.26CorreiaMarcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro: 165 passningar, xT 0.11MonteiroAlfredo Kulembe Gomes Ribeiro: 149 passningar, xT 0.4RibeiroSerdar Saatci: 114 passningar, xT 0.06SaatciMohammed Baba Diomande: 112 passningar, xT 0.11DiomandeBerat Ozdemir: 111 passningar, xT 0.04OzdemirJesús Andrés Ramírez Díaz: 74 passningar, xT -0.23Díaz
    Alanyaspor
    Nuno Lima: 186 passningar, xT 0.23LimaFlorent Hadergjonaj: 167 passningar, xT 1.57HadergjonajGaius Makouta: 150 passningar, xT 0.25MakoutaFidan Aliti: 126 passningar, xT 0.1AlitiÜmit Akdağ: 94 passningar, xT 0.23AkdağPaulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti: 90 passningar, xT 0.19VidottiRuan Pereira Duarte: 87 passningar, xT 0.13DuarteBaran Gezek: 74 passningar, xT -0.08GezekMeschack Elia Lina: 47 passningar, xT -0.07LinaUi Jo Hwang: 39 passningar, xT -0.07HwangFatih Aksoy: 38 passningar, xT 0.05Aksoy
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Çorum
    Hrvoje Smolčić: 300 passningar, xT 0.39SmolčićYlber Ramadani: 201 passningar, xT 0.03RamadaniGokhan Sazdagi: 193 passningar, xT 1.06SazdagiSebastian Andrei Borza: 187 passningar, xT 0.39BorzaAlexandre Manuel Penetra Correia: 168 passningar, xT 0.26CorreiaMarcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro: 165 passningar, xT 0.11MonteiroAlfredo Kulembe Gomes Ribeiro: 149 passningar, xT 0.4RibeiroSerdar Saatci: 114 passningar, xT 0.06SaatciMohammed Baba Diomande: 112 passningar, xT 0.11DiomandeBerat Ozdemir: 111 passningar, xT 0.04OzdemirJesús Andrés Ramírez Díaz: 74 passningar, xT -0.23Díaz
    Alanyaspor
    Nuno Lima: 186 passningar, xT 0.23LimaFlorent Hadergjonaj: 167 passningar, xT 1.57HadergjonajGaius Makouta: 150 passningar, xT 0.25MakoutaFidan Aliti: 126 passningar, xT 0.1AlitiÜmit Akdağ: 94 passningar, xT 0.23AkdağPaulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti: 90 passningar, xT 0.19VidottiRuan Pereira Duarte: 87 passningar, xT 0.13DuarteBaran Gezek: 74 passningar, xT -0.08GezekMeschack Elia Lina: 47 passningar, xT -0.07LinaUi Jo Hwang: 39 passningar, xT -0.07HwangFatih Aksoy: 38 passningar, xT 0.05Aksoy

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceÇorumAlanyaspor
    Points78
    xPoints5.96.3
    xG per match1.10.95
    xGA per match1.61.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.16
    Playing styleÇorumAlanyaspor
    Build-up efficiency0.340.3
    Field tilt0.50.45
    xT per match1.10.78
    xTA per match1.40.95
    Won balls, offensive half2019
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.15
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1512
    Pass completion %0.820.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.69
    Passes per match421267
    Passes against per match379408
    Switches of play per match42.419.6
    Long balls per match4734
    Set piecesÇorumAlanyaspor
    xG from free kicks00.02
    Corners per match4.85.9
    Corners against per match5.43.9
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.050.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.42
    OtherÇorumAlanyaspor
    Throw-in control0.590.69
    The goalkeepersMarcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro (Çorum)Paulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti (Alanyaspor)
    Saves1919
    Save %66%79%
    xG prevented42%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Çorum
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Alanyaspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Çorum vs Alanyaspor according to our model?

    The model gives Çorum a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Çorum 53%, draw 24%, Alanyaspor 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.