Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig20 September 202614°13 km/h

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ErzurumsporBalanced & physical

SamsunsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Erzurumspor (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.25 (+10 %)

1 · Erzurumspor 37%X 27%36% Samsunspor · 2

37%

27%

36%

Analysis: Erzurumspor – Samsunspor

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Samsunspor's recent skid—a three-game losing streak—throws a shadow over their visit to Erzurum. Despite their possession-oriented play, the visitors have struggled to convert ball control into points. Their 1.1 xG per match suggests potential, but three consecutive losses indicate deeper issues that boost the hosts' chances beyond the market’s expectations.

Erzurum, with a balanced and physical approach, may not dazzle offensively, but they can leverage Samsunspor's vulnerabilities. The hosts' xG of 0.67 per match is modest, yet their physical style might disrupt Samsun's rhythm. Notably, Erzurum excels in creating chances within 8 seconds of winning the ball, with an edge of 0.19 xG in such scenarios compared to Samsun's 0.15. This quick transition could be pivotal, exploiting any gaps in Samsunspor's defense.

The model gives Erzurum a 37% chance of winning, slightly edging out Samsunspor at 36%. The most likely scoreline is a tight 1-1 draw, supported by the 53% likelihood of both teams finding the net. However, considering Samsunspor’s recent form and Erzurum's ability to capitalize on swift counter-attacks, a narrow 1-0 victory for the home side feels plausible. The expected goals (Erzurum 1.15, Samsunspor 1.49) hint at a low-scoring affair, with a 49% probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting leaning towards the under.

Where’s the value? The model's slight preference for the hosts, combined with Samsunspor's ongoing struggles, makes Erzurum an interesting angle for those looking to back the home side, though the underlying numbers (xPoints, xG, xGA) still favor Samsunspor overall. While betting is never a sure thing, the statistical tilt toward Erzurum's physical, counter-attacking prowess against a possession-heavy yet faltering visitor is worth watching.

Erzurumspor

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #17xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

Eren TozluFxG 0.33 · xT -0.02
Brandon BaiyeCDMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Guram GiorbelidzeLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22

Samsunspor

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #5xP/match #17Points #14

Key players

Marius MouandilmadjiFxG 0.52 · xT 0.06
Emre KilincLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Erzurumspor – Samsunspor

Predicted score matrix

Samsunspor →

Erzurumspor →

0–07.6%

0–110.3%

0–27.9%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.0%

1–07.9%

1–112.6%

1–29.1%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.3%

2–04.7%

2–17.0%

2–25.2%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.8%

3–12.7%

3–22.0%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,15–1,49

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.69

Over 2,549%

@2.25EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Erzurumspor or draw (1X)55%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Erzurumspor or draw (1X)55%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Mustafa Fettahoğlu to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Mustafa Fettahoğlu to score24%
Elliot William Watt to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.549% probability@2.25PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
Over 3.527% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
Over 3.527% probability@4.05BetssonEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Erzurumspor	X	2 · Samsunspor
Betsafe	2.62	3.10	2.72
Betsson	2.62	3.10	2.72
Nordicbet	2.62	3.10	2.72
Pinnacle	2.61	3.15	EV+ 8% 2.98

Odds updated 20 Sept, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 1.79 to 1.69 (−5%).

1-1 %

39 %34 %

2.64 → 2.61

X-2 %

33 %28 %

3.23 → 3.15

2+9 %

36 %31 %

2.74 → 2.98

Over 2,5+10 %

47 %42 %

2.05 → 2.25

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Samsunspor have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Erzurumspor

Samsunspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Erzurumspor (2–11)

Samsunspor (6–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Erzurumspor

Samsunspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Erzurumspor

Samsunspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Erzurumspor	Samsunspor
Points	4	4
xPoints	4.4	5.1
xG per match	0.67	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.42

Playing style	Erzurumspor	Samsunspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.41	0.56
xT per match	0.63	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	18	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.24
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.75
Passes per match	340	447
Passes against per match	462	334
Switches of play per match	27.7	34.3
Long balls per match	32	36

Set pieces	Erzurumspor	Samsunspor
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	3.2	3.6
Corners against per match	4.5	6
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.72
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.5

Other	Erzurumspor	Samsunspor
Throw-in control	0.74	0.78

The goalkeepers	Ertugrul Taskiran (Erzurumspor)	Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor)
Saves	8	23
Save %	73%	68%
xG prevented	73%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Erzurumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Samsunspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor according to our model?

The model gives Erzurumspor a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Erzurumspor 37%, draw 27%, Samsunspor 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.