01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Austria Wien to win50%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Austrian Bundesliga12°0,3 mm8 km/h
Läs på svenska
Austria WienBalanced & physicalvs
Austria LustenauLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Austria Wien (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Austria Lustenau @ 4.33 (+5 %)
Austria Wien vs Austria Lustenau · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Austria Wien 50%X 26%24% Austria Lustenau · 2
50%
26%
24%
Analysis: Austria Wien – Austria Lustenau
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Austria Wien and Austria Lustenau face off with only two encounters in their recent history, a sample too small to overshadow current form and expected goals. Both sides have shown contrasting starts to the season, with Lustenau edging ahead in both points and expected points. Yet the model, leaning towards Austria Wien with a 50% win probability, suggests a tightly contested affair.
The hosts have struggled offensively, averaging only 0.46 xG per match, overshadowed by a concerning 2.0 xGA. This paints a picture of a team that might dominate possession but lacks the cutting edge in the final third. Austria Lustenau, on the other hand, has a more clinical approach with an xG per match of 1.2, despite having a slightly higher xGA at 1.7. They’ve proven more efficient in converting opportunities, which could be the deciding factor in a game where margins are slim.
Despite Lustenau's early season edge, the expected goals model projects a closely fought contest. The most likely scorelines — 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%) — indicate a match that could swing either way, though Austria Wien has a slight edge in achieving a narrow victory. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 49%, suggesting restraint in front of goal, with both teams to score at 52%. The low scoring tendencies are reflected in the playing styles, where Austria Wien's balance contrasts with Lustenau's direct, low-defence approach.
For bettors, the under 3.5 goals market stands out as a sharp angle. Priced at 1.39 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and rated as a 73% likelihood by the model, this bet carries a 2% edge. Given the expected tight contest and modest scoring probabilities, it's the standout value play.
Austria WienForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #10xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Reinhold RanftlRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
- Tae-Seok LeeLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
- Manfred FischerCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Austria LustenauForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #8xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Albin GashiLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
- Antonio VerinacFxG 0.37 · xT 0.12
- Danilo Teodoro SoaresLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
Match prediction: Austria Wien – Austria Lustenau
Predicted score matrix
Austria Lustenau →
Austria Wien →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–17.2%
0–23.9%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–011.2%
1–112.3%
1–26.2%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.5%
2–24.9%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.8%
3–15.0%
3–22.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,58–1,04
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.04EV+0%
Over 2,549%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Austria Wien to win50%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Florian Wustinger to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Florian Wustinger to score22%
- Emmanuel Chukwu to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Austria Lustenau24% probability@4.33Bet365EV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.551% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.551% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Austria Wien | X | 2 · Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | EV+ 5% 4.33 |
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.77 | 3.96 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 20:30
Odds movement
1-2 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.85
X+4 %
28 %23 %
3.64 → 3.77
2-1 %
26 %21 %
3.99 → 3.96
Over 2,5-6 %
54 %49 %
1.89 → 1.78
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Austria Wien
Austria Lustenau
Austria Wien (3–10)
Austria Lustenau (5–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Austria Wien
Austria Lustenau
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Austria Wien
Austria Lustenau
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Austria Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 5 |
| xPoints | 2.9 | 6.1 |
| xG per match | 0.46 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Austria Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 240 |
| Passes against per match | 464 | 369 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.9 | 20.1 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Austria Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 7.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.5 |
| Other | Austria Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Samuel Sahin Radlinger (Austria Wien) | Domenik Schierl (Austria Lustenau) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 15 |
| Save % | 61% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Austria Wien vs Austria Lustenau according to our model?
The model gives Austria Wien a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Wien 50%, draw 26%, Austria Lustenau 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.