WSG Tirol vs Hartberg: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga12 September 202616°0,1 mm7 km/h

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WSG TirolPossession control

HartbergCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · WSG Tirol (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.11 (+3 %)

1 · WSG Tirol 42%X 27%31% Hartberg · 2

42%

27%

31%

Analysis: WSG Tirol – Hartberg

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

In Austrian Bundesliga matchups, a contest often hinges on tactical contrasts, and this one is no different. WSG Tirol's penchant for possession battles squarely faces Hartberg's reliance on rapid counterattacks and wing play. The home side commands a slight edge, supported by a 42% win probability from the model, yet their historical struggles against Hartberg can't be ignored. Six recent encounters show a daunting 1-1-4 record for Tirol (1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses), though this sample is modest and less weighty than current form and expected goals.

Tirol's possession style should grant them more control, aligning with their 1.55 expected goals compared to Hartberg's 1.18. This advantage amplifies when considering their defensive comparisons: a 1.8 xGA per match versus Hartberg's leaky 2.0. While Hartberg has historically found ways to exploit Tirol's control, this time the odds might just lean differently. The playing conditions, with 2.9 mm of rain, could dampen goal-fests, yet the model still finds a slight over 2.5 goals edge at 51%.

Despite Hartberg's head-to-head dominance, this match might finally see Tirol break the cycle. The most probable scoreline of 1-1 at 12% acknowledges the visitors' knack for making things difficult, but a 1-0 win for Tirol at 10% follows closely, hinting at a potentially pivotal shift. A tight, competitive affair appears on the horizon, with the model slightly favoring Tirol to command proceedings.

For punters seeking value, considering WSG Tirol's win at odds offered by Bet365 at evens or better could offer an attractive proposition. While not a certainty, the blend of tactical nuances and numerical edges positions Tirol as a slightly more promising pick in the betting market. The numbers, despite Hartberg's past supremacy, suggest this may just be Tirol's moment to assert their presence.

WSG Tirol

Form DLLWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #11xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

David GugganigCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Moritz OswaldLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Marco BorasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10

Hartberg

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #9xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Angelo GattermayerFxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
Tobias KainzRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Marco HoffmannFxG 0.44 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: WSG Tirol – Hartberg

Predicted score matrix

Hartberg →

WSG Tirol →

0–06.9%

0–17.4%

0–24.5%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.0%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.2%

2–25.4%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.1%

3–14.8%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,18

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.11EV+3%

Over 2,551%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance WSG Tirol or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance WSG Tirol or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Nikolai Baden Frederiksen to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Marco Philip Hoffmann to score22%
Konstantin Schopp to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.549% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · WSG Tirol	X	2 · Hartberg
Bet365	2.15	3.40	3.00
Pinnacle	2.17	3.60	3.16

Odds updated 11 Sept, 08:26

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 2.27 to 2.11 (−7%).

1+8 %

48 %43 %

2.01 → 2.17

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.70 → 3.60

2-9 %

31 %26 %

3.49 → 3.16

Over 2,5+6 %

59 %54 %

1.64 → 1.73

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

WSG Tirol 1Draw 1Hartberg 4

Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

TSV Hartberg dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

WSG Tirol

Hartberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

WSG Tirol (7–7)

Hartberg (5–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

WSG Tirol

Hartberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

WSG Tirol

Hartberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	WSG Tirol	Hartberg
Points	7	6
xPoints	7.9	5.4
xG per match	1.6	0.93
xGA per match	1.8	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.39

Playing style	WSG Tirol	Hartberg
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.28
Field tilt	0.34	0.26
xT per match	0.64	0.76
xTA per match	1.4	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	20	18
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.18
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	16	19
Pass completion %	0.75	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.67
Passes per match	328	289
Passes against per match	408	430
Switches of play per match	17.1	21.7
Long balls per match	25	34

Set pieces	WSG Tirol	Hartberg
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.5	3.7
Corners against per match	6.5	9.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.57

Other	WSG Tirol	Hartberg
Throw-in control	0.7	0.72

The goalkeepers	Salko Hamzic (WSG Tirol)	Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg)
Saves	22	20
Save %	79%	71%
xG prevented	58%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

WSG Tirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Hartberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins WSG Tirol vs Hartberg according to our model?

The model gives WSG Tirol a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: WSG Tirol 42%, draw 27%, Hartberg 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.