01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Konyaspor to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Süper Lig19°26 km/h
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KonyasporCounter-attacks & crosses1–2
KocaelisporPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Konyaspor (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kocaelispor @ 4.57 (+17 %)
Konyaspor – Kocaelispor · Süper Lig
1 · Konyaspor 45%X 29%26% Kocaelispor · 2
45%
29%
26%
Analysis: Konyaspor – Kocaelispor
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Konyaspor's recent record against Kocaelispor is balanced, with each team having claimed a victory in their two encounters since 2023. However, such a small sample size provides limited insight, and the focus shifts naturally to current form and expected goals. The hosts are struggling, having lost five matches on the trot. This dismal run casts a long shadow over their chances, suggesting the market might overrate them at 45%.
Despite Konyaspor's favored status, the model's expected goals paint a different picture. With 1.32 xG for the hosts and 1.02 xG for the visitors, the numbers hint at a closely contested match. Konyaspor's counter-attacking style might play into Kocaelispor's hands, as the visitors prefer a possession-based approach. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities, with Konyaspor's defense leaking two goals per game on average (xGA), compared to Kocaelispor's 1.6.
Kocaelispor's edge in points and expected points reflects their more efficient conversion of chances, despite Konyaspor's slightly higher xG per match. The model suggests a cautious affair, highlighting a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome at 13%, followed closely by a 1-0 win for Konyaspor at 12%. These probabilities underline the model's inclination towards a low-scoring draw, with the under 2.5 goals at a 59% likelihood.
The model's overall lean favors Konyaspor at 45%, ahead of the draw at 29% and Kocaelispor at 26%. While Kocaelispor's edge in points and defensive efficiency could tempt bettors toward the visitors, the data on balance points to Konyaspor as the side with the model's favor, even amid their poor run of form.
KonyasporForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #6xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Yhoan Many AndzouanaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.32
- Deniz TurucRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.37
- Jackson Muleka KyanvubuFxG 0.07 · xT -0.09
KocaelisporForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #13xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi AgyeiRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.01
- Manuel Luís da Silva CafumanaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.02
- Massadio HaïdaraLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Konyaspor 45% · Draw 29% · Kocaelispor 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KocaelisporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 22,06fair 19,56+13 %
MissMatchresultat - KonyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,09fair 11,85-23 %
MissMatch prediction: Konyaspor – Kocaelispor
Predicted score matrix
Kocaelispor →
Konyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.1%
0–19.5%
0–25.0%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.4%
1–113.4%
1–26.6%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.4%
2–18.5%
2–24.4%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.7%
3–13.8%
3–21.9%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,32–1,02
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.51
Over 2,541%
@2.42EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Konyaspor to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Marko Jevtović to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Bruno Petković to score23%
- Manuel Luís da Silva Cafumana to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Kocaelispor26% probability@4.57PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 2 · Kocaelispor26% probability@4.50BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- 2 · Kocaelispor26% probability@4.50BetssonEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Konyaspor | X | 2 · Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 2.08 | EV+ 2% 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betsafe | 1.88 | 3.10 | EV+ 15% 4.50 |
| Betsson | 1.88 | 3.10 | EV+ 15% 4.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | 3.10 | EV+ 15% 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.32 | EV+ 17% 4.57 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 16:29
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Konyaspor win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 2.04 to 1.93 (−6%).
1-6 %
51 %46 %
2.04 → 1.93
X-1 %
31 %26 %
3.37 → 3.32
2+23 %
26 %21 %
3.73 → 4.57
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesKonyaspor 1Draw 0Kocaelispor 1
Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- Konyaspor have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Konyaspor
Kocaelispor
Konyaspor (2–5)
Kocaelispor (2–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Konyaspor
Kocaelispor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Konyaspor
Kocaelispor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Konyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| xG per match | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Konyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.65 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 6 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 344 | 346 |
| Passes against per match | 395 | 413 |
| Switches of play per match | 39.8 | 20.2 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Konyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.64 |
| Other | Konyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Deniz Ertas (Konyaspor) | Emir Ortakaya (Kocaelispor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 6 |
| Save % | 55% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor according to our model?
The model gives Konyaspor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Konyaspor 45%, draw 29%, Kocaelispor 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.