Süper Lig

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    GöztepeGöztepeLow block & direct
    vs
    RizesporRizesporPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Göztepe (43%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.28 (+24 %)

    Göztepe vs Rizespor · Süper Lig

    1 · Göztepe 43%X 30%27% Rizespor · 2

    Analysis: Göztepe – Rizespor

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The tension in this matchup lies in Göztepe's defensive frailties against Rizespor's propensity for possession and high pressing. The hosts have conceded an average of 2.1 expected goals per match, which could be their Achilles' heel against a Rizespor side that has notched up more than four times as many points this season. Yet, Göztepe's direct approach could pose challenges for the visitors, who might be vulnerable to quick counterattacks.

    Despite trailing in the points race, Göztepe exhibits a better xG per match at 1.7 compared to Rizespor's 1.4. This suggests they are creating more quality chances, even if results have not mirrored this. However, with Rizespor's xGA sitting at a mere 0.91, the visiting team has displayed a knack for keeping opponents at bay. The expected goals model leans towards a narrow victory for Göztepe, but with only a slender margin, reflected in the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0.

    Considering the small head-to-head sample of four games since 2023, Göztepe holds the upper hand with three wins and only one loss against Rizespor. Yet, given the current season form and expected goals statistics, this historical edge carries less weight. The probability of a low-scoring affair is underlined by an over 2.5 goals probability of just 45%, with both teams to score hovering at 49%.

    The sharpest angle here lies in the under 0.5 goals market, with odds of 13.0 available on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model assigns a 9% probability to this outcome, giving a 15% value edge. While unlikely, it's a compelling option for those drawn to long shots in what could turn into a tightly contested tussle.

    GöztepeGöztepe
    Form DLLLD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #18xT #13xP/match #7Points #18
    Key players
    • Juan Santos da SilvaLWxG 0.82 · xT 0.13
    • André Henrique da Silva MartinsFxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
    • Rhaldney Norberto Simião GomesCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    RizesporRizespor
    Form WLWLW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #4xP/match #6Points #5
    Key players
    • Ali SoweFxG 0.23 · xT -0.02
    • Attila MocsiCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.22
    • Mithat PalaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: Göztepe – Rizespor

    Predicted score matrix

    Rizespor →
    Göztepe →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.9%
    0–18.3%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.9%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,44–1,02
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @2.25EV+19%
    Over 2,545%
    @1.68

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Göztepe or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Göztepe or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • André Henrique da Silva Martins to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • André Henrique da Silva Martins to score26%
    • Taylan Antalyalı to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.529% probability@4.28BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
    • Under 1.529% probability@4.28BetssonEV+24%reference odds
    • Under 1.529% probability@4.28NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GöztepeX2 · Rizespor
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    2.58
    EV+ 1%
    3.35    		2.58
    Betsson
    EV+ 10%
    2.58
    EV+ 1%
    3.35    		2.58
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    2.58
    EV+ 1%
    3.35    		2.58
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 14%
    2.68
    EV+ 6%
    3.52    		2.64

    Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Rizespor win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 2.92 to 2.64 (−10%).

    1+10 %
    43 %33 %

    2.43 → 2.68

    X+5 %
    33 %23 %

    3.34 → 3.52

    2-10 %
    39 %29 %

    2.92 → 2.64

    Over 2,5-5 %
    60 %50 %

    1.77 → 1.68

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Göztepe 3Draw 0Rizespor 1
    Goals: 12–7 (⌀ 4,8)

    Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Göztepe
    Rizespor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Göztepe (9–13)
    Rizespor (5–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Göztepe
    Rhaldney Norberto Simião Gomes: 141 passningar, xT 0.4GomesNovatus Miroshi: 107 passningar, xT 0.17MiroshiMalcom Bokele Mputu: 105 passningar, xT 0.35MputuTaha Altikardes: 91 passningar, xT 0.22AltikardesArda Kurtulan: 83 passningar, xT 0.58KurtulanEge Yildirim: 70 passningar, xT 0.16YildirimRichard Akonnor: 66 passningar, xT 0.4AkonnorLuka Gugeshashvili: 42 passningar, xT 0.22GugeshashviliAndré Henrique da Silva Martins: 37 passningar, xT 0.04MartinsAlexis Antunes Gomez: 32 passningar, xT 0.12GomezEfkan Bekiroglu: 32 passningar, xT 0.03Bekiroglu
    Rizespor
    Attila Mocsi: 295 passningar, xT 1.1MocsiQazim Laçi: 229 passningar, xT 0.98LaçiModibo Sagnan: 228 passningar, xT 0.16SagnanMithat Pala: 204 passningar, xT 0.72PalaZakaria Ariss: 185 passningar, xT 0.34ArissTaylan Antalyali: 180 passningar, xT 0.18AntalyaliYahia Fofana: 139 passningar, xT 0.17FofanaAhmed Kutucu: 127 passningar, xT 0.44KutucuIbrahim Olawoyin: 112 passningar, xT -0.01OlawoyinAdedire Emmanuel Awokoya-Mebude: 73 passningar, xT 0.46Awokoya-MebudeAli Sowe: 49 passningar, xT -0.13Sowe
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Göztepe
    Rhaldney Norberto Simião Gomes: 141 passningar, xT 0.4GomesNovatus Miroshi: 107 passningar, xT 0.17MiroshiMalcom Bokele Mputu: 105 passningar, xT 0.35MputuTaha Altikardes: 91 passningar, xT 0.22AltikardesArda Kurtulan: 83 passningar, xT 0.58KurtulanEge Yildirim: 70 passningar, xT 0.16YildirimRichard Akonnor: 66 passningar, xT 0.4AkonnorLuka Gugeshashvili: 42 passningar, xT 0.22GugeshashviliAndré Henrique da Silva Martins: 37 passningar, xT 0.04MartinsAlexis Antunes Gomez: 32 passningar, xT 0.12GomezEfkan Bekiroglu: 32 passningar, xT 0.03Bekiroglu
    Rizespor
    Attila Mocsi: 295 passningar, xT 1.1MocsiQazim Laçi: 229 passningar, xT 0.98LaçiModibo Sagnan: 228 passningar, xT 0.16SagnanMithat Pala: 204 passningar, xT 0.72PalaZakaria Ariss: 185 passningar, xT 0.34ArissTaylan Antalyali: 180 passningar, xT 0.18AntalyaliYahia Fofana: 139 passningar, xT 0.17FofanaAhmed Kutucu: 127 passningar, xT 0.44KutucuIbrahim Olawoyin: 112 passningar, xT -0.01OlawoyinAdedire Emmanuel Awokoya-Mebude: 73 passningar, xT 0.46Awokoya-MebudeAli Sowe: 49 passningar, xT -0.13Sowe

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGöztepeRizespor
    Points29
    xPoints6.97.4
    xG per match1.71.4
    xGA per match2.10.91
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.380.17
    Playing styleGöztepeRizespor
    Build-up efficiency0.360.32
    Field tilt0.350.63
    xT per match0.821.2
    xTA per match10.84
    Won balls, offensive half3325
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.24
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.620.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.60.76
    Passes per match195404
    Passes against per match349310
    Switches of play per match17.640.9
    Long balls per match2745
    Set piecesGöztepeRizespor
    xG from free kicks0.010.03
    Corners per match5.35.4
    Corners against per match5.35
    xG per corner0.060.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.52
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.4
    OtherGöztepeRizespor
    Throw-in control0.720.84
    The goalkeepersLuka Gugeshashvili (Göztepe)Yahia Fofana (Rizespor)
    Saves914
    Save %45%88%
    xG prevented21%82%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Göztepe
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rizespor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Göztepe vs Rizespor according to our model?

    The model gives Göztepe a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Göztepe 43%, draw 30%, Rizespor 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.