Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig19 September 2026

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KocaelisporPossession control

2–0

GaziantepPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Kocaelispor (44%)

1 · Kocaelispor 44%X 32%24% Gaziantep · 2

44%

32%

24%

Analysis: Kocaelispor – Gaziantep

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Gaziantep is balanced, with each team securing a win in their two encounters since 2023. This is a small sample size and thus less indicative of current form and expectations. Kocaelispor's slight advantage in the model's probabilities, with a 44% chance of victory, suggests a lean towards the hosts. However, while Kocaelispor holds a narrow edge in current points (9 vs. 8), Gaziantep's clearly higher xPoints (6.4 vs. 5.3) indicate a tighter and more competitive contest than the outright odds might imply.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Kocaelispor's modest scoring average of 0.83 xG per match is overshadowed by their defensive vulnerabilities, allowing 1.8 xGA per game. Gaziantep, meanwhile, boasts a higher offensive output at 1.1 xG and a sturdier defense, conceding 1.5 xGA per match. Despite this defensive edge, the expected goals (1.35 for Kocaelispor vs. 1.09 for Gaziantep) underscore a match where the hosts could capitalize on their home advantage.

Given the possession-control styles of both teams, the game is unlikely to turn into an open shootout. With the most probable scorelines being 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%), a low-scoring affair seems likely. The model suggests a 44% chance for the game to go over 2.5 goals, aligned with a 50% probability for both teams to find the net. The cautious approach of both sides could keep the tally in check, leaning towards an under 2.5 goals outcome.

For those seeking betting angles, the home win at odds of 2.3 with Betsafe offers value, as the model rates it at a 44% probability, presenting a 2% edge. While the over 3.5 goals market shows minor value at odds of 4.42 with both Betsafe and Betsson, the conservative forecast makes it a less appealing prospect. The sharpest play appears to be backing the home side, aligning with the slight model lean and capitalizing on the betting value identified.

Kocaelispor

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #11xP/match #15Points #6

Key players

Florian AyéFxG 0.11 · xT -0.01
Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi AgyeiFxG 0.07 · xT 0.02
Gonçalo Santos SousaRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.20

Gaziantep

Form DWLWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #12xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Halil DervisogluFxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Trivante Vincent StewartFxG 0.50 · xT 0.01
Deian SorescuRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.29

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Kocaelispor 44% · Draw 32% · Gaziantep 24%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - KocaelisporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,78fair 11,06-3 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Gaziantep FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,58fair 16,65-24 %

Miss

Match prediction: Kocaelispor – Gaziantep

Predicted score matrix

Gaziantep →

Kocaelispor →

0–09.1%

0–19.2%

0–25.2%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.4%

1–113.2%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.9%

2–18.6%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.5%

3–13.9%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,35–1,09

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.62

Over 2,544%

@2.38EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kocaelispor or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kocaelispor or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score27%
Leo Myenty Janna Abena to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Kocaelispor44% probability@2.57PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
1 · Kocaelispor44% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Kocaelispor44% probability@2.48BetssonEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kocaelispor	X	2 · Gaziantep
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 3% 2.32	EV+ 8% 3.40	3.10
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 2.48	3.00	2.95
Betsson	EV+ 10% 2.48	3.00	2.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 2.48	3.00	2.95
Pinnacle	EV+ 14% 2.57	3.06	3.12

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Gaziantep win since 15 September — the odds have shortened from 3.49 to 3.12 (−11%).

1+17 %

45 %35 %

2.19 → 2.57

X-5 %

36 %26 %

3.22 → 3.06

2-11 %

34 %24 %

3.49 → 3.12

Over 2,5+8 %

47 %37 %

2.21 → 2.38

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Kocaelispor 1Draw 0Gaziantep 1

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kocaelispor

Gaziantep

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kocaelispor (5–4)

Gaziantep (7–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kocaelispor

Gaziantep

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kocaelispor

Gaziantep

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kocaelispor	Gaziantep
Points	9	8
xPoints	5.3	6.4
xG per match	0.83	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.19

Playing style	Kocaelispor	Gaziantep
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.44	0.44
xT per match	0.85	0.83
xTA per match	1.5	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.18
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	348	340
Passes against per match	417	349
Switches of play per match	22	39.1
Long balls per match	27	43

Set pieces	Kocaelispor	Gaziantep
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	3.2	3.9
Corners against per match	7.1	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.64

Other	Kocaelispor	Gaziantep
Throw-in control	0.64	0.73

The goalkeepers	Serhat Öztaşdelen (Kocaelispor)	Kacper Tobiasz (Gaziantep)
Saves	16	10
Save %	84%	67%
xG prevented	64%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kocaelispor

Fixtures, form & tips

Gaziantep

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep according to our model?

The model gives Kocaelispor a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kocaelispor 44%, draw 32%, Gaziantep 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.