Süper Lig22°23 km/h

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    FenerbahçeFenerbahçeBalanced & physical
    8–0
    EyüpsporEyüpsporLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Fenerbahçe (76%)Best value by the model: 2 · Eyüpspor @ 16.50 (+32 %)

    Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor · Süper Lig

    1 · Fenerbahçe 76%X 16%8% Eyüpspor · 2

    Analysis: Fenerbahçe – Eyüpspor

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Fenerbahçe's dominance at home is well-documented, with a 70% win rate across 37 matches. This resilience forms the backbone of their clash with Eyüpspor, a team that relies on a low defensive block and direct counter-attacks. While the head-to-head sample is small, Fenerbahçe have yet to lose to their visitors since 2023, securing two wins and two draws. The model gives Fenerbahçe a commanding 76% probability to win, reflecting their potent balance and physicality against Eyüpspor’s more limited setup.

    The expected goals tell a clear story: 2.55 for the hosts against 0.71 for the visitors. Fenerbahçe’s attacking prowess should overwhelm Eyüpspor, who struggle to generate high-quality chances, indicated by an xG per match of just 0.77. The odds favor a Fenerbahçe win with likely scorelines such as 2-0 and 3-0, reinforcing the model's lean towards over 2.5 goals, with a 63% probability. Both teams to score is less likely at 47%, underlining the home side's defensive solidity.

    However, there is value in backing the visitors at odds of 16.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates Eyüpspor's chance of winning at 8%, presenting a 28% edge for those willing to gamble against the grain. While Fenerbahçe are clear favorites, the potential return on an upset cannot be ignored.

    FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
    Form LWWLD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #9
    Key players
    • Vedat MuriqiFxG 0.44 · xT 0.04
    • Mert MuldurRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
    • Milan SkriniarCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    EyüpsporEyüpspor
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #7xT #18xP/match #16Points #17
    Key players
    • Massanga MatondoCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
    • Zak Kennedy JulesCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.04
    • Talha ÜlvanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    8 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Fenerbahçe 76% · Draw 16% · Eyüpspor 8%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - EyüpsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 57,05fair 58,17-2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FenerbahceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,69fair 4,38-16 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Fenerbahçe – Eyüpspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Eyüpspor →
    Fenerbahçe →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.1%
    0–12.5%
    0–21.0%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–09.6%
    1–17.2%
    1–22.5%
    1–30.6%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–012.5%
    2–18.9%
    2–23.1%
    2–30.7%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–010.6%
    3–17.5%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–012.4%
    4+–18.8%
    4+–23.1%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-013%
    2. 2.3-011%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.3-18%
    Expected goals
    2,55–0,71
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    @2.75EV+1%
    Over 2,563%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Fenerbahçe to win76%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    67%

    Fair odds

    1.49

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Fenerbahçe to win76%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Dorgeles Nene to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Dorgeles Nene to score35%
    • Jawad El Yamiq to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Eyüpspor8% probability@16.50BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
    • 2 · Eyüpspor8% probability@16.50BetssonEV+32%reference odds
    • 2 · Eyüpspor8% probability@16.50NordicbetEV+32%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FenerbahçeX2 · Eyüpspor
    Betsafe1.185.90
    EV+ 32%
    16.50
    Betsson1.185.90
    EV+ 32%
    16.50
    Nordicbet1.185.90
    EV+ 32%
    16.50
    Paddy Power1.14
    EV+ 5%
    6.50
    EV+ 4%
    13.00
    Pinnacle1.19
    EV+ 20%
    7.42
    EV+ 12%
    13.95

    Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    83 %78 %

    1.19 → 1.19

    X+6 %
    15 %10 %

    7.02 → 7.42

    2+16 %
    9 %4 %

    12.03 → 13.95

    Pinnacle · 19 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Fenerbahçe 2Draw 2Eyüpspor 0
    Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Fenerbahce win 70% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fenerbahçe
    Eyüpspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fenerbahçe (8–6)
    Eyüpspor (2–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fenerbahçe
    Milan Skriniar: 318 passningar, xT 0.5SkriniarNathan Ake: 298 passningar, xT 0.22AkeMattéo Elias Kenzo Guendouzi Olié: 231 passningar, xT 0.75OliéN'Golo Kanté: 188 passningar, xT 0.3KantéMason Will John Greenwood: 155 passningar, xT 0.23GreenwoodNélson Cabral Semedo: 132 passningar, xT 0.1SemedoArchibald Norman Brown: 130 passningar, xT 1.29BrownEderson Santana de Moraes: 109 passningar, xT 0.09MoraesOguz Aydin: 105 passningar, xT 0.22AydinIsmail Yuksek: 99 passningar, xT 0.13YuksekMert Muldur: 83 passningar, xT 0.32Muldur
    Eyüpspor
    Zak Kennedy Jules: 236 passningar, xT 0.22JulesMassanga Matondo: 228 passningar, xT 0.25MatondoJawad El Yamiq: 163 passningar, xT 0.28YamiqHorațiu Alexandru Moldovan: 159 passningar, xT 0.16MoldovanTalha Ülvan: 149 passningar, xT 0.48ÜlvanSimone Giordano: 125 passningar, xT 0.47GiordanoCharles-André Raux Yao: 112 passningar, xT 0.26YaoDavid José Soares Oliveira Furtado Costa: 87 passningar, xT -0.07CostaAnil Yasar: 69 passningar, xT 0.05YasarBilal Boutobba: 63 passningar, xT -0.01BoutobbaKonrad Hubert Michalak: 61 passningar, xT -0.09Michalak
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fenerbahçe
    Milan Skriniar: 318 passningar, xT 0.5SkriniarNathan Ake: 298 passningar, xT 0.22AkeMattéo Elias Kenzo Guendouzi Olié: 231 passningar, xT 0.75OliéN'Golo Kanté: 188 passningar, xT 0.3KantéMason Will John Greenwood: 155 passningar, xT 0.23GreenwoodNélson Cabral Semedo: 132 passningar, xT 0.1SemedoArchibald Norman Brown: 130 passningar, xT 1.29BrownEderson Santana de Moraes: 109 passningar, xT 0.09MoraesOguz Aydin: 105 passningar, xT 0.22AydinIsmail Yuksek: 99 passningar, xT 0.13YuksekMert Muldur: 83 passningar, xT 0.32Muldur
    Eyüpspor
    Zak Kennedy Jules: 236 passningar, xT 0.22JulesMassanga Matondo: 228 passningar, xT 0.25MatondoJawad El Yamiq: 163 passningar, xT 0.28YamiqHorațiu Alexandru Moldovan: 159 passningar, xT 0.16MoldovanTalha Ülvan: 149 passningar, xT 0.48ÜlvanSimone Giordano: 125 passningar, xT 0.47GiordanoCharles-André Raux Yao: 112 passningar, xT 0.26YaoDavid José Soares Oliveira Furtado Costa: 87 passningar, xT -0.07CostaAnil Yasar: 69 passningar, xT 0.05YasarBilal Boutobba: 63 passningar, xT -0.01BoutobbaKonrad Hubert Michalak: 61 passningar, xT -0.09Michalak

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFenerbahçeEyüpspor
    Points73
    xPoints9.35.3
    xG per match1.90.77
    xGA per match0.831.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.07
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.17
    Playing styleFenerbahçeEyüpspor
    Build-up efficiency0.320.27
    Field tilt0.610.43
    xT per match1.30.5
    xTA per match0.971.1
    Won balls, offensive half2419
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.18
    Entries into the box per match158
    Entries into the box against911
    Pass completion %0.820.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.76
    Passes per match443329
    Passes against per match334368
    Switches of play per match33.530.4
    Long balls per match3533
    Set piecesFenerbahçeEyüpspor
    xG from free kicks0.270.23
    Corners per match6.63.6
    Corners against per match3.64.4
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.67
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.5
    OtherFenerbahçeEyüpspor
    Throw-in control0.830.73
    The goalkeepersEderson Santana de Moraes (Fenerbahçe)Horațiu Alexandru Moldovan (Eyüpspor)
    Saves1014
    Save %71%64%
    xG prevented56%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Fenerbahçe
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Eyüpspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor according to our model?

    The model gives Fenerbahçe a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fenerbahçe 76%, draw 16%, Eyüpspor 8%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.