Gaziantep vs Rizespor: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Süper Lig29 August 202623°1,2 mm40 km/h

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GaziantepPossession control

1–2

RizesporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Rizespor (42%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.94 (+11 %)

1 · Gaziantep 33%X 26%42% Rizespor · 2

33%

26%

42%

Analysis: Gaziantep – Rizespor

Oscar Nilsson · 27 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Rizespor's edge over Gaziantep is clear, with the model favoring them at 42% to take the win, highlighting a potential mispricing by the bookmakers. The odds of 2.62 available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a solid 9% edge over the market's assessment. This is a promising opportunity for those looking at the numbers closely.

Despite Gaziantep's slight lead in actual points this season, their underlying metrics tell a different story. Rizespor have the upper hand in expected goals (1.64 to 1.33) and xPoints (3.6 to 2.9), indicating their performances may soon translate into results. Furthermore, the visitors have shown a slightly better defensive structure, allowing fewer expected goals per match (0.6 to Gaziantep's 0.88).

The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit a small sample of four matches, gives a slight nod to Rizespor with two wins to Gaziantep's one. However, this limited data carries less weight than the current form and expected goals metrics. Such metrics underline Rizespor's potential to disrupt the home side's possession-based play with their high press.

With a 57% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net, the game tilts slightly towards a more open contest. The most likely scorelines, including 1-1 and 1-2, further suggest a competitive battle. However, the numbers favor Rizespor to edge it, perhaps by that 1-2 margin.

The standout betting angle here is the value on Rizespor's win at 2.62, offering a distinct edge for those willing to trust the model's insights over the traditional market. Keep an eye on those odds; they're not just a quirk, but a calculated opportunity.

Gaziantep

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #9xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Trivante Vincent StewartFxG 0.52 · xT 0.01
Deian SorescuRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.48
Alexandru MaximCAMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06

Rizespor

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #7xP/match #4Points #9

Key players

Qazim LaçiFxG 0.46 · xT 0.35
Attila MocsiCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.16
Ahmed KutucuLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Gaziantep 33% · Draw 26% · Rizespor 42%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Çaykur RizesporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,36fair 7,04+4 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Gaziantep FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,77fair 10,65-8 %

Miss

Match prediction: Gaziantep – Rizespor

Predicted score matrix

Rizespor →

Gaziantep →

0–05.4%

0–18.1%

0–26.9%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.5%

1–111.5%

1–29.2%

1–35.0%

1–4+3.0%

2–04.5%

2–17.5%

2–26.1%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.0%

3–13.3%

3–22.7%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,33–1,64

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@1.93

Over 2,557%

@1.94EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rizespor or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rizespor or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Ali Sowe to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Ali Sowe to score24%
Kacper Szymon Kozłowski to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.557% probability@1.94PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
Over 3.535% probability@3.11BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
Over 3.535% probability@3.11BetssonEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gaziantep	X	2 · Rizespor
Betsafe	3.05	3.35	2.25
Betsson	3.05	3.35	2.25
Nordicbet	3.05	3.35	2.25
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 3.27	3.37	2.30

Odds updated 29 Aug, 18:31

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Rizespor win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 2.66 to 2.30 (−14%).

1+29 %

39 %29 %

2.53 → 3.27

X-5 %

32 %22 %

3.54 → 3.37

2-14 %

44 %34 %

2.66 → 2.30

Over 2,5+10 %

57 %47 %

1.76 → 1.94

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Gaziantep 1Draw 1Rizespor 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gaziantep

Rizespor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gaziantep (2–1)

Rizespor (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gaziantep

Rizespor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gaziantep

Rizespor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gaziantep	Rizespor
Points	4	3
xPoints	2.9	3.6
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	0.88	0.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.04

Playing style	Gaziantep	Rizespor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.37	0.8
xT per match	1.1	1.3
xTA per match	0.78	0.64
Won balls, offensive half	22	30
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.28
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	8	6
Pass completion %	0.79	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.77
Passes per match	389	453
Passes against per match	328	300
Switches of play per match	45.1	48.6
Long balls per match	50	47

Set pieces	Gaziantep	Rizespor
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	1	8.4
Corners against per match	4	0.99
xG per corner	0.06	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.11
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0

Other	Gaziantep	Rizespor
Throw-in control	0.8	0.89

The goalkeepers	Kacper Tobiasz (Gaziantep)	Yahia Fofana (Rizespor)
Saves	2	4
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	24%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gaziantep

Fixtures, form & tips

Rizespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gaziantep vs Rizespor according to our model?

The model gives Rizespor a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gaziantep 33%, draw 26%, Rizespor 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.